U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds has the inside track in the GOP Primary for Governor even if First Lady Casey DeSantis runs, according to new polling from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab that inverts the results of a survey from the same outfit last year showing her ahead of him.
The race is inside the margin of error if Donalds, DeSantis and other names are presented without added information for voters, suggesting that the “anybody but Byron” campaign isn’t leading to widespread support for other candidates.
“When asked who they would vote for if the 2026 Republican primary election for governor were held today, 28% indicated a vote for Byron Donalds, followed by 24% for Casey DeSantis. In a distant third place comes James Fishback with 4%, followed by 3% for Jay Collins, less than 1% for Paul Renner, and 36% said they do not know who they’ll vote for,” reads the polling memo.
DeSantis narrowly leads Donalds with female voters, 26% to 25%. Yet Donalds leads by 10 points with male voters.
Current Lt. Gov. Collins and former House Speaker Renner have each aggressively courted backing from Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has not come close to offering an endorsement.
Fishback leads both, despite facing questions about his residency, his personal ethics, and political positions that have been tailored to younger “groyper” types who historically are not high-propensity voters. Yet with voters under the age of 35, Fishback commands 32% of the vote, suggesting that if the Washington, D.C., homesteader actually qualifies for the ballot, he could be the choice of a new generation.
Donalds’ lead over Casey DeSantis is most pronounced in South Florida, where 38% of likely voters back him, compared to 14% for her.
Assuming DeSantis does not run, 69% of those polled don’t know who they would support, wouldn’t vote, or would back someone else. But by and large, the anti-Donalds stalking horse candidates don’t draw much interest. Donalds gets 12% of those who would have backed the First Lady, with Fishback at 8% and Collins at 7%.
The survey polled 657 likely Republican voters between Feb. 16 and 19. The poll has a +/- 4.38-percentage-point margin of error.
