Brian Nathan pivots from upset win to governing sprint as potential rematch with Josie Tomkow looms

Fresh off a razor-thin upset in Senate District 14, Sen. Brian Nathan is pivoting quickly from campaign mode to governing before turning his attention to a possible November rematch against Republican Josie Tomkow.

Nathan faces an immediate test and has only weeks to prepare for the upcoming Special Session called in mid-April to resolve budgeting priority differences between the House and the Senate, a congressional redistricting Special Session starting on April 20, and another potential Special Session on property tax reform.

Nathan told Florida Politics his early focus will be on understanding the state budget and ensuring that district priorities, including local programs and property tax concerns, are protected. He added that much of his preparation so far has involved reviewing budget documents and working with staff to quickly get up to speed on issues other lawmakers have been tracking for months.

He said that preparation has already begun in earnest, with his team working through materials as he tries to close the gap with lawmakers who have been engaged in negotiations throughout the Regular Session.

“I’m actually with my staff right now — we are prepping, because there’s a lot I have to pick up quickly,” he said.

“I understand that I’m the new kid on the block, the Senators that are now colleagues have been there the entire Session. They’ve seen the evolution of both the budget and this redistricting Special Session that we’re going to have along the way. I’m just willing to jump in and lend a hand wherever they need me.”

Nathan said he hopes to bring “blue-collar common sense” with him to Tallahassee, arguing that state policymaking often feels disconnected from everyday Floridians. His term will end before next year’s Legislative Session, limiting Nathan’s opportunity to push his own proposals unless he is re-elected to a full term in November. But he said he would work to represent working-class priorities through budgeting and redistricting talks.

“This is going to be a lot of hard work between now and however many Special Sessions we have, however long it goes,” he said.

“I know the Governor was talking about six weeks of Special Session the other day. So whatever my colleagues need from me to help get our budget priorities passed and deal with redistricting, I’m here for them and ready to get the work done. … Obviously the next Session is after the election, so I do have ideas about what I’d like to do, but I have another election to get through first.”

Nathan edged out Tomkow by just over 400 votes during the Special Election for SD 14, a margin of roughly half a percentage point that ultimately fell outside Florida’s automatic recount threshold. The win fills a vacancy left after former Sen. Jay Collins was appointed Lieutenant Governor.

The result surprised political observers in a district where Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage, and where Tomkow entered the race with stronger institutional support, a sizable fundraising edge, and early voting trends and Election Day turnout patterns that initially suggested a Republican advantage.

Nathan said the election night victor was both validating and tense, with early returns offering the first real confirmation his campaign’s message resonated with voters. 

“You could cut the tension with a knife — that’s literally what it felt like,” Nathan said. 

His campaign leaned heavily on affordability — a theme Democrats have seized on as a broader political platform at the Legislature and on the campaign trail. A union electrician and Navy veteran, Nathan leaned into his working-class background during his campaign.

Democrats have since pointed to Election Day results as evidence that affordability concerns are influencing voters, even in districts where Republicans maintain a registration edge. Nathan also credits his down-to-earth approach that resonated with voters.

“When you talk to people they will tell you what they want and what their concerns are, you just have to listen and be willing to respond,” Nathan said.

“That’s what we did. Additionally, I’m not polished and cut from the particular cloth that people think of when they think of politicians. I look and sound and have the same experience as the people in this district, and that’s what they wanted. Someone who understands them, because they are one of them.”

Tomkow has already pledged to push for a rematch this November, setting up a high-stakes test of whether Nathan’s win was a one-off Special Election upset or an early sign of shifting dynamics in Hillsborough County. When asked about the looming election, Nathan said “I will refer you back to the Special Election I just won.”

“I knew getting into this race that it was going to be a sprint and a marathon at the same time,” he said. “I’m going to do it again.”

Nathan said the importance of representing roughly half a million constituents is not lost on him, and he is prepared to grind through multiple Special Sessions and a second election campaign in less than a year to prove his victory was more than a moment.

“This was one of the hardest things I’ve ever done, and to learn that I succeeded was one of the profound pleasures of my life. To run this race, to connect with the people of this district and have them trust me, that’s an immense responsibility and I feel it every day.”