Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP

Democrats may be better positioned than they have been in years to compete — and potentially win — across Florida in the 2026 Midterms, buoyed by Republican weaknesses and a decisive shift among independent voters, new polling shows.

South Florida-based EDGE Communications and MDW Communications polled 1,834 likely Florida voters between March 27 and April 3. The poll, which carried a 2-percentage-point margin of error, found a political environment that appears increasingly competitive for Democrats in a state long dominated by Republicans.

The Trump effect

At the center of the findings is a warning sign for Republicans: President Donald Trump is underwater with Florida voters, and pollsters say that dynamic could have ripple effects down the ballot.

Trump posts a net negative approval rating of 6.1 percentage points statewide, with particularly sharp declines among no-party voters, where his net favorability is 39.3 points underwater.

While Republican voters remain strongly supportive, the erosion among independents — a critical voting bloc in Florida — is significant.

“Trump is underwater on virtually every issue voters care about most,” pollsters wrote in their analysis.

The data shows Trump struggling even on issues traditionally considered strengths. He holds a net negative 4.9 rating on the economy, with 43.5% of voters strongly opposing his handling of it.

His approval is also -12.7 on government spending and -13.6 on abortion. On foreign policy, including military actions involving Iran, he posts a -6.7 rating.

Trump’s weakest issue in the survey is related to the Jeffrey Epstein files, where he registers a net negative 25.2 approval. Immigration enforcement policies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids and mass deportations, are also viewed negatively overall, with a net rating of -2.7 statewide and -27.7 among independents.

Against that backdrop, Democrats appear to be gaining ground in broader voter sentiment. In a generic congressional ballot test — which asks voters which party they would support without naming specific candidates — Democrats hold a narrow edge.

About 46% of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, compared to 45.2% who intend to side with a Republican and 8.8% who are undecided.

The margin is small, but the underlying coalition shifts are notable. Among no-party voters, Democrats hold a more than 2-to-1 advantage, with 51.9% favoring Democrats compared to 22.7% backing Republicans.

Pollsters said that dynamic reflects a broader trend that could reshape Florida’s political map.

“The Democrats’ lead solidifies how deeply Trump’s weakness is pulling down the GOP brand,” pollsters wrote.

“Critically, Democrats hold a clear advantage among NPA voters, in line with Democratic performance among NPAs in recent Florida Special Elections over the last year and the Miami Mayoral and Boca Raton races, where Democrats flipped those two seats for the first time in 30 years. A deeper pain for Republicans is they have fallen below 90% vote support among their own party, and Republican defection (6.4%) far outpaces Democratic defection.”

Top-of-the-ballot races

The state’s marquee races remain highly competitive.

In a potential General Election matchup for Governor, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are separated by just 0.7 percentage points — well within the poll’s margin of error.

Notably, 18.3% of voters remain undecided in the Governor’s contest, leaving substantial room for movement.

Similarly, a hypothetical U.S. Senate race between Democratic candidate Alex Vindman and incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody is also effectively tied, with just a 1.2-point difference between them.

The race for Attorney General shows a slightly wider gap, though still within striking distance for either party. Democratic candidate José Javier Rodríguez leads Republican incumbent James Uthmeier 42.8% to 39.6%.

Pollsters point to a contrast in favorability ratings — Rodríguez at +3.4 compared to Uthmeier at -8.6 — as a potential advantage for Democrats as the race develops.

They also note Rodríguez’s candidacy as a potential factor in outreach to Hispanic voters, a key demographic in Florida politics.

On the issues

Beyond candidate matchups, the poll underscores the issues driving voter priorities — and the challenges facing both parties.

Economic concerns dominate. Nearly 70% of voters ranked housing affordability, property insurance costs and property taxes among their top three issues. However, when asked to identify their single most important issue, more voters selected corruption (21%) and immigration (13.8%) than any single economic category.

Corruption was included in the top three concerns of nearly 46% of respondents, followed by immigration at 36.5%.

Pollsters suggest that both issues present challenges for Republicans in the current political environment.

“Affordability remains the top issue for the Florida electorate,” said Michael Worley, President and CEO of MDW Communications.

“That may mean different things to different people — housing, gas prices, property insurance, and taxes. Regardless, the clear edge Republicans have held on economic issues in Florida since COVID has gone away as costs continue to skyrocket and both Washington and Tallahassee fail to act.”

The survey also tested support for one of the most closely watched policy proposals in Florida: eliminating property taxes.

While the idea has been promoted by Gov. Ron DeSantis and some Republican lawmakers, the poll found it faces significant hurdles with voters.

Initially, 55.1% of respondents supported a generic property tax elimination amendment — below the 60% threshold required for passage in Florida. But when voters were presented with potential tradeoffs, including the loss of funding for services like police, fire departments, parks and roads, support dropped sharply to 39.4%.

That represents a 21-point swing, highlighting the sensitivity of the issue once voters consider potential consequences.

Support among Republicans also fell below 60% after voters were given additional context, suggesting the proposal lacks unified backing even within the GOP.

“Intuitively, one would expect property tax elimination to be incredibly popular,” said Martin Page, Partner and COO at MDW Communications. “The fact that voters are not on board with this proposal highlights yet another crack in the GOP’s brand, and an uphill battle to get the proposal to 60% at the ballot box.”

Taken together, the poll’s findings point to a more fluid and competitive political landscape in Florida than in recent election cycles.

Christian Ulvert, founder and President of EDGE Communications, said the shifting dynamics — particularly among independent voters — could be decisive in 2026.

“The 2026 environment is shifting in real time, and Democrats should be energized by what we are seeing,” Ulvert said. “NPA voters — the most coveted and hard-to-win bloc in any election — are breaking away from Republicans and moving toward Democrats in numbers we have not seen in decades.”

Ulvert added that voter frustration with political divisions and economic pressures may be driving that shift.

“They are tired of the chaos, tired of the noise, and hungry for candidates who speak to their lives with honesty and purpose,” he said. “Where Democrats show up with a clear, pragmatic vision and the ability to inspire, these voters are responding.”

The survey was weighted to reflect an anticipated turnout model of 44% Republican, 34% Democrat and 22% no-party or third-party voters. The sample included 43% voters age 65 and older, 26% age 50 to 64, 18% age 35 to 49, 9% age 25 to 34 and 4% age 18 to 24. Women made up 55% of respondents, while men accounted for 45%.

By race and ethnicity, the sample was 62.4% White, 18.8% Hispanic, 11.9% Black and 6.9% “other.”

Education levels were evenly split between college-educated and non-college voters. Regionally, respondents were distributed across major media markets, including Tampa (24.5%), Orlando (21.5%), Miami (18%) and others throughout the state.