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David Jolly in dead heat with Byron Donalds, Paul Renner

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A new poll shows a tight race for Florida Governor despite a distinct voter advantage for the GOP.

The poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International for Democrat David Jolly’s campaign, shows Jolly 1 point ahead of Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds and 2 points behind Paul Renner, a former Florida House Speaker who is also seeking the GOP nomination.

Against Donalds, Jolly posted 41% support, compared to 40% for the current U.S. Representative, who is running with powerful support from President Donald Trump.

Against Renner, Jolly posted 40% support, 2 points behind Renner’s 42%. Under both scenarios there are still plenty of undecided voters, with 19% unsure in a Jolly/Donalds matchup and 18% undecided when Jolly is pitted against Renner.

Results of the latest poll are within the margin of error, which is 4 percentage points.

The results are an improvement from June, when a Victory Insights poll showed Jolly trailing Donalds by 5 percentage points, with nearly 32% still undecided.

Jolly, a former U.S. Representative who served as a Republican and later dumped the GOP to become an independent, is now running for Governor as a Democrat. He’s banking on pocketbook issues to bridge the partisan divide in the state, which currently favors Republicans with a more than 1.3 million voter advantage.

The poll queried respondents about their top concerns, with 41% citing either affordability (23%), inflation (10%) or jobs and the economy (8%) as a top concern.

“Change is coming to Florida. I’ve visited with voters in town halls and communities all across Florida — red, blue, and down the middle. We’ve built a coalition of Floridians focused on solving the state’s affordability crisis in housing — a coalition that simply believes the economy should work for everyone, the government should effectively serve our communities, and we should be a state that empowers all our people,” Jolly said in a statement about the poll.

“What we also know is that Republican leaders in our state have gone too far. They’re ignoring the affordability crisis, dividing us with culture wars, and now attacking childhood vaccines.”

The poll also asked about the DeSantis administration’s plans to erase vaccine mandates in Florida, with 60% of voters opposing such a move. A plurality of voters surveyed, 43%, strongly opposed removing vaccine mandates. Meanwhile, nearly half of voters (48%) said they opposed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ plan to redraw congressional seats ahead of the 2026 Midterms.

And there’s more good news for Jolly in the poll. Broken down by party affiliation, it appears he’s drawing support from across the aisle. While Jolly earned 41% support from respondents in a hypothetical matchup with Donalds, only 34% of the poll respondents self-identified as Democrats. Republicans made up 43% of respondents, while no-party and third-party voters accounted for 23%.

It’s also worth noting that while the poll has Renner performing better against Jolly than Donalds, Renner’s chances of surviving the GOP Primary appear grim.

While 55% of Republican voters surveyed were still undecided in the race, a vast majority of those who had picked a favorite were on Team Donalds, with 37% support to just 6% support for Renner. The remaining 2% supported another candidate, which could be indicative of voters hoping former state Sen. and now-Lt. Gov. Jay Collins will hop in the race.

Jolly took to social media Wednesday to celebrate the results.

“This is more than just a number. It’s a sign that Democrats, Independents, and Republicans alike have had enough of the chaos,” Jolly wrote on X. “It’s a sign that Floridians are ready for something better.”

He noted that his campaign still has “an entire year of campaigning” and that “this race is going to be incredibly close.”

If the poll is anywhere near accurate, and the race does end up being close, it would be a huge departure from three years ago, when DeSantis walloped then-Democratic nominee Charlie Crist by nearly 20 percentage points.

The poll was taken Sept. 7-9 among 631 likely 2026 General Election voters.


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Rolando Escalona wins runoff for Miami Commission, denying Frank Carollo a trip back to City Hall

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First-time candidate Rolando Escalona just denied perpetuating a Miami political dynasty.

With all precincts reporting, a full tally of early votes and a partial count of mail-in ballots, Escalona took 53% of the vote in a runoff race, defeating former City Commissioner Frank Carollo for a seat on the panel long held by the Carollo family.

Escalona, who moved to Miami from Cuba 11 years ago, will succeed outgoing Commissioner Joe Carollo, Frank’s brother, in representing District 3, which spans Little Havana, East Shenandoah, West Brickell and parts of Silver Bluff and the Roads.

“Tonight, the people of District 3 made history and sent a powerful message that our future belongs to those who put residents first, not political dynasties. I am humbled and deeply grateful to the voters who believed in a new generation of leadership, in accountability, in transparency — and in the promise that City Hall can once again work for the people it serves,” Escalona said in a statement.

“My journey from arriving in Miami with nothing, to earning the opportunity to represent this community I love, is only possible because of the trust and support of neighbors across Little Havana, East Shenandoah, The Roads, and beyond. Now the real work begins: restoring integrity, fixing what’s broken, ensuring safer streets, improving city services, and helping every family and small business in District 3 thrive. I am ready to serve, ready to listen, and ready to deliver results on day one.”

The contest was marked by unusual turbulence, as both candidates faced eligibility challenges that threatened to knock them off the ballot.

Escalona survived a residency challenge in October after a rival candidate accused him of faking his address. A Miami-Dade Judge rejected the claim following a detailed, three-hour trial that examined everything from his lease records to his Amazon orders.

And after the Nov. 4 General Election — when Carollo took about 38% of the vote and Escalona took 17% to outpace six other candidates — Carollo cleared his own legal hurdle when another Judge ruled he could remain in the race despite the city’s new lifetime term limits that, according to three residents who sued, should have barred him from running again.

The plaintiffs have since filed a motion to appeal the ruling, which found that removing Carollo from the ballot would be unconstitutional and disenfranchise voters who supported both him and the referendum that led to the new term limits.

Escalona, 34, insisted voters were ready to move on from the chaos and litigation surrounding Joe Carollo, whose tenure included a $63.5 million judgment against him for violating the First Amendment rights of local business owners and the cringe-inducing firing of a Miami Police Chief, among other controversies.

A former busboy who rose through the hospitality industry to manage high-profile Brickell restaurant Sexy Fish while also holding a real estate broker’s license, Escalona ran on a promise to bring transparency, better basic services, lower taxes for seniors and improved permitting systems to the city.

He vowed to improve public safety, support economic development, enhance communities, provide more affordable housing, lower taxes and advocate for better fiscal responsibility in government.

Carollo, a 55-year-old CPA by trade, argued the district needs an experienced leader. He pointed to his record balancing budgets and pledged a residents-first agenda focused on safer streets, cleaner neighborhoods and responsive government.

He was the top fundraiser in the District 3 race this cycle, amassing about $501,000 between his campaign account and political committee, Residents First, and spending about $389,500 by the last reporting dates.

Escalona, meanwhile, reported raising close to $109,000 through his campaign account and spending all but $6,000 by Dec. 4.



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Gelien Perez, Willy Marrero win runoffs for Hialeah City Council

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Hialeah voters just picked two new local policymakers in runoff elections for the City Council.

In a race for the panel’s Group 3 seat, Gelien Perez outpaced Jessica Castillo with nearly 80% of the vote.

For the Group 4 seat, William “Willy” Marrero took 71% of the vote to defeat Javier Morejon.

Tuesday’s contests presented one of the first real tests of how much sway new Mayor Bryan Calvo — who made history last month as the youngest person ever elected Hialeah Mayor — will have as he prepares to take office.

He endorsed Perez and Marrero, a strategic pairing that blended rival factions from the mayoral contest into his new governing coalition. Both ran with political slates opposing him.

He told the Miami Herald last month that he hoped to create “a coalition to approve the agenda,” without an expectation that Perez and Matteo “will vote with (him) 100% of the time.”

They also promised to give him an advantage in the upcoming appointment to fill Jesus Tundidor’s soon-to-be-vacant seat. Tundidor ran unsuccessfully for Mayor.

(L-R) Jessica Castillo and Gelien Perez competed in Group 3. Images via the candidates.

Perez, a 35-year-old former city Human Resources Director and one-time mayoral aide, campaigned on supporting first responders and small businesses, improving infrastructure and parks, expanding senior services and rejecting millage rate increases.

But her tenure as HR Director drew scrutiny. A Miami-Dade ethics probe found employees under her influence received sizable raises. At the same time, she acted as their real estate agent.

Castillo, 37, ran as an independent voice focused on transparency, accountability, traffic relief, infrastructure upgrades and lower taxes. She kept her campaign largely offline, with no website and minimal social media activity.

(L-R) William “Willy” Marrero and Javier Morejon ran for the City Council’s Group 4 seat. Images via LinkedIn and Javier Morejon.

Marrero, a 23-year-old Florida International University student and former Council aide, ran on a platform that emphasized affordability, issues facing working families and seniors, and support for first responders.

Earlier this year, three Council members attempted to appoint him to the same seat he now seeks, but opposition from others blocked the move.

Morejon, a 34-year-old land-use specialist with an extensive volunteer résumé, ran on a promise to prioritize infrastructure repairs, government transparency, beautification and reducing the cost of city services.

Hialeah elects Council members at large, meaning all voters in the city could cast ballots in both races.

Tuesday’s winners earned four-year terms.



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Roger Chapin beats Mira Tanna in Orlando City Council runoff

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Roger Chapin won his Orlando City Council bid Tuesday night, following the footsteps of his trailblazing mom into public office.

Chapin captured 51% of the vote to beat Mira Tanna in the District 3 runoff, according to unofficial election results.

Chapin had the fundraising advantage and better name recognition as the son of former Orange County Mayor Linda Chapin. His war chest was $293,000 compared to Tanna’s $114,000.

Chapin and Tanna were neck-and-neck in the Nov. 4 election when they were among five candidates on the ballot. Only 14 votes separated Chapin and Tanna, and neither secured a majority of the vote, sparking Tuesday’s runoff.

Chapin will be the first new Orlando City Commissioner to represent District 3 in 20 years. Longtime District 3 Commissioner Robert Stuart said he was ready to step down and allow others to lead in city government.

District 3 covers Baldwin Park, Audubon Park, College Park, Rosemont and a few other neighborhoods north of Colonial Drive.

The four-year nonpartisan term currently pays $79,343 annually.

Chapin’s move to City Hall has been nearly a quarter-century in the making.

Chapin ran for Orlando City Council in 2002 and lost. In the years that followed, the College Park resident found other ways to get involved in public service, since he said he figured he would never run for elected office again.

Chapin got on the Municipal Planning Board, the Downtown Development Board, the Orlando Utilities Commission, the oversight Committee for the construction of the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts and more. Chapin argued that made him the most experienced candidate in the race. A Democrat, he promised to govern down the middle and work with both sides of the aisle.

Chapin’s supporters included Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, Stuart, Orange County Sheriff John Mina, and Chris Durant, who placed third in the Nov. 4 election. Durant got paid $6,000 to help Chapin on the campaign trail in November and part of December, according to the latest campaign finance reports.

Chapin also won big endorsements from the Orlando Sentinel editorial board, the Orlando Regional Realtors Association and the Central Florida Hotel and Lodging Association.

But the race for District 3 was tight. Tanna ran a grassroots campaign backed by popular Orlando Democrats in U.S. Rep Maxwell Frost and state Rep. Anna Eskamani.

“Mira has spent decades in public service, holding corporations and corrupt officials accountable while fighting for communities too often overlooked. But tonight, voters chose a different path,” said Moné Holder, Chief Advocacy and Political Officer of Florida Rising, a grassroots group that endorsed Tanna, in a statement. “We hope the winner in District 3, Roger Chapin, will prioritize what our communities demanded throughout this campaign: affordable housing, economic development that benefits every family, and deep respect for immigrant communities. These needs cannot be ignored; they must be at the top of the Council’s agenda.”

 



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