Politics
David Jolly odds of winning Governor’s race upgraded by Larry Sabato’s ‘Crystal Ball’
A Democrat hasn’t won a race for Governor since 1994.
Larry Sabato, the well-regarded political analyst, is now giving Democrat David Jolly a somewhat improved chance in Florida’s gubernatorial race compared to earlier assessments.
As part of three re-ratings of gubernatorial races around the country, Sabato’s Crystal Ball now sees Florida’s gubernatorial race as a “likely” Republican win, which is better for Democratic purposes than the “safe” designation it previously had.
Sabato cites a University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll showing Republican Byron Donalds leading Jolly by five points. That data underpins the site’s current outlook on the race.
UNF’s poll is part of a larger trend of recent polls showing the same spread and that, coupled with the Governor’s Office being open in this election, drives the reconsideration of the race.
Noting that Jolly would “become a somewhat rare former Republican to win a key Democratic Primary this cycle” if he is nominated, as is almost universally expected, Sabato’s site stops short of calling the race “truly competitive.”
The “Crystal Ball” does see Donalds calling for debates with Jolly as proof that his campaign senses pressure, since “candidates who are comfortably ahead are not usually the ones pressing for debates.”
Earlier, Sabato rated a possible Senate matchup between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Alex Vindman as ‘likely Republican’ as well.
He says that the ratings were conferred “for essentially the same reason – a credible opponent in a state that, however red it’s become, may not have entirely lost its capacity to produce an intriguing statewide race.”
Donalds’ campaign scoffed at Sabato’s read.
“Ask Larry Sabato how the Kamala Harris presidency he predicted is going. Florida is a red state and will remain a red state in November when Byron Donalds is elected the next Governor,” said Chief Strategist Ryan Smith.
Jolly’s campaign has been contacted for comment. Any response will be added when available.