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Christian Ulvert memo says April 1 elex results show Florida Dems can compete

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Democratic consultant Christian Ulvert is channeling one of former President Joe Biden’s favorite sayings, arguing that election results from April Fools’ Day portend good fortune for Democrats in the upcoming cycle.

In a memo arguing signs of a Democratic renaissance are “not a joke,” Ulvert made the case by pointing to success nationwide in Chicago and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic over-performance in two congressional Special Elections in Florida.

He spotlighted in particular Democrat Gay Valimont winning Escambia County in the Florida’s 1st Congressional District, even as she lost the overall contest, which former state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis won by nearly 15 points.

“President Trump carried Escambia County by nearly 20 points in 2024, and no candidate for federal office has won Escambia County in 20 years,” Ulvert’s memo noted. “In fact, Senator Bill Nelson, a moderate, pragmatic Democrat won the county in 2006, which only reaffirms the significant shift and backlash voters are voicing.”

Ulvert says the fact that Democrats were able to gain ground means they are winning key swing voters to their side amid discontent with President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump endorsed Patronis.

“This only happens in Republican strongholds when NPA voters overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat and reasonable Republicans join in that vote to send a message,” Ulvert’s memo continued.

“In Miami-Dade, we experienced similar trends when Annette Taddeo won a state Senate seat in 2017 by a 4-point margin, less than a year after the Republican state Senator won in 2016 by 12 points, reflecting a 16-point swing in the seat’s performance.”

Democrats have been publicly hashing out what message and what type of candidate to lean on going forward. Amid that debate, Ulvert says Democrats should run “young, pragmatic candidates who are not afraid to speak up and speak out.”

“Democrats need to have a clear message,” his memo added. “Voters want to see Democrats lead with a bold economic agenda that puts families first, protects every aspect of the American Dream and advances a foreign policy agenda that truly puts America First by leading with mutual respect, as has been done since our nation was founded nearly 250 years ago.”

And even though Republicans in the past two cycles have dominated Florida elections more so than at any time in recent history, Ulvert says Democrats can put in play Florida’s 27th Congressional District, currently held by Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar.

“Given the numbers we’ve seen over the last two months, and most recently on April 1, Democrats are over-performing by an average of 18 points across jurisdictions, putting districts like CD 27 squarely on the map,” Ulvert’s memo concluded.

“Now, it’s up to the national and state parties, along with the party committees to invest swiftly to create the environment Democrats need to win next November.”

In CD 27 in particular, Salazar won by nearly 21 points and nearly 15 points in 2024 and 2022, respectively. But in last month’s Special Elections, Democrats chipped away at Trump’s November margins in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts by 15-plus points.

That gives Ulvert optimism that with 18 more months of fodder from Trump’s second administration, voters will be open to moving toward Democrats.

“Across the country, voters from all political parties sent a resounding message: enough with extremism — it’s time for leadership that reflects real-life priorities and real-world solutions,” Ulvert said.

“Let’s not wait until the 11th hour only to fumble the ball,” he added. “We can win with the right candidate, and MOM by our side: Money, Organization and Message!”


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Jimmy Patronis gets named to key transportation committee in Congress upon arriving in D.C.

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Newly-elected member of Congress Jimmy Patronis is wasting little time getting into the mix of the House of Representatives in Washington, D.C.

The former Florida Chief Executive Officer won the special election April 1 for Florida’s 1st Congressional District in the Panhandle on April 1. He was appointed by House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, to a Congressional committee. In his first full week in Congress, Patronis was assigned to the U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. He’ll also serve on several other supplemental panels including the Subcommittee on Aviation, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation, and the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment.

“With over 1,000 people moving to Florida every day, our roadways, waterways, and infrastructure are essential to our nation’s economy and national security. During major storms, Florida roadways become critical tools for hurricane evacuation during states of emergency,” said Patronis, a Panama City Beach Republican. “Also, maintaining our roads, bridges, ports, and waterways are vital to ensuring a steady flow of commerce.”

Patronis added he’ll be vigilant in Congress and is committed to fair distribution of funds throughout Florida and all states.

“I am also laser focused on ensuring dollars intended for infrastructure go to the right place, and work to eliminate any red tape that slows project delivery times. I look forward to working alongside my fellow colleagues on this committee to ensure our nation’s infrastructure is second to none in the new golden age of America,” Patronis said.

Rep. Sam Graves, a Missouri Republican, is chair of the committee Patronis was assigned to and offered a welcome to the new lawmaker.

“I’m excited for Congressman Patronis to roll up his sleeves and help the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee with our full agenda this Congress. We will be working with the Trump Administration to ensure the safety of our aviation system, funding improvements to our ports and waterways infrastructure, and providing the U.S. Coast Guard with the resources they need to carry out their many critical missions, including stopping the flow of illegal drugs and migrants into the country across our maritime borders,” Graves said.


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Donald Trump sits cageside at Miami UFC event in his latest appearance at a sports event

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President Donald Trump said the standing ovation and cheers he drew when he took his seat at a UFC event in his home state of Florida were signs “we’re doing a good job.”

Trump shook hands with some supporters as he walked to his cageside seat Saturday night at Miami’s Kaseya Center while others waved his trademark red campaign cap. The Republican president, who stayed for several hours before flying back to his home in Palm Beach, said it was a “great honor” to receive that recognition from the crowd.

“It says we’re doing a good job. If we weren’t doing a good job, we’d get the opposite,” he told reporters accompanying him aboard Air Force One.

In the nearly three months since he has been back in office, Trump has launched a broad effort led by billionaire Elon Musk to shrink government by firing thousands of workers and cutting spending, tried unsuccessfully thus far to end Russia’s war against Ukraine and impose tariffs against many countries, including close allies of the United States.

Democrats, and even some Trump supporters, have criticized his early actions.

But at UFC, it was a night focused on the fighters in the cage.

“Every one of them came up at the end, and they were great,” Trump said. “I mean, they’re all warriors, modern day warriors.”

At one point, fighter Dominick Reyes walked over to the side of the Octagon after winning his bout and acknowledged Trump. Reyes went to take a photo with the president after the post-fight interview.

Trump’s granddaughter, Kai Trump, who attended UFC 314 with him, said it was “awesome.”

The president watched as Australian Alexander Volkanovski won his 10th championship fight in a row, defeating Diego Lopes of Brazil early Sunday morning by unanimous decision in the featherweight contest.

Trump is a longtime UFC fan and sports enthusiast who has frequently attended major fights and has had a longtime friendship with Dana White, the UFC president and CEO.

It was Trump’s first UFC visit since returning to the White House in January and came weeks after he attended the Saudi-sponsored LIV golf tournament at his golf club in Miami.

Trump attended the Super Bowl and Daytona 500, both in February. He was cageside at a UFC championship fight in New York in November, shortly after winning the election. Trump’s close affiliation with UFC had helped boost his campaign among young male voters.

As Trump entered the Miami arena accompanied by White, the president shared an embrace with podcast host Joe Rogan. Musk and Rogan sat by Trump’s side.

Also at the event were several members of his administration, including Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., FBI Director Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

___

Republished with permission of the Associated Press.


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Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 4.6.25

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We’ve got a three-way standoff when it comes to cost-saving proposals for Floridians, and with less than three weeks to go until Session ends, it’s still not clear what package will emerge.

First, Gov. Ron DeSantis proposed eliminating property taxes. Logistical hurdles aside (there is no state property tax, only local governments establish them, and it’s unclear how to make up all of the revenue lost here), there are some flaws to this path.

Yes, it would bring significant relief to Florida property owners who have been hit hard in recent years by surging insurance costs. And for those who bought high as prices propelled through the roof, it would give some reassurance as the market has begun to cool.

But not everyone owns property. So if we’re trying to provide relief for increasing costs — from housing, to inflation, to grocery prices — what relief does this bring to renters?

The argument from the Governor and other proponents is that landlords would get the benefit of a lower property tax, and they would pass those savings to consumers.

Yes, landlords, that notoriously generous lot.

See, markets aren’t set strictly by the basic needs of producers and owners to make a profit. No, the market is largely set by the price someone is willing to pay. And rent has already skyrocketed. Consider us skeptical that some drop to pre-COVID prices would ensue under this plan.

The most likely benefit is, with expenses for owners dropping, that would slow or halt outright the increase in rent. That’s something, but it wouldn’t necessarily provide immediate relief.

Enter House Speaker Daniel Perez, who favors shaving 3/4 of a percentage point off of Florida’s 6% sales tax, dropping it to 5.25%.

Everyone can benefit here, and this is more direct relief to lower income Floridians, whose budgets are consumed by a larger share of need-to-but items than those of the state’s richest residents.

Ah, but another snag. This would also benefit out-of-staters and foreign tourists visiting the state. It’s fun bilking them to beef up the state’s coffers! So again, some good, some bad.

Senate President Ben Albritton believes he has found a middle ground, eliminating sales tax entirely, but only for clothing and footwear under $75.

Again, that’s targeted to Floridians who need financial help. And it’s also focused on items that residents are far more likely to buy than tourists. Sure, you still have tourists coming in to pockets of the state to shop for these goods. But no plan is perfect.

Albritton is also offering up a property tax ballot initiative, where Floridians in 2026 might be offered the chance to weigh in on the issue as well.

Do any of these plans go through as is? Is some sort of hybrid deal in the works? All the more reason to keep an eye on Florida Politics during Session’s closing stretch. We’ll keep you posted.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Cory Mills’ consultants. When the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released its list of Republican-held seats in Florida the group would target in 2026, some familiar names made the list.

Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and María Elvira Salazar were both there. That’s not surprising, as they’ve been targeted by Democrats in the past. Both were on last cycle’s list and were likely already prepping for another expensive election cycle up ahead.

But the third name on that list raised some eyebrows: Mills, who has won his last two General Election contests by a combined 30 percentage points.

That’s not to say Mills doesn’t have some serious issues, as we’ve spotlighted. And with Democrats putting in double-digit overperformances in two Special Elections earlier this month, maybe there’s a Hail Mary path here.

Plus, Mills has promised to run for Senate, so if this seat is open, that only helps Democrats’ chances.

But if Mills just decides to stay put in the House, make no mistake: He’s the favorite here, even with Democratic attention and money being poured into this contest.

All that means is that Mills’ consultants just earned themselves a nice payday now that they’ll be in a contested race. Get your invoices ready.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Pensacola legislative delegation. This week saw two Republican House members from this region at the center of attention.

Republican Rep. Alex Andrade may be taking on the mantle of the top House Republican critic of the Governor.

Earlier this month, Andrade was hitting the DeSantis administration over word that the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) misallocated $160 million the Legislature had sent the agency to settle a Medicaid funding discrepancy with the federal government. That got attention as AHCA asked the Legislature this year for $160 million more to cover the expense.

This week, Andrade took the lead on criticizing a $10 million donation to Hope Florida, First Lady Casey DeSantis’ main project during her husband’s tenure. We’ll have more on that in a bit, but Andrade grilled new AHCA Secretary Shevaun Harris on the allocation and has argued that it could be illegal.

That’s tough talk for an administration led by a fellow Republican.

As for Salzman, she took aim at one of our favorite targets, perennially failing congressional candidate Anthony Sabatini.

After getting run out of the Legislature, Sabatini has played the role of internet edgelord begging for Donald Trump’s attention as he ran for Congress in two different districts (and teased a run in a third). But Trump has consistently backed Sabatini opponents (including Mills), meaning Sabatini has now tried to throw his lot in with DeSantis amid an intrastate schism among the GOP.

That hasn’t played well with legislative Republicans who already loathe Sabatini and are exercising more independence from the Governor.

Sabatini took aim at Salzman as she pushed for more transparency regarding the Governor’s university Board appointments.

Sabatini pulled out the only trick he has: using insults that 12-year-olds would consider savage while playing Xbox online. He called Salzman “braindead,” a “lying schmuck,” “servile stooge” … you get the picture.

Salzman fought back on social media, arguing her critics were deliberately gaslighting about the bill’s contents. But she added an extra shot at Sabatini, writing on social media, “Come say that to my face you coward, I’ll bring the step stool,” taking a shot at Sabatini’s unfortunately diminutive stature.

She followed that up with a trolling effort straight from the House floor, posting a picture of her holding a stool and tagging Sabatini.

We’re sure Sabatini will try really hard to cook up some more cringe-inducing insults. But with voters repeatedly rejecting him, is anyone even listening?

The biggest winner: Gator Nation. Congratulations to the national champions.

The University of Florida won its third national championship in men’s college basketball. That gives UF three titles each in men’s basketball and football, joining an exclusive club with esteemed collegiate powerhouses … well, nobody. UF is the only school in the country to accomplish that feat.

This season will be marked by UF, time and again, coming through in big games. You could argue Duke had more talent or other teams had more consistency. But with juggernauts Alabama and Auburn in the same conference, UF showed up and won the SEC tournament, then followed through with six straight wins in the NCAA Tournament.

Walter Clayton Jr. has cemented his status as a Gator legend, and alumni everywhere got to go along for yet another championship ride.

Even Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Gator himself, was doing the Gator chomp during a Cabinet meeting this week. Hard to top that in terms of putting your brand on the map.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Gary Farmer. We covered Farmer’s absurdly unprofessional comments from the bench late last year, which landed him a reassignment from the Broward Circuit criminal division to its civil court. Now, he may be suspended from the bench entirely.

The Florida Supreme Court is now weighing a recommendation from the Florida Judicial Qualifications Commission Investigative Panel that Farmer be suspended after he didn’t even show up to a hearing about those remarks.

A reminder, Farmer joked from the bench about gay sex and told a defendant who had fathered children from multiple mothers not to get his new Public Defender pregnant. Per the newest review, Farmer also repeatedly misconstrued or misunderstood legal precedent or his authority as a Judge.

“(Many) of the so-called jokes were actually demeaning and potentially humiliating comments aimed at individual attorneys, court staff, litigants, and others over whom Judge Farmer held significant authority,” JQC General Counsel Alex John Williams said.

“Moreover, many of his comments … could be viewed as discriminatory, or evincing a bias for or against parties, or controversies already in front … or likely to come before him.”

As we said in September, this Judge position was a solid place for Farmer to land after his unceremonious exit from the Legislature. But apparently he can’t keep his mouth shut enough to stay out of trouble even there.

Now, the Florida Supreme Court will have a final say about his future. Per POLITICO’s Gary Fineout, Farmer has until April 21 to tell the court why he shouldn’t be suspended.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Scott Yenor. Yenor, rightfully, is out as Chair of the University of West Florida’s (UWF) Board of Trustees.

But for the Governor’s stubborn refusal to ever admit he’s wrong, Yenor should have been gone much earlier. He never should have been there in the first place.

Yenor has a record of making clearly misogynistic comments that DeSantis tried to downplay. After those remarks were reported, new stories came out about Yenor’s anti-Jewish comments, which garnered Yenor another round of pushback.

Yet DeSantis sat on his hands, possibly hoping the storm would blow over. Only when it came time to put Yenor’s name up for confirmation in the Senate did Yenor finally see the writing on the wall and step aside.

Team DeSantis should have found these disqualifying remarks while vetting Yenor. That they didn’t is a failure. If they did find them, and didn’t care, then it’s a failure of judgment.

Yes, we understand with Republicans running roughshod electorally over Florida, that they’ve begun to push the state’s education institutions rightward. But can that be accomplished without nominating people who hold such outright inflammatory views such as Yenor’s?

This nomination was so bad, it’s even causing headaches for other Board nominees still before the Senate. If that’s not a crystal clear sign Yenor should have never come near this position, we don’t know what is.

The biggest loser: Casey DeSantis, Hope Florida. We don’t have a habit of placing the First Lady on our loser’s list. She’s not an elected, and no one would fault her for sticking by her firebrand husband. And until the drip, drip, drip of controversy surrounding Hope Florida started coming out, we mostly felt that Casey DeSantis had done good, uncontroversial work in the role.

But as our publisher, Peter Schorsch, said this week, it’s looking increasingly likely that the First Lady’s 2026 campaign is dead before it began.

Byron Donalds’ dominance early on in this contest is reason enough to wonder if DeSantis has the juice to secure the Republican nomination. Now, her opponents might have a cudgel with which to lower her standing further.

As we said above, even Republicans are questioning whether that $10 million contribution to Hope Florida from Centene as part of a Medicaid settlement was even legal. The Governor, of course, is defending it as a media hit job. But that framing falls flat when members of your own party are sounding alarms.

And that’s especially true given the latest in the saga to break Friday: that a pot of money moved from Hope Florida to organizations that then turned around and put up big funding to the Governor’s anti-recreational pot push last cycle.

Nothing to see here!

As we said earlier this week, what had been known was just “the tip of the iceberg” and part of a “ticking time bomb.”

Tick, tick, tick.


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