Well folks Father Time continues to be kind to a 41 year old (A. Rodgers) and 40 year old (J. Flacco) as they both start at QB for only the third time ever for two forty year old QB’s facing off. This happens due to the NFL severely lacking talent at the QB spot and so far neither Offense has been loading up the stats/yardage sheet as both Offenses are bottom 3 in the NFL. The Bengals Flacco will be making his 26th start vs. the Steelers.
BENGALS SLOW STARTING ON OFFENSE & CAN’T STOP ANYONE FROM SCORING!
You just can’t win coming from behind every single week and the Bengals Offense has now scored only (17) first quarter points and (31) first half points. The Bengals Defense though has allowed (35) first quarter points and (71) second quarter points. Getting outscored in the first half by 73 points and you have near zero shot at all to win games.
It’s even worse being outscored (79-9) in the first half of their current 4 game losing streak. New QB Flacco has not led his team to a game with over 18 points so far this season. The Bengals are one of 3 teams with No Touchdown in first or second quarter the past 4 games.
Last week Flacco, in his first game with his new team, struggled badly out the gate and the first 4 Series were simply atrocious. He did rebound with a pretty decent second half though (21-30-179-2 TD passes) as he started to get in tune with his top 2 stud wideouts Chase and Higgins. I am quite sure the Bengals are at least now somewhat optimistic Flacco can copy the second half this week.
STEELERS DEFENSE VERY STINGY SO FAR & HAVE LOOKED GREAT LAST 3 GAMES
The Steelers can’t rely on an aging QB to throw 30+ points on the scoreboard so they know the Defense must be stingy and this year they allow only (21) points per game but an even better (14.7) points per game the past 3 games. If this Defense keeps playing at that level they can keep from asking QB Rodgers to do things he can no longer really do on the football field as he is averaging a career low (204 PYPG) this year.
The Defensive Rankings show the Steelers at a very bad (#25) as they have allowed (245PY) per game which is bottom 5. But they were missing some key secondary players early on and the Pass Rush has been so much stronger the past 3 weeks (5. 6. 6 sacks) and tons of QB pressures (16 last week vs. Browns QB Gabriel and 8 passes defended). Having what they hoped suiting up in Secondary to start the season is now flourishing finally having them all back.
BENGALS HAVE BIG PROBLEMS ON THE OFFENSIVE LINE – ONE OF WORST IN NFL
It’s very hard for your Offense to get into a good rhythm if you can’t block for the QB and can’t open holes for your running backs. I’ve watched game tapes for nearly 4 decades and this Browns OL is really bad. Flacco went from a really Bad Browns OL to an even worse Bengals OL. I have really struggled with Bengals OC play calling as they run 11 Personnel way too often (74%) considering they need extra help protecting QB and most of the time they have only 1 TE in to help block.
I can’t figure for the life of me why they don’t run more 12 Personnel and help out this terrible Offensive Line with an extra solid blocking TE in there. WR’s Chase and Higgins and one of the TE’s going out is plenty if the QB has a little extra time to get the passes out as they both know how to get open. Losing teams usually lose because the playcallers are clueless.
Another hurdle a struggling OL (especially the RT/LT duo of Bengals Brown and Mims, who are being destroyed by opposing Edge Rushers) and not opening any holes for its running backs and no RB in the NFL has been hurt worse than Bengals #1 RB Chase Brown. Last year he was a workhorse and put up big numbers. This year since the Bengals almost never get any OL push he’s been so indecisive and he’s averaging a pathetic (2.7YPR). Opposing Defenses are in the backfield almost the same time he’s being handed the ball from his QB’s. With no QB Joe Burrow the Bengals play calling has been too vanilla. Last week in Flacco’s first start with the Bengals he passed the ball 45x and only 36 went 10+ yards in air.
Flacco had only (2.35) seconds to pass the ball and that means Opposing Defenses getting solid pass rush (Like Steelers Pass Rush should in this game) knowing you won’t burn them deep nor burn them with your Running game that is non existent right now (57 RYPG – DEAD LAST). I’ve always said when you can’t make big plays you start to force them to happen. Well folks Bengals QB’s are second worst in the NFL with (8) Interceptions. What’s worse is Flacco’s EPA is ahead of only two QB’s, the Titans Ward and the guy he is replacing, Jake Browning. OUCH!
STEELERS TIGHT ENDS AND WIDE OUTS SHOULD EAT NICELY vs. BENGALS DEFENSE!
In the Offseason the Steelers traded for stud WR D.K. Metcalf and that move has really paid off. Adding TE J. Smith was also a nice pickup. The Bengals’ Defense has the 2nd lowest Blitz rate (16%) and 3rd lowest Pressure rate (27%) and for some reason they are awful vs. Play Action fakes as they seem to bite almost every time leaving receivers wide open. The Steelers also have TE D. Washington, so they are solid and should feast vs. one of my worst rated LB corps in the league.
They are missing so many tackles that they already have made big changes to younger guys hoping (more like praying) they can start to tackle better and make more stops and get off the field. So far, to me on tape, only DJ Turner has been really impressive and longtime Pass Rush star Trey Hendrickson (4 sacks so far). Bad News is Hendrickson is very likely to miss this game on this short week after being hurt last week in the second half.
The Steelers have gone to quicker, shorter passes (29% behind LOS) and a whopping (72%) of their total yards have come after Rodgers completions. Why does this stat scream out so big for this matchup? The Bengals Defense has allowed an insane (999) yards AFTER THE CATCH.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME TV MATCHUP TO WATCH:
PITT. STEELERS: Terrible (1-9) Straight Up Last 10 Thursday Night TV games but 4 of last 5 did go “OVER” the posted Total. Cinci has gone “OVER” 4 of it’s last 6 Thursday affairs.
LAST YEAR: Pittsburgh won a high scoring shootout in Cinci (44-38). Pittsburgh has covered the past 4 meetings (4-0) ATS.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Already lead NFC North by 2 ½ games and a win in this game likely starts the Bengals selling off trading players for draft picks for the needed future rebuild when Burrow returns.
BENGALS QB FLACCO: Has not led either the Browns/Bengals to over 18 points in a game this season.
2025 THURSDAY PRIME TV GAMES: 3 “OVERS’ ~ 3 “UNDERS”
ALL 2025 PRIME TIME GAMES THIS YEAR: 10 “OVERS” ~ 11 “UNDERS”
FINAL PASS:
You can usually throw out the records for these longtime hated Rivalries and now it’s a game being played on a very short week. The short week’s travel isn’t bad though for the Steelers who are pretty rested anyway already having their “Bye” week. I know Flacco seemed to settle in the second half last week, but that was when the Packers had a big lead and really more tried to run out the clock and this is against a Steelers Defense now hitting on all cylinders. I am excited to see how the new look Steelers Secondary fares vs. Bengals stud WR’s Chase and Higgins as in the past those two destroyed the now all gone for most the part Steelers past secondary. This one is more equipped with more size and strength to battle them at the Line of Scrimmage.
Can the awesome white tiger uniforms and the home crowd “WILL” this really bad Bengals team on both sides of the ball to a huge “Upset” win and keep them in the race for a bit longer? I would surely not be putting my money on it. The Thursday barking dogs though this year have done well so the Bengals can use any positive they can get as their past 4 games performance is easily one of worst I’ve ever watched in my 36 year career. The Steelers need to start scoring more TD’s and less FG’s as they keep opponents in too many games. Until they do they will need the Defense to be dominant to win games.
I am taking a Pass here tonight as I checked the PROP bets but most were a bit high for my liking. The last game I picked for a national TV Game Preview I selected the Falcons RB B. Robinson and the Bills RB Cook to exceed their Rushing Yards Props and both cashed with B. Robinson doubling it. If you need a wager I’d look to Top 3 Steelers Pass Rushers to get a “SACK” or Team Sacks – “OVER” as they have been elite past 3 games.
Enjoy the game as much as possible, but I don’t expect tons of exciting fireworks in this one.
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.
Politics8 years ago