Cook Political Report shifts ratings, says Cory Mills looks more vulnerable

A top political prognosticator just offered a fresh assessment on Democrats’ chances of unseating U.S. Rep. Cory Mills.

Cook Political Report has moved Florida’s 7th Congressional District from its “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” column.

The shift came as the high-profile election predictions site moved 18 House races nationwide in a direction favorable to Democrats. That suggests a hostile climate for Republicans overall, two years after President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

But Mills’ particular situation has also been impacted by a series of scandals, something the Democratic Congressional Committee (DCCC) was quick to point out.

“Voters in Florida’s 7th Congressional District deserve a representative that is focused on them and their priorities, not someone distracted by the need to litigate personal scandals on multiple fronts,” said DCCC Spokesperson Madison Andrus. “This November, Floridians are going to elect a fighter that’s actually in their corner.”

Three Democrats remain in the running to challenge Mills: Jennifer Adams, Bale Dalton and Marialana Kinter. Noah Widmann, the top fundraiser through the third quarter of 2025, recently dropped out and endorsed Dalton.

Mills, meanwhile, has faced criticism even from Republican colleagues, especially women, who have encouraged him not to seek another term.

The New Smyrna beach Republican remains under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for a number of issues, including allegations about him profiting from Defense Department contracts while serving in Congress, assaulting a girlfriend in their shared Washington apartment, threatening to publicly distribute intimate photos of an ex-girlfriend who lived with him in New Smyrna Beach, and exaggerating his military service.

Mills in 2024 won re-election to a second term, receiving 56.5% of the vote over Adams. In the same election, 55.6% of voters supported Trump for President compared to 43.1% support for Democrat Kamala Harris, according to MCI Maps. More than 54.7% of voters in the district supported U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s re-election.

Notably, the lines for CD 7 could soon shift, with GOP leaders in Florida promising redistricting ahead of the Midterms.