In politics, bodies don’t need to be cold for people to start swooning at the opportunity.
Such is the case with the South Florida Congressional seat held by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, which appears increasingly imperiled after a federal grand jury indicted her this week on charges that she stole $5 million in disaster relief funds to finance her 2021 congressional campaign.
Cherfilus-McCormick and her brother, Edwin Cherfilus, are accused of securing funding intended for COVID-19 vaccination distribution and routing overpayments from the program through several accounts, which later donated the funds as campaign contributions. If found guilty on all counts, Cherfilus-McCormick faces up to 53 years in prison, according to the Justice Department, which already appears hell bent on securing a conviction. Attorney General Pam Bondi called the alleged crime “particularly selfish” and vowed to “follow the facts in this case and deliver justice.”
To be clear, Cherfilus-McCormick has not resigned her seat in Florida’s 20th Congressional District, and she maintains her innocence regarding all allegations against her. But calls are already mounting for her to resign, and there’s a better chance than not, given political winds in Washington D.C., that her seat will be vacant before the presents under the Christmas tree are unwrapped.
U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, has already filed a privileged resolution calling for her expulsion from Congress, a huge step up from his previous statement calling for her censure. And problems are even mounting within her own Democratic Party, with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announcing Thursday that Cherfilus-McCormick would step down as ranking member of the House Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee. He didn’t mention any plans to resign.
Still, the expectation that Cherfilus-McCormick’s legal troubles will spell political demise means it’s not too early to speculate about who might be a contender to replace her.
In all likelihood, it will be a Democrat. Nearly 55% of the district’s electorate are Democrats, while fewer than 16% are Republicans, according to the most recent L2 voter data. Even considering nonpartisan voters, the district is, for now, a lock for Dems. There is one caveat: the district could shift depending on what happens with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ preferred mid-decade redistricting.
But for now, it’s one of the most left-leaning districts in the state.
There are several names to contemplate. There’s Palm Beach County Commissioner Bobby Powell, who was elected to his current post about a year ago. He resigned his seat in the state Senate last year to run for the seat he now holds. He was a strong fundraiser, with $173,000 banked for his Commission bid.
There’s also Palm Beach County School Board member Edwin Ferguson, an attorney and former educator. But even in a deep blue district, Ferguson could face challenges in a competitive Primary, one that would almost certainly determine the next Representative and that could open if no Republican runs. He came under fire earlier this year after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, referring to the conservative firebrand as a “racist bigot.”
Melissa McKinley is another potential name to watch. She’s a former Palm Beach County Commissioner who left office in late 2022 after serving two terms. She landed a job as Vice President for Government Relations at the West Palm Beach-based engineering firm WGI, where she remains today. McKinley would have the chops and the election experience to mount a serious bid. Whether she’d want to is perhaps the bigger question.
And then there is West Palm Beach Mayor Keith James, who may perhaps be the most likely to run a successful congressional bid.
He’s serving his final term in office, and sources tell Florida Politics that people are already proactively asking him to run to replace Cherfilus-McCormick.
One big plus — aside from the robust name recognition that comes with being twice elected to West Palm Beach — is James’ relationship with U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel. James has been her protégé for years, and, as he would be, she was a former Mayor before running for her South Florida congressional seat.
His experience as Mayor of a major Florida city and his strong relationship with a sitting member of Congress mean James would likely be a prolific fundraiser, be able to mount an impressive ground game, and tap into grassroots support.
And James himself comes with his own resume. Before being elected Mayor — the city’s fourth Black Mayor but only the first to serve as a Strong Mayor — he served on the City Commission for eight years. He grew up in Wichita, facing challenges related to segregation and inequality, and overcame them to achieve what few can tout — acceptance and graduation from Harvard College and Harvard Law.
How the race shakes out — or even if there’s a race at all — is still an open-ended question, but for now, these are the names circulating through political circles.
With Thanksgiving already in the seven-day forecast, don’t get too comfy with your downtime, because anything could happen.
This is not, by any means, an exhaustive list. If you hear any rumblings, I’d love to hear about it. Feel free to email me at [email protected].