Makers of goods from sportswear to luxury cars and chemicals painted a gloomy picture on Wednesday of consumer and industrial health, adding to concerns about the damage from U.S. President Donald Trump‘s trade wars and hitting share prices again.
Reuters
Increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminium imports took effect on Wednesday, as Trump steps up his campaign to reorder global trade in favour of the United States. Europe swiftly retaliated.
Trump’s plans for tariffs – and their back-and-forth implementation since he took office in January – have upended industries from cars to energy and unnerved businesses and investors. Worries that rising costs will reignite inflation, and that souring consumer sentiment could herald a U.S. recession, have caused stock markets to plunge.
“Nearly everyone in the economy is struggling to comprehend wild swings in Washington policies, and their implications for everyday decisions,” said Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at asset manager Franklin Templeton.
The constant flip-flopping over tariffs is paralysing industries from healthcare and retailing to agriculture, mining, energy, he said. Automakers, for example, are unable to plan while there is a threat of 25% tariffs on components made in Canada or Mexico.
“No reasonable auto executive can make such investments if the expected returns can be wiped out at the stroke of a pen,” Dover said.
Germany’s Porsche said on Wednesday it was assessing how it could pass on to consumers the cost of possible tariffs – expected to be 25% for U.S. imports from Europe – without pressuring its margins. That implies prices could be hiked to offset any drop in unit sales.
Even without higher tariffs, lower sales, high costs and trade concerns would hurt 2025 earnings, the luxury carmaker warned. Its shares were down 4.5%.
“For now, we are hoping there are solutions that will lead to a sensible tariff regime between regions,” Porsche CFO Jochen Breckner said on a press call after its annual results.
Two major South Korean steelmakers said they were considering options including possible investment in operations in the United States as the metals tariffs came into force. ‘ J.P. Morgan‘s chief economist Bruce Kasman said he saw a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year, which would rise to 50% if Trump follows through on threats to impose reciprocal tariffs from April. He also warned of lasting damage to the United States as an investment destination if the administration undermines trust in governance.
Asked about a recession resulting from his trade policies, Trump said on Tuesday: “I don’t see it at all.” On Monday, he had declined to rule one out.
European shares were largely resilient on Wednesday as investors cheered news that Ukraine had accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia.
But earnings from Puma and Zara-owner Inditex underscored concerns that uncertainties over trade are starting to hurt Main Street, curbing Americans’ spending on everything from detergent and clothing to travel.
Shares in Puma lost almost a quarter of their value and hit a nine-year low after the German sportswear company forecast slower sales growth this year due to soft demand in the United States and China. It highlighted trade disputes and currency volatility as challenges.
Spain’s Inditex reported a slower start to its first-quarter starting February 1, raising questions about weakening consumer demand, particularly in the United States, its second-biggest market. Its shares fell more than 8%, to their lowest since August.
CEO Oscar Garcia Maceiras said he was “optimistic” about the U.S. market despite the tit-for-tat trade measures, and that Inditex company was well positioned to adapt as needed. But echoing other executives, he said constantly changing geopolitical news was making long-term predictions difficult.
More than 900 of the 1,500 largest U.S. companies have mentioned tariffs on earnings calls or at investor events since the beginning of the year, according to LSEG data.
The tariffs are already driving prices for aluminium users in the United States to record highs. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in February, although tariffs on imports are expected to raise the costs of most goods in the months ahead.
German chemicals distributor Brenntag warned that 2025 will be another challenging year, shaped by economic and political uncertainty and subdued economic growth globally.
CEO Christian Kohlpaintner said the company was relatively insulated from import duties because it sources ingredients and sells its products locally.
But what he called the “confusing, inscrutable” situation makes it hard to run a business. Germany’s chemicals association VCI said on Wednesday it did not expect any recovery this year.
“The big risk is that companies stop spending and equally the consumer also stalls purchases,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at investment firm St. James’s Place.
