Politics
Ben Diamond might not have defeated Ken Welch, but …
St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch, as an incumbent who made history as the city’s first Black Mayor, will be hard to defeat.
But it’s not impossible.
A combination of unfavorable views regarding his first term in office and rapidly changing political demographics sets up a potentially competitive contest … if the right candidate were to join the race.
To be clear, at this point, a Republican still cannot win a citywide election. But the writing is on the wall for Democrats looking at blue St. Pete as a sort of last bastion of liberal hopes and dreams.
The latest voter registration numbers in Florida show an ever-growing gap between Republicans and Democrats, favoring the GOP by 54,000 votes since just the beginning of August.
Democrats have been hemorrhaging voters since the COVID pandemic, leaving the Florida GOP lapping the party at ever-increasing rates.
It’s so clear that I actually agree with Gov. Ron DeSantis on one issue: Florida should have a mid-decade redistricting.
Groan all you like, but the state has changed too much over the first five years of this decade to NOT redraw maps. Counties that were purple are now red. Heck, counties that were blue are now red; looking at you Hillsborough. Congressional districts that were not competitive for Republicans are now in play.
Add to those changing demographics the changes to election laws in recent years, and candidates and their campaigns are largely flying blind in terms of what the electorate in their district actually looks like heading into the 2026 cycle.
That’s just as true, if not more, in St. Pete.
First, we don’t know what we don’t know, and that’s always a huge challenge for strategists.
Second, performance data from previous mayoral elections is now basically useless (though there’s a slight caveat, more on that in a moment). Previous mayoral elections, including Welch’s, took place in off-years. This one will take place in a Midterm year, when turnout will be different and bigger, even if it won’t match a Presidential Election cycle.
That means the electorate that first voted Welch into office in 2021 will not be the same electorate he faces in 2026. That doesn’t spell bad news for the incumbent Mayor, but it does emphasize the challenge at play.
Perhaps most importantly, St. Pete, like the state, is bleeding active Democratic voters. In 2020 there were nearly 205,000 registered voters. Turnout in the Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump race reached 78%, with Biden claiming more than 97,000 votes compared to less than 59,000 for Trump.
Just four years later, there were about nearly 28,000 fewer registered voters, despite citywide population growth. The margin between Trump and Kamala Harris was far smaller, at just shy of 85,000 votes for Harris to more than 57,000 for Trump.
That means Republican turnout remained statistically consistent while Democratic performance saw significant drop-off.
Lastly, and I’ll delve into this in more detail in a future post, St. Pete’s demographics are changing, even if the population has become relatively static. Ask anyone who has lived in St. Pete for a significant amount of time about the changes they’re seeing as they drive around town and you’ll hear some consistencies: Trailer parks are being converted into tony apartments and one-story homes are being bulldozed to make room for waterfront McMansions.
What that means for St. Pete is clear: Within a decade, the Democratic advantage over Republicans in the city will likely be down to single digits.
Republicans hoping to challenge Welch next year, take note. That includes former Sen. Jeff Brandes, who, unless he wants to dump millions of his own money into a race, can’t win.
Likewise for Robert Blackmon. He has matured as a community leader and person, and I predict he will one day be Mayor of St. Petersburg. But now is not the time.
At this point, Welch can only be defeated by another Democrat, and there’s no doubt in my mind that was Ben Diamond’s calculus when he floated his trial balloon.
For whatever reason though, Diamond’s polling numbers show he wasn’t the person to defeat Welch.
And here’s where the history of St. Pete electing Mayors is still relevant. Ever since David Fischer was elected as the city’s first strong Mayor, there has been a consistent template. Two White candidates split the northeast and west St. Pete vote while one overwhelmingly dominates the Black community vote.
That was the difference-maker. We saw it with Fischer. We saw it with Rick Baker. We saw it with Bill Foster. To some extent, we saw it with Rick Kriseman, though Baker still maintained some strong allegiances within the Black community.
Enter Welch. He upended that formula, consolidating the Democratic vote and causing the preferred candidate of Northeast St. Pete to lose for the first time in 30 years.
So while the Black vote has historically been the tie-breaker, the disappearance of so many Democratic voters has increased the GOP’s voting power, even if not fully giving them an advantage.
That’s bad news for Welch, who has led an anti-development, pro-DEI administration and is increasingly held in disdain among moderate and GOP voters.
Likely, that’s what Diamond’s internal polling showed: the Ken Welch Paradox. That is, he’s probably viewed unfavorably, with numbers likely upside down after last year’s devastating hurricanes. But he still probably leads in other re-election polling because he’s being ballot-tested against right-leaning candidates, such as Brandes and Blackmon.
Instead, the formula for defeating Welch is to run at him from both the right AND the left. The race needs a Democrat who can hit him on his weak defense of the city against the DeSantis administration (just Wednesday it was reported that the Welch administration meekly dropped the words “diversity” and “equity” from the names of city departments), but who also makes GOP voters comfortable enough to support them.
Diamond likely realized he could neither out-Democrat Welch nor consolidate the moderate or GOP vote.
But Diamond’s retreat has made Welch even more arrogant, and that won’t do him any favors. I’m hearing from other media outlets that his administration is less communicative than ever. For example, Welch declined to be interviewed by the Tampa Bay Business Journal for a story that was nothing but positive for the city.
The story highlighted how St. Pete has gone from its long-held status as “God’s waiting room,” a reference to the days of it being a sleepy retirement town, to a mecca for Generation Z and Millennials. That’s the type of earned media elected officials jump at, yet Welch declined, offering instead a canned statement that amounted to a missed opportunity to hype his city, and himself.
In his defense, it’s still entirely possible that Welch will escape without facing a real challenge in 2026. The only candidate in the race so far has never won an election despite trying several times. But the city’s rapidly changing demographics and the switch to Midterm Election years presents a lane for the right candidate — if one will step up.
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Former House Speaker Paul Renner is formalizing his push for the Governor’s Mansion with a new organizing arm focused on women voters.
Renner’s campaign just announced the creation of a statewide steering committee for its “Women for Renner Coalition,” assembling dozens of conservative activists, educators, business leaders and faith-based advocates to amplify women’s voices supporting his gubernatorial bid.
The coalition, the campaign said, is designed to mobilize women across political and professional lines around issues. Among them: parental rights, public safety, faith, economic opportunity and what the campaign describes as “principled leadership.”
Renner said in a statement Tuesday that the coalition will serve as both a values-driven and operational component of his campaign.
“Women are the heart and voice of families and communities,” Renner said. “I am honored to have the growing support of strong, dedicated female leaders that will ensure their concerns remain front and center — especially when it comes to protecting faith, American exceptionalism, parental rights, a prosperous economy, and defending the principles of freedom that guide us.”
The “Women for Renner Coalition” will function as an internal organizing network, encouraging women across Florida to share personal stories, engage voters and advocate on key campaign issues. The campaign said the group will also work to elevate women’s perspectives in policymaking and community engagement.
Adriana Renner, the candidate’s wife, said she has seen her husband’s commitment to families and praised the coalition as a vehicle for advancing what the campaign calls a “Florida First agenda.”
“I know his heart and his dedication to serving Florida’s families runs deep,” she said in a statement.
Several conservative activists and former officials offered endorsements through the announcement, praising Renner’s record on parental rights, medical freedom and opposition to federal overreach.
Nancy Peek McGowan, who held prominent roles in past campaigns of Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, highlighted Renner’s background as a U.S. Navy veteran, former state prosecutor and University of Florida law graduate.
“As the former State Chairwoman for ‘Women for DeSantis,” she said, “I can say with certainty, Paul Renner is the only authentic conservative running for Governor with a lifetime record to prove it.”
Mary Flynn O’Neill, Executive Director of America’s Future, said Renner has exhibited “steadfast leadership to protect the ideals that matter most to Floridians.”
“Paul Renner has consistently championed the principles that define our nation — faith, freedom, and the enduring strength of the American family,” she said. “His leadership reflects a deep respect for the values that unite our communities and guide Florida forward.
The steering committee itself includes more than 40 members from across the state, ranging from local school board officials and former legislators to nonprofit executives, physicians and student activists.
They include Wendy Biddle, educator and activist; Regina Brown, Realtor and President of Transforming Florida; Lourdes Castillo, businesswoman and conservative activist; Virginia Cortes, nonprofit executive; Ann Dugger, former Executive Director of the Justice Coalition; Maureen France, conservative activist and former Chair of Citizens Against Legalizing Marijuana Florida; Mara Frazier, educator and conservative activist; Christi Griner, patient advocate and former state leader for Concerned Women of America; Jenna Hague, business leader and political activist; Mary Lou Hendry, pro-life advocate; Stephanie Jacobson, pro-life advocate; Charlotte Joyce, Duval County School Board member; Debbie Joyce, business leader and conservative activist; Jill Kiley, health freedom advocate; Bailey Kuykendoll, health freedom advocate; Lori Long, business leader and Central Florida community activist; Zarai Maza, CEO of Guardians of Human Rights Foundation; Aimee Villela-McBride, Executive Director of Global Wellness Forum; Aislynn Thomas-McDonald, lawyer and conservative advocate; Nancy Peek McGowan, former co-Chair of the DeSantis gubernatorial campaign and Rubio campaign grassroots leader; Kate Morales, student activist; Karyn Morton, leader of the Republican Liberty Caucus, co-founder of the Duval Trump Club, and former Duval County GOP Chair and Committeewoman; Andrea Marconi Nasteli, physician and grassroots advocate; Becky Nathanson, education activist; Mary Flynn O’Neill, Executive Director of America’s Future; Lindsay Randall, education leader and advocate; Adriana Renner; Miriam Ramirez, physician and former state Senator of Puerto Rico; Isabelle Sala, educator; Ginger Soud, former Jacksonville City Council Chair and Duval County co-Chair of Trump for President; Cyndi Stevenson, former state Representative; Patti Sullivan, parental rights advocate; Ann Vandersteel, radio show host and conservative activist.
The launch comes as Florida’s 2026 Governor’s race begins to take clearer shape. Notable Republicans lining up to succeed DeSantis, who faces term limits, include U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and investment executive James Fishback.
Two high-profile Democrats, former U.S. Rep. David Jolly and ex-Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, are also running.
DeSantis hasn’t yet weighed in on the contest, which Lt. Gov. Jay Collins has hinted at entering.
The Florida Realtors PAC is backing Bill Poteet in the race for House District 82, adding the powerful real estate group’s support to his bid for the Southwest Florida seat.
The political arm of Florida Realtors cited Poteet’s professional background, community involvement and familiarity with regional issues. Poteet is a Realtor, small-business owner and longtime resident of the district.
“As a REALTOR, small-business owner and longtime resident of southwest Florida, the citizens of House District 82 would be hard-pressed to find a more effective representative for their area than Bill Poteet,” said Marilyn Pearson-Adams, Chair of the Florida Realtors PAC Trustees.
“He is incredibly active in his community, serving in leadership positions in numerous local and non-profit organizations, and his knowledge as a REALTOR has given him a deep understanding of the issues facing the region. He would be an outstanding addition to the Florida House of Representatives.”
Florida Realtors PAC routinely weighs in on legislative races across the state, supporting candidates it views as aligned with property rights, economic growth and housing affordability. Endorsements from the group can carry significant weight, particularly in districts where real estate and development play a central role in the local economy.
Republican Rep. Lauren Melo currently represents HD 82, but is seeking a Senate seat in 2026.
Rancher Liesa Priddy and Hugo Vargas are also competing in the Republican Primary. Melo has backed Priddy as her preferred successor.
Priddy is leading the field in fundraising, with around $151,000 raised.
Poteet, meanwhile, has collected more than $33,000 via his campaign account and his political committee, Friends of Bill Poteet. Vargas has raised almost $22,000 through his account and his political committee, Friends of Hugo Vargas.
Democratic candidate Arthur Boyer has also filed for the race.
HD 82 covers a swath of Southwest Florida, including Hendry County and parts of Collier County.
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