Dallas takes on Arizona on Monday Night Football, and Gary Greene has the plays
NFL WEEK 9 MONDAY NIGHT PREVIEW ~ ARIZONA @ DALLAS
VEGAS ODDS: DALLAS (-3) ~ TOTAL: (53 ½) TEAM TOTALS: DALLAS (28 ½) ~ ARIZONA (24 ½) ARIZONA (2-5) / (1-2 ON ROAD) ~ DALLAS (3-4-1) / (2-0-1 AT HOME)
ARIZONA (#22) OFFENSE (110R-220P) vs. DALLAS (#31) DEF (146R-259P) DALLAS (#2) OFFENSE (120R-264P) vs. ARIZONA (#20) DEF (101R-235P)
DALLAS LOOKS TO REIGNITE TORRID HOME SCORING OFFENSE!
The Cowboys have only played 3 Home games these first 8 games and what a difference home cooking has been for the Boys Offense as they have scored at least (40) points in all 3 Home games this season (40, 40, 44). Dallas QB Dak Prescott has been fantastic at Home averaging (315) passing yards and completing (74%) of his passes. He has an Interception rate of (0.8%) and he’s been sacked only (2%) of their plays (#2 in the NFL).
Prescott will be chomping at the bit to rebound off his worst game all season last week where he had (0) TD passes and only (188 passing yards – season low) and 2 Interceptions (the only 2 Turnovers by Dallas the past 5 games combined).
ARIZONA GOES ON THE ROAD LOOKING TO END 5 GAME LOSING SKID!
The 2025 season started off great for the Cardinals with 2 wins out the gate and a renewed energy that this team could compete for a Playoff spot. Well folks the next 5 games all ended with a loss and to make matters worse they lost those 5 games by a combined 13 points. No loss was by over 4 points. All 7 games this season were decided by a TD or less.
Tonight they will once again be without starting QB K. Murray as long time veteran QB J. Brissett gets the start. There has been no dropoff at all and in fact the Cards Offense has averaged more points and more total yards with Brissett under Center.
He’s averaging (300) passing yards and points per game in his 2 starts.
NEITHER TEAM CAN STOP THE PASS!
Both teams have really struggled to stop the Pass as the Cowboys Defense is allowing the second most (259) Passing yards and the Cardinals Defense the 7th most (235).
The Cards Defense hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to pass for under (200) yards the entire season. Arizona will be entering this game with the Defense off two games where they were on the field for 70 of the 120 minutes.
It’s hard to get your Defense off the field if you can’t get to the opposing QB and the Cardinals only have (4) sacks the past (3) games and if they keep up at that porous rate they are in big trouble as Cowboys QB Prescott has been sacked only (5x) the past (5) games combined.
BOTH TEAMS DEFENSES HAVE RUN OUT OF GAS IN THE 4TH QUARTER!
Most teams that struggle to stop their opponents from scoring in the key quarter (4th) each game will almost assuredly have an overall losing record.
Well this game pits the worst vs. the 3rd worst in Defensive points allowed in the 4th quarter. Arizona’s D has allowed a league 3rd most (76) fourth quarter points and the Cowboys Defense has allowed the most (78).
Making this stat for the Cardinals even worse is the fact they have scored the least amount of points in the critical 4th quarter (29) the entire season.
TOP TRENDS TO WATCH FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT AFFAIR!
1). ARIZONA: (4-0) ATS on the Road their last 4 on the highway. 2). ARIZONA: (1-4) ATS when playing on Monday Nights their past 5. 3). DALLAS: Has committed only 1 Turnover at Home all season. 4). DALLAS: Is averaging (41) points per game at Home this season.
TOP PROP BET TO WATCH CLOSELY
The Cardinals Offense simply doesn’t possess star WR talent and the one real weapon all season has been stud Tight End Trey McBride, who leads the team with (47) receptions, Touchdowns (4), yards per game (60), first downs (24) and yards after the catch (185).
The second best receptions guy is WR M. Harrison with only (24) catches all season long. McBride has at least (5) catches in every game thus far and he has (18) catches, (3) TD’s the past 2 games with Brissett as the starter.
McBride had only (1) TD catch all season prior to the past 2 games so it’s clear he has great chemistry with Brissett as the quarterback.
GARY’S FINAL PASS
This isn’t a dreamy matchup as both teams have won only 3 of their last 10 games overall. It’s not enough you will see a team with a top 2 Offense and a bottom 2 Defense but that’s where we find the Cowboys.
Although the Cards Offense has fared better with Brissett in passing yards he’s also been sacked (8x) as he holds onto the ball often way too long and eventually pays the price (last week he was sacked 6x).
The Cards Offensive Line has been shaky all season allowing both their QB’s to be sacked (24x). The Cowboys Defense has (9) of their (14) sacks at Home so they should be able to generate at least 3 sacks here tonight.
When you have a terrible Defense it’s hard to really look to “Bet ON” those types of teams but in this rare case the Cowboys have too many huge advantages to not side with them here.
BIG WR DUO
They have 2 studs at WR (Pickens and Lamb) who are both on pace to average (80+) receiving yards for an entire season. No duo has accomplished this rare feat in the past 5 seasons. Gigantic advantage to Dallas from that standpoint tonight.
I am a Commanders fan so I almost always root for Dallas to lose but the fact of the matter here tonight is Dak Prescott at Home is as good as it gets for any teams QB when playing at Home. He’s thrown only one interception at home and has gone (31-14-1) after a loss since 2016.
Dak’s coming off his worst game all season and will really feast being back home in the friendly AT&T Stadium confines. He’s led the Cowboys to a league leading (101) second quarter points and there won’t be enough pressure by the Cards pass rush to affect his performance tonight.
I’ll side with the team averaging a whopping (41) points per game at Home over the team that has only one sack in each Road game this season and one that has zero wide receiver talent vs. one that is overloaded with wide receiver talent to somehow try and keep up score for score with this very explosive Cowboys Offense.
We won last nights Free Pick as Seattle slaughtered my hapless Commanders team in very easy wire to wire fashion so hoping for a Prime Time TV sweep here with another rocking chair type winner to close out Week 9.
GARY’S FINAL PREDICTION
Dallas wins by 10!
@GARYGREENEWINS Get all Gary’s FB Magazine’s NFL stats pages Free at: GARYWINS.COM
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.