Charlie Crist leads Ken Welch, everyone else in poll of St. Pete mayoral race

A new poll shows former Gov. Charlie Crist holding an early edge in a crowded St. Pete mayoral field that includes incumbent Ken Welch.

Crist leads Welch in a hypothetical head-to-head General Election matchup and in a Primary field, with Welch securely in the No. 2 spot. 

The survey found 23% of residents polled would vote for Crist if the election were held today, followed by 19% supporting Welch.

No other candidate even hit double-digit support in the poll. City Council member Brandi Gabbard leads all other candidates, at 6%. Maria Scruggs polls at 5%, with former St. Petersburg Fire Chief Jim Large at 4%. Former Shore Acres Neighborhood Association President Kevin Batdorf barely registers, at 2%.

While Crist leads the field, nearly 42% of voters remain undecided.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Crist and Welch, 36% of respondents say they favor Crist, compared to 31% who prefer Welch. Undecided voters remain prevalent under that scenario, at 33%. Welch performs significantly better against Gabbard, at 32% to 24%. In a matchup between Welch and Gabbard, 44% remain undecided.

Welch’s lagging polling may be related to his wavering approval ratings. While the incumbent Mayor remains above water, his approval is still low, at less than 39%, compared to nearly 32% who disapprove of Welch’s job performance.

A full 30% of respondents weren’t sure how they felt, signaling an opportunity for both Welch to reach voters who haven’t yet formed an opinion and for Crist to reach those unsure voters and woo them to his corner.

Looking at polling demographics, more trouble could be on the horizon for Welch.

In a hypothetical General Election against Crist, Welch unsurprisingly dominates among Black voters at 55% to 16%. But it’s worth noting that nearly 29% of Black voters surveyed are still unsure in that scenario, indicating room for Crist to improve his position among this critical voting block.

Similarly, Crist performs well among Democrats, Republicans and independents. While Welch performs slightly better than Crist among Democrats (38.5% to 34%), Welch significantly trails among Republicans (24% to 39%) and independents (24.5% to 40%). And in all three political party breakdowns, there are significant shares of voters still to reach, including 28% of Democrats, nearly 37% of Republicans and 36% of independents.

Those demographic breakdowns are important because Crist has so far dominated fundraising, giving him a major advantage in reaching voters and sharing campaign messaging.

Crist has not yet formally filed to run, but is expected to do so next month.

St. Pete Shines, the political committee supporting a Crist campaign, which commissioned the poll, has already raised more than $1 million and continues to host fundraisers, signaling widespread interest in a possible bid. Welch identified Crist as his main competitor during his campaign launch event last month, noting a significant funding gap.

“This poll reinforces what we’re hearing from the residents of St. Petersburg and in response to our efforts to raise money,” St. Pete Shines Chair Michelle Todd Schorsch said. “And that is that they are eager for change and excited by the prospect of the right leader stepping forward.”

Meanwhile, Gabbard has already begun making her case to voters, framing the race as a “critical crossroads” for the city and pitching herself as a more forward-looking alternative to Welch’s leadership. Batdorf has entered the race, positioning himself as an outsider candidate and sharply criticizing City Hall leadership, calling for a new direction.

Welch has leaned into endorsements and his record in office, highlighting support from local leaders and organizations while emphasizing his work on storm recovery, housing and the long-running efforts to redevelop the Historic Gas Plant District.

The poll, conducted March 25-26 by St. Pete Polls, surveyed 538 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The St. Petersburg municipal election is scheduled for August, with a November runoff likely if no candidate secures a majority. Deep pockets and elbow grease could play a big role as candidates work to secure support from undecided voters.

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Ed. Note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee expected to back Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.