Dems hope for long-shot upset in SD 14 Special Election between Josie Tomkow, Brian Nathan

The Special Election for Senate District 14 Tuesday is only open to Hillsborough County residents within district boundaries, but its results will be watched statewide as both major political parties search for signs ahead of the 2026 Midterms.

For Democrats, the SD 14 contest is a long-shot chance to claw back a seat in the upper chamber. While the ultimate goal for Democrats is a Brian Nathan victory over Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow, even a defeat could feel like a win in this red district.

For Republicans, the race is an opportunity to see just how much Midterm Election year trends will be in play in Florida. Political prognosticators nationwide anticipate Democratic overperformances this year amid ongoing affordability challenges, current frustration over the war in Iran, and historically low approval ratings for the nation’s top Republican, President Donald Trump.

Nathan and Tomkow are running to succeed former state Sen. Jay Collins, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped last year to serve as his Lieutenant Governor.

While the district has been swingy in recent cycles — Collins won it from Democrat Janet Cruz, who won it from Republican Dana Young — voter registration data now puts it solidly in the Republican column.

GOP voters account for nearly 39% of the district’s electorate, with nearly 116,000 voters. Democrats account for just 31%, with nearly 93,000 voters. Nearly 27% of the electorate — just over 79,000 voters — is not affiliated with a political party. Democrats will have to capitalize on that latter demographic to notch an upset.

There’s a reason prediction market giant Kalshi has Tomkow at 94% odds of winning, as of midday Monday.

Tomkow entered the race in November and quickly cleared the field, leaving her unopposed in a GOP Primary after announcing her campaign with support from prominent Republican politicians.

Backers include U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee; state Reps. Lawrence McClure, the House budget chief, Danny Alvarez, Traci Koster and Michael Owen; Sheriffs Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, Grady Judd of Polk County and Chris Nocco of Pasco County; and Hillsborough County Commissioner Christine Miller.

That support also comes with money. At the time she launched her campaign, sources told Florida Politics she had $3 million on hand for the race, though they didn’t note in what accounts.

The most recent reports show Tomkow had about $148,000 on hand in her official campaign account, with another nearly $315,000 in an affiliated political committee, Friends of Josie Tomkow.

None of that accounts for outside spending on her behalf. But even still, it far surpasses the spending capabilities of her challenger. Nathan has raised less than $65,000 via his official campaign and had just over $12,000 remaining on hand as of Feb. 12, the most recent date for which data is available.

And early voting data suggest a GOP advantage for Tomkow. On Monday morning, after early voting had concluded for the race, Republican voter turnout was 3,000 ballots ahead of Democratic turnout. On Friday, the gap had been just 2,000. Earlier in the week it was only about 1,000.

Taken together, all of the data strongly supports a Tomkow win. But it also shows signs of hope for Democrats, who, even if they don’t win, could walk away from Election Night feeling good about their prospects in November if Nathan overperforms.

Collins won his race four years ago with nearly 55% of the vote, a nearly 10-percentage-point victory.

Based on early-vote totals so far, and assuming Republican voters cast a ballot for Tomkow and Democrats vote for Nathan, Tomkow has the edge with 44% of ballots cast, while Democratic ballots account for a little less than 39%. That’s a big overperformance for Democrats compared to the 2022 election.

Such an overperformance could signal trouble ahead for Republicans in November, though it certainly does not guarantee it. This is, after all, Florida, where political outcomes can often buck national trends.

What Democratic strategists are likely watching even closer are the number of independent and third-party voters who have cast a ballot.

If 60% of those voters were to cast a ballot for Nathan — again, assuming voters cast ballots strictly on party lines — he would be at 49% support heading into Election Day, with Tomkow still having the advantage at about 51%.

Tomkow currently represents House District 51 but is facing term limits this year.

Over the past several years, Tomkow has proven herself to be a quiet force in the House. As a cattle rancher, she has provided strong representation for agriculture communities and she was a key member of Speaker Daniel Perez’s leadership team, helping shape numerous legislative packages beyond just her own bills.

Nathan is a journeyman who previously worked as an electrical foreman and industrial electrician for Electro Design Engineering in Tampa. He’s now Vice President of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers local 915. Nathan has collected significant support from numerous unions, including the Florida AFL-CIO, the Hillsborough Classroom Teachers Association, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the local iron workers union.

Nathan is a Navy veteran and Orlando native who moved to Tampa in 2008 after his military career concluded. He attended Hillsborough Community College and earned his undergraduate degrees in philosophy and sociology from the University of Tampa.

SD 14 went unrepresented in the 2026 Legislative Session, but whoever wins Tuesday will be able to serve in a Special Session to pass a budget, which did not get done in the 60-day Regular Session.

Florida Politics will be covering the race in real time, with results from early and mail ballots expected to drop shortly after polls close at 7 p.m.