Byron Donalds at 50% in GOP Governor’s Primary as most voters support federal AI framework

U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in Florida’s Republican Primary for Governor, according to new polling that also finds most voters favor federal oversight of artificial intelligence over state-dictated strictures.

The survey, conducted by Virginia-based The Tarrance Group, found Donalds at 50% support among Republican Primary voters — far ahead of all other candidates, who remain in single digits.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Leading the Future, a federal super PAC that has invested heavily in Donalds’ campaign and broader messaging on artificial intelligence.

It found Donalds’ support has grown modestly since January, increasing by 4 percentage points.

Regionally, his gains were more pronounced, with a 14-point jump in the Tampa Bay media market and a 7-point increase in the Panhandle, where American Mission Florida — a state-level political committee funded entirely by Leading the Future — has concentrated advertising.

Among other candidates, hedge fund investor James Fishback placed second with 9% support, unchanged from January, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins followed at 6%, marking a significant drop from 12% in the previous poll.

Surfside Mayor Charles Burkett, former House Speaker Paul Renner and nonprofit leader Bobby Williams each registered less than 5% support.

Notably, while Burkett said last year that he would run for Governor, a campaign has yet to materialize.

More than a quarter of Republican Primary voters, 27%, remain undecided.

Tarrance Group pollsters also measured awareness of President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Donalds. A majority of Republican voters, 53%, are aware of the endorsement, up 9 points from January.

Awareness was higher in the Tampa Bay area at 57% and at 52% in Panhandle markets.

Beyond the Governor’s race, the survey explored voter attitudes on artificial intelligence policy.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 64%, believe regulation of the industry should be handled at the federal level by Congress, with more than 8 in 10 of them expressing certainty about the issue.

Thirty percent favored state-level oversight by Florida lawmakers, with slightly more than 3 in 4 feeling strongly about it.

Support for Trump’s recently released National AI Policy Framework was also strong, with 54% of all Florida voters and 75% of Republicans backing the proposal, which calls for federal safety standards while allowing continued innovation in the AI sector.

The Tarrance Group surveyed 600 likely Florida voters March 30 to April 2, with an oversample of 466 Republican Primary voters. The poll carried a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points overall and 4.7 points among Republicans.

A record 45 candidates are currently running for Governor. The prior record was 21 in the 2018 cycle, when Gov. Ron DeSantis won the job, according to the Tallahassee Democrat.

Polling in late February found that while Trump’s endorsement greatly strengthened Donalds’ candidacy, a yet-to-come nod from DeSantis could swing favor to another candidate.

The Primary is Aug. 18, followed by the General Election on Nov. 3.