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Daniella Levine Cava poses strong threat to María Elvira Salazar in CD 27

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Miami-Dade Democrats’ best shot at unseating three-term Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar may not even be in the race, according to new polling Kaplan Strategies.

The Kissimmee-based political communications firm surveyed 804 likely General Election voters late last month. Its finding: Miami-Dade voters view county Mayor Daniella Levine Cava more favorably than Salazar, and more would side with her next year in a head-to-head matchup with the incumbent.

Levine Cava, a rumored 2026 candidate for Governor, leads Salazar among voters by 2 percentage points, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, making the race for Florida’s 27th Congressional District “much more competitive” than previously reported.

“This result suggests a potential battleground district heading into 2026,” Kaplan Strategies principal Doug Kaplan wrote.

Kaplan polled voters on four current or potential clashes between Salazar and Democratic candidates. Salazar didn’t exceed 45% support in any matchup.

Fifty-two percent of respondents also said the federal government is on the “wrong track,” and 49% said the same about Congress, with 39% and 35%, respectively, saying the opposite.

In terms of favorability, 45% said they like Levine Cava, with more than half agreeing their opinion of her is “very favorable.” Forty percent said similarly about Salazar. About 1 in 5 respondents said they were uncertain how they felt.

“This polling suggests national and local operatives should take Florida CD 27 seriously as a competitive swing district,” Kaplan wrote, “especially given the underlying issues driving voter decisions: inflation, immigration, and crime.”

Of three current Democratic challengers Kaplan queried voters about — Mike Davey, Alexander Fornino and Richard Lamondin — Davey polled the strongest, with 38% saying they’d support him compared to 45% who said the same of Salazar.

Fornino and Lamondin polled at 35% and 34%, respectively, with Salazar’s 45% support remaining steady against both.

Image via Kaplan Strategies.

Kaplan did not ask voters about Democrat Robin Peguero, who filed for the race July 15.

Levine Cava’s entry into the contest would tilt things in Democrats’ favor, according to the poll, which found 44% of likely voters would choose her over Salazar, who garnered 42% support.

Notably, Republicans made up 47% of respondents, while Democrats comprised 29% and no- or third-party voters made up the rest. Most (40%) identified as conservative, while 38% said they held moderate political views and 22% said they were liberal.

An overwhelming share (44%) cited the economy as the most important issue in the 2026 election, followed by immigration (15%), health care (11%), national security and defense (10%) and social issues (7%).

Seventy percent of respondents were Hispanic, while 21% were non-Hispanic White, 6% were Black, 1% were Asian and 2% identified as “other.”

Most were women (53%), and the poll skewed older; 69% of respondents were 50 or older, compared to 21% who were 30-49 and 10% who were 18-29.

A marginal majority (51%) view President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis unfavorably.

Image via Kaplan Strategies.

CD 27 covers Miami, Coral Gables, Cutler Bay, Key Biscayne, Pinecrest, North Bay Village, South Miami, West Miami and several unincorporated areas in Miami-Dade.

Salazar won re-election last year by nearly 21 points. But April 1 Special Elections eroded Trump’s November margins of victory by double digits in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, giving Democrats hope for a flip in less-red CD 27.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has designated CD 27 a “District in Play.”


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Darren Soto refuses to call for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation

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U.S. Rep. Darren Soto is refusing to say whether indicted U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick should vacate her seat in Congress.

Video obtained by Florida Politics shows Soto being confronted on Capitol Hill. “Will you call on Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick to resign?” the videographer asks.

Initially, Soto remains silent, but the questioner suggests that silence shows “support” for someone who “stole $5 million in health care funds for the most vulnerable.” The Kissimmee Democrat then responds but continues walking away from the camera. He then conflates a censure motion against U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, a New Smyrna Beach Republican, and Cherfilus-McCormick, a Miramar Democrat.

“Both Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick, both will have due process. Thank you,” Soto said.

Both Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills remain the subjects of ongoing House Ethics Committee investigations. But only Cherfilus-McCormick now faces criminal prosecution for alleged financial crimes.

A grand jury in November indicted Cherfilus-McCormick on charges she stole $5 million in disaster relief funds to finance her 2021 congressional campaign.

The indictment alleges that Cherfilus-McCormick and her brother, Edwin Cherfilus, secured funding intended for a COVID vaccine distribution program, but when overpayments were made, she routed the spending through several accounts that later donated the funds as campaign contributions.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said pursuant to House rules that Cherfilus-McCormick had to give up her ranking status on the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. Local Democrats have started to issue calls for the Miramar Democrat’s resignation. But there have been no calls from Democratic members of Congress.

U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, has said if she won’t resign, he will move for her expulsion.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which lists Soto as a target in 2026, slammed Soto’s unwillingness to criticize a fellow Democrat.

“Darren Soto’s refusal to call on Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick to resign is unacceptable,” said NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole. “Floridians deserve a representative who fights for them, not his taxpayer-thieving colleague.”



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Lawmakers propose tough penalties for adults who involve minors in animal cruelty

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Bipartisan legislation filed this week would expand Florida’s criminal penalties for adults who involve children in acts of animal cruelty or expose them to violent offenses against animals.

Democratic Sen. Kristen Arrington and Republican Rep. Linda Chaney filed the legislation (SB 676, HB 559). The bills would add new crimes to state law that make it a third-degree felony for an adult to entice a minor to commit animal cruelty, or for an adult to commit animal cruelty in the presence of a minor. 

The lawmakers cite studies that show children who witness acts of animal cruelty experience an increase in mental health issues, along with an increased likelihood of engaging in violence themselves. By addressing the cycle of abuse early on, they say children can be shielded from additional trauma caused by witnessing violence.

The proposal would also create offenses for adults who involve minors in animal fighting or baiting, and for sexual activities with animals, while also ranking the new crimes on the state’s offense severity chart and increasing penalties for certain felony offenses. If approved, the act would take effect Oct. 1, 2026.

Arrington, of Kissimmee, said the goal is to strengthen protections for both children and animals.

“Exposing children to acts of animal cruelty not only harms animals but has a profound negative impact on children’s emotional development and wellbeing” Arrington said in a statement. “This bill is meant to protect both our youth and our animals, ensuring that those who would involve minors in such heinous acts face strict consequences.”

Chaney, of St. Pete Beach, said animal crimes committed in front of children are closely linked with other forms of family violence.

“Committing animal crimes in front of minors is a serious issue that often co-occurs with other forms of family violence and can have severe, long-term traumatic effects on the children involved” Chaney said. “We must do all we can to break generational cycles of violence. This bill can do that.”

Democratic Rep. Johanna López of Orlando signed on as a prime co-sponsor.

“I’m honored to join Senator Arrington and Representative Chaney in advancing reforms that protect the safety and mental health of our minors and ensure that those who abuse our children or our pets are held accountable,” López said.



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Florida delegation warns Donald Trump against new offshore drilling plan

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U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan and the full Florida congressional delegation are urging President Donald Trump to keep offshore drilling away from the state’s coastlines, pressing him to maintain a moratorium he put in place in 2020.

Buchanan, co-Chair of the 30-member bipartisan delegation, joined U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and Sen. Ashley Moody in leading a letter asking Trump to uphold his executive order extending a ban on oil and gas leasing off Florida’s Gulf and east coasts through 2032.

“President Trump made the right call in 2020 when he protected Florida from offshore drilling, and we’re asking him to keep those safeguards in place,” Buchanan said. “Florida’s coastline is essential to our tourism-based economy, environment and military readiness. A single mistake offshore could cost our state billions of dollars. We cannot afford to lose even an inch of these critical protections.”

The Florida lawmakers sent the letter in response to a program proposed by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which would open part of the Eastern Gulf of America to new oil and gas drilling. The area overlaps with waters explicitly protected under Trump’s executive order.

In the letter, the delegation expressed strong opposition to any attempts to expand offshore oil and gas drilling off Florida’s coasts to protect “the incredible value Florida’s pristine coasts have to our state’s economy, environment, and military community.” They added that Trump’s 2020 action received overwhelming and bipartisan support.

Lawmakers also warn that the newly proposed leasing area falls inside the Gulf Test Range, a large military training zone used for advanced air and weapons systems testing. They describe the range as a critical national security asset.

“The Gulf Test Range remains an integral part of Department of War training to ensure mission readiness and is supported by multiple military bases in Florida’s Panhandle,” the lawmakers wrote. “Collectively, these bases employ tens of thousands of military and civilian personnel and are of critical importance to national security.”

The area is the largest multidomain military training and testing complex in the country, and the lawmakers stated that “protecting this range from encroachment, including oil exploration, is essential.” The letter says more than 50,000 jobs in the Panhandle depend directly on the military facilities tied to the range.

The delegation cites Eglin Air Force Base as a key example, noting it “supports 20,000 personnel, provides the country with $11 billion in economic impact every year, and currently boasts 123,000 square miles of water range, which would all have to be reduced in an instance of an encroachment of the Gulf Test Range.”

The delegation also points to the economic weight of Florida’s tourism industry, and its vulnerability to fallout from potential oil spills, arguing that the risks outweigh any short-term gains.

“Florida’s beaches alone generate more than $127.7 billion per year in tourism spending and support over 2.1 million tourism-related jobs,” lawmakers wrote. “Unfortunately, all these resources suffered devastating harm during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010. That disaster wiped billions of dollars from Florida’s industries and caused irreparable damage to our environment and coastal communities.”

“For these reasons, we urge you to uphold your existing moratorium and keep Florida’s coasts off the table for oil and gas leasing,” they added. “Florida’s economy, environment, and military readiness depend on this commitment.”

Every member of the Florida congressional delegation signed the letter, including Buchanan, Scott, Moody and U.S. Reps. Aaron Bean, Gus Bilirakis, Kat Cammack, Kathy Castor, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Mario Díaz-Balart, Byron Donalds, Neal Dunn, Randy Fine, Lois Frankel, Scott Franklin, Maxwell Frost, Carlos Giménez, Mike Haridopolos, Laurel Lee, Anna Paulina Luna, Brian Mast, Cory Mills, Jared Moskowitz, Jimmy Patronis, John Rutherford, María Elvira Salazar, Darren Soto, Greg Steube, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Daniel Webster and Frederica Wilson.



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