Florida reformed and scaled back probation supervision more than three years ago. Now, polling shows broad support for Congress tackling probation updates nationwide.
New polling commissioned by the REFORM Alliance, a national group supporting changes to probation and parole, found nearly 79% of Americans support proposals to change supervision as proposed in a bipartisan bill championed by U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee.
The survey, conducted by Fabrizio Ward, showed strong majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents backing reform.
It’s a result that shocked even the group’s leadership, as most Americans supported changing the process without hearing any messaging.
“I have to say, I was absolutely shocked that we saw as high support right out the gate, without even linking this to any of the authors or any of the incredible influencers who have stepped up and said that they endorsed the bill,” said Jessica Jackson, CEO of the REFORM Alliance.
“We saw right away that 79% of the Trump voters, 80% of the (Kamala) Harris voters said they want to see this happen. They want to see this public safety reform signed into law.”
The pollsters, who also have worked with President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, stressed the conservative support from swing House districts Trump carried in 2024 by less than 5 percentage points, or that went to Trump despite electing Democrats to Congress.
“Reform of the supervised release system has a clear political benefit for Republicans in their fight to keep control of Congress,” pollsters Anthony Fabrizio and Bob Ward wrote in a memo. “Both the Trump base and the Swing voters who will determine the outcomes in the most competitive House districts see the benefits of making it easier for the recently incarcerated to get back into the workforce, paying taxes and contributing to society.”
That speaks to messaging likely to be embraced by Lee, a swing district Republican.
But the poll also shows voters across the political spectrum back changes. Her bill would grant more judicial discretion in requirements for supervision during probation, allow for an early end to probation for good conduct and allow treatment instead of probation for low-level drug possession.
Jackson said that’s to be expected when looking at data on the number of people detrimentally impacted by the probation system as it exists today.
“Seven out of 10 of the Democrats, or Harris voters, said that they had a loved one. You had eight out of 10 of the Trump supporters who said they had a loved one or themselves had been impacted,” Jackson noted. “I think it’s because it’s become such a widespread issue that people know someone personally, and of course, nothing puts this more on your radar than actually knowing somebody who’s been impacted.”
Various elements of the bill polled at different support levels, but all were popular.
Asked about investing in programs that increase the chances that those on parole will succeed in reentry into society, such as housing assistance, education and job training, addiction treatment, and mental health support, 81% of Trump voters and 84% of swing voters support the bill.
By comparison, giving Judges discretion on minor drug possession violations to consider treatment or rehabilitation instead of mandatory reimprisonment had support from 68% of Trump voters and 72% from swing voters, lower levels of support but strong majorities with even the least popular part of the bill.
“A member of Congress supporting the Safer Supervision Act would gain at the polls, and most voters want President Trump to issue an executive order to accomplish the policies of the Safer Supervision Act,” the polling memo states.
Jackson’s group is prepared to tell personal stories even to those who don’t already know someone impacted by probation restraints. Her group also worked on the First Step Act signed in Trump’s first term, and she recounts how one of the first recipients, after Trump commuted her sentence on a crack cocaine conviction, still struggled to reintegrate in 2018. It wasn’t because she fell into old habits, but because of impossible constraints imposed by the justice system.
That included requirements for visits with a parole officer located 45 minutes away, required random drug tests, an expectation she retain her job at Walmart, all while living in her daughter’s house without her own care and after returning to society after a decade in prison with no ability to build up savings.
“There’s just so much stupid that is holding people back, so much red tape that isn’t actually helping them succeed,” Jackson said.
It’s why even voters who support taking a hard line on crime see benefits in making a return to society easier and more efficient.
“People see this as a tough on crime bill,” Jackson said.
“This is a bill that would return federal supervision to its original intent, which is officers who have people on their docket who they think might be at high risk of committing another crime need the resources to be able to properly supervise them. The way that things are structured right now, you’ve got officers managing 100-plus cases. That means they can’t properly supervise anyone — not those who need their help, not those who pose risks.”