The CBI has released its assessment of retail sales during February and while doesn’t provide a lot of detail about what happened across the wider industry, it’s a very useful early clue to what went on before the more detailed reports come out.
So what did go on? The CBI’s Distributive Trade Survey said “poor sentiment among retailers lingers as sales continue to fall”.
Year-on-year retail sales volumes declined in February for the fifth consecutive month, and retailers expect sales to fall at a somewhat faster pace in March.
They also remain downbeat about their future business situation, and this sentiment was reflected in their expectations to cut back on headcount and capital expenditure going forward. In particular, investment intentions worsened to the greatest extent since May 2019.
First some caveats. The survey doesn’t use actual sales figures. Instead, it’s data is all about the weighted balance of those saying retail sales fell or rose to some degree or another.
So, for February, the weighted balance of those saying retail sales fell was broadly similar to last month (a weighted balance of -23% from -24% in January). And the balance tips towards more expecting that sales will fall in March (-30%).
February sales were judged to be “poor”, to a greater extent than last month (-34% from -24% in January). Retailers expect that March sales will also disappoint compared to seasonal norms, but to a modestly lesser degree (-27%).
Sentiment among retailers remained poor in February, with firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter (-19% from -21% in November).
As mentioned, retailers also expect to reduce investment in the next 12 months (compared to the past 12 months) to the greatest extent since May 2019 (-56% from -27% in November).
Headcount in retail also declined at a moderate pace in the year to February (-13% from -18% in November). Employment is expected to fall at a broadly similar rate in March (-15%).
Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI, said: “February marked another month of falling annual sales in the retail sector. Looking ahead, retailers expect a sharper sales downturn in March, partly due to the later timing of Easter compared to last year.
“Persistently weak demand conditions and the impact of the Autumn Budget have dampened retailers’ sentiment, contributing to the steepest deterioration in investment intentions in nearly six years. These worrying data make it clear that the government’s plan to kickstart growth is now more important than ever.
“Businesses need a boost in confidence after a tough period that has seen their overheads increase and headroom for investment squeezed. Reforming business rates and the Apprenticeship Levy would go a long way to support firms as they work alongside government to create the jobs, investment, and growth that we all want.”
