Just over seven months from Election Day, Democrat Curtis Calabrese is narrowly leading incumbent Republican Marci Woodward in a race for the District 4 seat on the Palm Beach County Commission, new polling shows.
An internal survey for Calabrese’s campaign this month found him ahead of Woodward by 2.8 percentage points with likely voters — 40.9% to 38.1% — with 21% still undecided in the two-candidate contest.
The poll, conducted March 16-19 by Beacon Insights, also found Woodward is generally unpopular; just 20% of respondents knew who she is, and only 11.6% gave her a favorable rating.
Woodward, who now serves as Vice Mayor, won her seat by 3.6 percentage points in 2022, outperforming Gov. Ron DeSantis in the county, which he took by about 3 points in a statewide race he won by nearly 20.
Calabrese’s camp is betting that shifts in voting habits in recent local races will help him win in November, despite his marked funding disadvantage.
Earlier this month, Andy Thomson became the first Democrat in at least 45 years to win election as Mayor of Boca Raton, the major voter base for District 4. And in an upset victory this week, first-time Democratic candidate Emily Gregory defeated a better-funded Republican opponent in nearby House District 87 who carried an endorsement from President Donald Trump, flipping the seat for the first time this century.
“This isn’t happening in a vacuum — voters across Florida are sending a clear message,” said Calabrese, a Navy combat veteran and aviation safety expert.
“From flipping deep-red legislative seats to winning in Republican-leaning cities, Democrats are building real momentum. This poll shows Palm Beach County is part of that same trend, and I’m ready to flip this district.”
A Boca Raton native and graduate of the city’s eponymous high school, Calabrese, 35, flew global missions tracking down terrorists and locating downed airliners before serving as a Navy legal officer, department head and aerospace engineer, his campaign said.
He holds a Ph.D. in psychology and a master’s degree in aeronautics. After leaving active duty, he joined the Federal Aviation Administration as an Aviation Safety Inspector, leading more than 100 accident and incident investigations.
Today, he works as a United Airlines captain and Director of Operations at Altivion Aviation.
Calabrese told Florida Politics in May, when he launched his County Commission campaign, that he will advocate for public safety, strong infrastructure, responsible growth and smart government spending if elected.
He briefly ran for Congress in 2022.
District 4 spans a coastal, southeastern portion of Palm Beach County that includes all or part of Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Golf and Lantana.
Woodward, a Republican, flipped the district seat red in November 2022, when she upset the then-Democratic incumbent, Robert Weinroth, with 52% of the vote.
Weinroth subsequently switched parties to Republican and last ran for the Boca Raton City Council, losing a race this month to replace Thomson on the dais.
Beacon Insights surveyed 427 likely voters in District 4 and weighted the results to reflect the expected 2026 electorate. The poll had a 5-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Through Dec. 31, Calabrese raised about $72,500 through his campaign account and political committee. Woodward, meanwhile, raised more than $340,000, county and state records show.
The General Election is Nov. 3.
