Byron Donalds, Paul Renner both hold edge — barely — over David Jolly in poll from James Madison Institute

New polling shows Byron Donalds as the front-runner for the Republican nomination for Governor — unless First Lady Casey DeSantis enters the race.

But whether Donalds or Paul Renner — the only other major Republican currently in the race — wins, the GOP may face a tighter race than many expect against Democrat David Jolly.

A survey conducted by the conservative James Madison Institute shows that Donalds, a Naples Congressman and the first major candidate running for Governor, holds a strong lead in a Primary against Renner, a former Florida House Speaker who jumped in the race this month.

Donalds wins 29% of the vote to Renner’s 9%, the poll showed. But a whopping 62% of voters remain undecided, signaling there may be room to overcome any current weakness in name recognition.

Pollsters also considered what the race may look like if other major Republicans throw their hats in the ring. When given a list of options that includes the First Lady, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, pollsters find DeSantis with a lead of 26%, while Donalds takes just 23%. With that crowded field in play, Renner would win 7% while Collins and Simpson each receive 2% support.

Either Donalds or Renner would have an edge on Jolly, a former Republican Congressman-turned-MSNBC commentator and the only major candidate currently seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor.

The poll shows 36% of registered voters would support Donalds over Jolly, who would win 32%, while independent Jason Pizzo would receive 4%. Renner, the poll shows, would take 34% of the vote to Jolly’s 33% and Pizzo’s 5%.

Pollsters report a 2.77-percentage-point margin of error, which technically puts Jolly in a statistical tie with either Republican opponent.

Pollsters did not test faceoffs between rumored Republican candidates against Jolly.

The results indicate that Pizzo, a former Senate Democratic Leader before his high-profile exit from the party, could be a bigger spoiler in the race with Renner as the nominee, But Jolly also performs better against Renner, a lesser known state legislator, than he does against Donalds, a fixture on national cable news.

In any case, the undecided vote may be the most significant factor in the poll’s findings. Both hypothetical matchups show 28% of voters still undecided on the Governor’s race regardless of who wins the GOP nomination.

That suggests a more wide-open race than Florida’s voter registration trends suggest. Moreover, pollsters separately found a third of Florida voters consider themselves “politically homeless” and unrepresented by either the Democratic or Republican parties.

“With 24% of registered voters identifying as independents — 54% of whom are strictly non-partisan — these voters could tip any close races in the state,” a polling memo states.

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