Blake Dowling: Eye of the WeatherTiger

Several years ago, I served as a judge for the Innovation Park of Tallahassee TechGrant Program, which began in 2005 to provide grants to local tech companies. Since its inception, the program has awarded over $600,000 to help grow tech businesses in our region.

This event marked my first introduction to WeatherTiger, a company launched in 2015. They describe themselves as follows: “WeatherTiger is a group of highly skilled, highly experienced professionals dedicated to advancing the science of forecasting and providing the highest standard of forensic meteorological analysis and expert witness insights for our clients.” Essentially, they use technology to deliver accurate storm forecasts for our area and beyond.

We are all aware of how sensationalist the media can be; clickbait, fake headlines, and exaggerated videos are prevalent, especially in weather reporting. It’s refreshing to have a consistent and reliable source for factual information.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut and his wife, Dr. Erica Staehling, are the team behind WeatherTiger, and they have established that reliable platform. Their list of accolades is extensive. For instance, Ryan is a recipient of the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Fellowship and the Max Mayfield Award in Weather Forecasting from the American Meteorological Society. Erica has received the American Meteorological Society Graduate Fellowship and the National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship to study Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Princeton University.

While their honors and education are impressive, it was their compassion that caught my attention this year.

I had just returned from a trip to the Virgin Islands when Hurricane Melissa approached Jamaica. Although our decision to visit the islands may not have been the best, we managed to avoid significant impacts, only getting grazed by Tropical Storm Jerry.

However, Hurricane Melissa was a formidable storm. As I read Ryan’s insights on the storm — he contributes to various media outlets — his closing statement resonated deeply: “Unfortunately, we are about to see yet another demonstration of nature at its worst, but hopefully we can follow that with a demonstration of humanity at its best.”

If you wish to support those affected by Melissa, consider donating to organizations like the World Central Kitchen or the Red Cross.

Ryan’s ability to infuse his weather columns with humanity and heart distinguishes him from other brilliant minds in the field. In a conversation with Truchelet, he explained their predictive models with remarkable clarity. He forecast accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) units for the upcoming storm season to be in the range of 140-135. As the season draws to a close, we are observing an ACE of 133, which aligns closely with his prediction.

For context, ACE measures the total wind energy of tropical cyclones within a storm season based on intensity and duration. A season with an ACE exceeding 200 is considered hyperactive. Recent data shows that 2017 holds the record with an ACE of 224, while 2024 is projected at 161.

While I primarily know WeatherTiger for their storm predictions relevant to our lives and businesses in Florida, their expertise extends into other fields, including agriculture. Their storm forecasting models can inform seasonal outlooks by incorporating precipitation and temperature data.

Ryan and Erica are recognized not only in Florida but also nationally, appearing as experts on various news platforms. Ryan’s columns can be found in the USA Today Network and the Tallahassee Democrat. He has been featured on the BBC, in The Washington Post, CNN, and ABC Australia, and has even appeared on Jeopardy.

Ryan remarked in a previous interview, “If I’m on CNN, it’s going to be a very bad day in North Florida.”

We need more accurate forecasting and empathetic coverage here in Florida. When I asked Ryan about his career, he shared, “In the 10 years that I’ve been running WeatherTiger, the thing that I am proudest of is to have earned the trust of people across Florida. It’s been a really rough decade of hurricane activity here, and I’ve tried to offer my readers a useful, usable lifeline through stressful and dangerous storms from Irma to Michael to Ian to Helene. While I’m proud to have provided a needed service under fire, here’s hoping the next 10 years of WeatherTiger sees a bit calmer weather in Florida.”

As this hurricane season approaches its conclusion, I take comfort knowing that Ryan and Erica will continue to watch over us with the eye of the weather tiger.