Politics
December interest rate cut was a close call for some Fed officials, minutes show
Some Federal Reserve officials who supported cutting a key interest rate earlier this month could have instead backed keeping the rate unchanged, minutes released Tuesday show, underscoring the divisions and uncertainty permeating the central bank.
At their December 9-10 meeting Fed officials agreed to cut their key interest rate by a quarter point for the third time this year, to about 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years. Yet the move was approved by a 9-3 vote, an unusual level of dissent for a committee that typically works by consensus. Two Fed officials supported keeping the rate unchanged, while one wanted a larger, half-point reduction.
The minutes underscored the deep split on the 19-member policymaking committee over what constitutes the biggest threat to the economy: weak hiring or stubbornly-elevated inflation. If a sluggish job market is the biggest threat, then the Fed would typically cut rates more. But if still-high inflation is the bigger problem, then the Fed would keep rates elevated, or even raise them. Just 12 of the 19 members vote on rate decisions, though all participate in discussions.
The minutes showed that even some Fed officials who supported the rate cut did so with reservations. Some Fed officials wanted to wait for more economic data before making any further moves, the minutes said. Key economic data on jobs, inflation, and growth were delayed by the six-week government shutdown, leaving Fed officials with only outdated information at their meeting earlier this month.
The minutes don’t identify specific officials. But how they vote is public, and two policymakers dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged: Jeffrey Schmid, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed.
The third dissent was from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who was appointed by President Donald Trump in September and favored a half-point cut.
When the Fed reduces its key rate, over time it can lower borrowing costs for homes, cars, and credit cards, though market forces also affect those rates.
At its December meeting, the Fed also released quarterly economic projections, which also showed the extent of the divisions on the Fed committee. Seven officials projected no cuts in 2026, while eight forecast two or more reductions. Four supported just one cut.
A weaker job market would likely spur the Fed to reduce borrowing costs more quickly. Two weeks ago, the government reported that employers had cut about 40,000 jobs in October and November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high.
Inflation, meanwhile, remains above the Fed’s 2% target, complicating the central bank’s next moves. In November, annual inflation cooled to 2.7%, down from 3% in September, but last month’s data were likely distorted by the shutdown, economists said, which forced the government to estimate many price changes rather than measuring them directly.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the Dec. 10 meeting that the central bank cut rates out of concern that the job market is even weaker than it appears. While government data shows that the economy added just 40,000 jobs a month from April through September, Powell said that figure could be revised lower by as much as 60,000, which would mean employers actually shed an average of 20,000 jobs a month during that period.
“It’s a labor market that seems to have significant downside risks,” Powell told reporters. “People care about that. That’s their jobs.”
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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
A House subcommittee is backing a proposed task force that would monitor and track antisemitic acts in Florida.
The 15-member House Government Operations Subcommittee gave unanimous support to the proposed Antisemitism Task Force measure (HB 111). The bill is sponsored by Rep. Mike Gottlieb, a Davie Democrat who spoke before the subcommittee and said the proposed panel has become necessary as hate crimes against Jewish residents have increased.
“From approximately 2014 to 2024 antisemitic incidents have increased by roughly 893%” across the United States, according to figures from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), Gottlieb told the subcommittee. “That has to be 1,000% at least, because that number is reported incidents and we all know that there are incidents that are not reported.”
In 2024 alone, Gottlieb said, there were more than 9,000 antisemitic incidents in America, according to ADL figures.
Gottlieb’s bill proposes that the Task Force would be an offshoot of the Florida Office of Civil Rights and that office would provide support staff and other administrative services.
The Antisemitism Task Force would be composed of 18 members from across the state. Those panelists would be appointed by various agencies and officials, including the Legislature, Attorney General’s Office, Florida law enforcement and several other organizations. Each member would serve two-year terms.
The panel would also be expected to monitor antisemitic hate crimes and advise the state on possible changes in laws governing hate crimes. The Task Force would automatically disband Oct. 1, 2029, unless lawmakers approve an extension.
Rep. Susan Valdés, a Tampa Republican, asked Gottlieb if the Task Force would only be monitoring incidents of antisemitism or “hate in general.”
Gottlieb said it would be broader.
“The answer would be yes,” Gottlieb said. “You can’t only have one metric, one data point, because you’re going to compare it to other hate, other types of prejudice and racism.”
The bill is next slated to be considered by the House State Affairs Committee.
The measure has a companion bill (SB 1072) ready for consideration in the Senate that is sponsored by Alexis Calatayud, a Miami Republican.
Bills from Jacksonville Republicans that would relax rules for students who volunteer at polling places cleared their first committee hurdles by unanimous votes.
The legislation (SB 564, HB 461), sponsored by Sen. Clay Yarborough and Rep. Kiyan Michael, says the ban on privately-funded election-related expenses would not bar high school students who are registered or preregistered to vote from voluntarily helping poll workers in exchange for community service hours that apply to Bright Futures scholarships.
Students can preregister to vote beginning when they turn 16.
The bill would take effect July 1, meaning that eligible students could begin participating in the process during the August Primaries this year if it becomes law.
Yarborough told the Senate Ethics and Elections Committee that this bill, if passed, “will be one of the greatest firsthand civics lessons, which they can experience as they go along, of one of our greatest rights and what it takes to conduct elections.”
Michael told the House Government Operations Subcommittee the bill allowed students to volunteer on weekends, addressing a potential shortage of volunteers, driving engagement and teaching a “civic lesson.”
“We’re always talking about, ‘We need to have our kids doing something positive,’ and this gives them the ability to volunteer at our polling locations,” she said.
Asked about potential dangers to the young volunteers from violence by Republican Rep. Paula Stark, Michael expressed confidence that the lead poll worker and the Supervisor of Elections could handle any issues.
Duval County Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland spoke on behalf of the bill in both committees.
He said his grandson was looking for community service opportunities, and said volunteering would help students understand the process and get “exposed” to the role and “maybe come back and be part of our team in the future.”
“Maybe in the future, I’ll have a future poll worker,” he said in the House committee.
He also said that in the case of liability issues, the Supervisor of Elections would be responsible, just as with anyone else in a polling location.
The bills, which are identical, each have two committee stops ahead.
The League of Women Voters and the Southern Poverty Law Center support the legislation.
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