Connect with us

Politics

Ben Diamond might not have defeated Ken Welch, but …

Published

on


St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch, as an incumbent who made history as the city’s first Black Mayor, will be hard to defeat.

But it’s not impossible.

A combination of unfavorable views regarding his first term in office and rapidly changing political demographics sets up a potentially competitive contest … if the right candidate were to join the race.

To be clear, at this point, a Republican still cannot win a citywide election. But the writing is on the wall for Democrats looking at blue St. Pete as a sort of last bastion of liberal hopes and dreams.

The latest voter registration numbers in Florida show an ever-growing gap between Republicans and Democrats, favoring the GOP by 54,000 votes since just the beginning of August.

Democrats have been hemorrhaging voters since the COVID pandemic, leaving the Florida GOP lapping the party at ever-increasing rates.

It’s so clear that I actually agree with Gov. Ron DeSantis on one issue: Florida should have a mid-decade redistricting.

Groan all you like, but the state has changed too much over the first five years of this decade to NOT redraw maps. Counties that were purple are now red. Heck, counties that were blue are now red; looking at you Hillsborough. Congressional districts that were not competitive for Republicans are now in play.

Add to those changing demographics the changes to election laws in recent years, and candidates and their campaigns are largely flying blind in terms of what the electorate in their district actually looks like heading into the 2026 cycle.

That’s just as true, if not more, in St. Pete.

First, we don’t know what we don’t know, and that’s always a huge challenge for strategists.

Second, performance data from previous mayoral elections is now basically useless (though there’s a slight caveat, more on that in a moment). Previous mayoral elections, including Welch’s, took place in off-years. This one will take place in a Midterm year, when turnout will be different and bigger, even if it won’t match a Presidential Election cycle.

That means the electorate that first voted Welch into office in 2021 will not be the same electorate he faces in 2026. That doesn’t spell bad news for the incumbent Mayor, but it does emphasize the challenge at play.

Perhaps most importantly, St. Pete, like the state, is bleeding active Democratic voters. In 2020 there were nearly 205,000 registered voters. Turnout in the Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump race reached 78%, with Biden claiming more than 97,000 votes compared to less than 59,000 for Trump.

Just four years later, there were about nearly 28,000 fewer registered voters, despite citywide population growth. The margin between Trump and Kamala Harris was far smaller, at just shy of 85,000 votes for Harris to more than 57,000 for Trump.

That means Republican turnout remained statistically consistent while Democratic performance saw significant drop-off.

Lastly, and I’ll delve into this in more detail in a future post, St. Pete’s demographics are changing, even if the population has become relatively static. Ask anyone who has lived in St. Pete for a significant amount of time about the changes they’re seeing as they drive around town and you’ll hear some consistencies: Trailer parks are being converted into tony apartments and one-story homes are being bulldozed to make room for waterfront McMansions.

What that means for St. Pete is clear: Within a decade, the Democratic advantage over Republicans in the city will likely be down to single digits.

Republicans hoping to challenge Welch next year, take note. That includes former Sen. Jeff Brandes, who, unless he wants to dump millions of his own money into a race, can’t win.

Likewise for Robert Blackmon. He has matured as a community leader and person, and I predict he will one day be Mayor of St. Petersburg. But now is not the time.

At this point, Welch can only be defeated by another Democrat, and there’s no doubt in my mind that was Ben Diamond’s calculus when he floated his trial balloon.

For whatever reason though, Diamond’s polling numbers show he wasn’t the person to defeat Welch.

And here’s where the history of St. Pete electing Mayors is still relevant. Ever since David Fischer was elected as the city’s first strong Mayor, there has been a consistent template. Two White candidates split the northeast and west St. Pete vote while one overwhelmingly dominates the Black community vote.

That was the difference-maker. We saw it with Fischer. We saw it with Rick Baker. We saw it with Bill Foster. To some extent, we saw it with Rick Kriseman, though Baker still maintained some strong allegiances within the Black community.

Enter Welch. He upended that formula, consolidating the Democratic vote and causing the preferred candidate of Northeast St. Pete to lose for the first time in 30 years.

So while the Black vote has historically been the tie-breaker, the disappearance of so many Democratic voters has increased the GOP’s voting power, even if not fully giving them an advantage.

That’s bad news for Welch, who has led an anti-development, pro-DEI administration and is increasingly held in disdain among moderate and GOP voters.

Likely, that’s what Diamond’s internal polling showed: the Ken Welch Paradox. That is, he’s probably viewed unfavorably, with numbers likely upside down after last year’s devastating hurricanes. But he still probably leads in other re-election polling because he’s being ballot-tested against right-leaning candidates, such as Brandes and Blackmon.

Instead, the formula for defeating Welch is to run at him from both the right AND the left. The race needs a Democrat who can hit him on his weak defense of the city against the DeSantis administration (just Wednesday it was reported that the Welch administration meekly dropped the words “diversity” and “equity” from the names of city departments), but who also makes GOP voters comfortable enough to support them.

Diamond likely realized he could neither out-Democrat Welch nor consolidate the moderate or GOP vote.

But Diamond’s retreat has made Welch even more arrogant, and that won’t do him any favors. I’m hearing from other media outlets that his administration is less communicative than ever. For example, Welch declined to be interviewed by the Tampa Bay Business Journal for a story that was nothing but positive for the city.

The story highlighted how St. Pete has gone from its long-held status as “God’s waiting room,” a reference to the days of it being a sleepy retirement town, to a mecca for Generation Z and Millennials. That’s the type of earned media elected officials jump at, yet Welch declined, offering instead a canned statement that amounted to a missed opportunity to hype his city, and himself.

In his defense, it’s still entirely possible that Welch will escape without facing a real challenge in 2026. The only candidate in the race so far has never won an election despite trying several times. But the city’s rapidly changing demographics and the switch to Midterm Election years presents a lane for the right candidate — if one will step up.


Post Views: 0



Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

American Council of Engineering Companies gives awards to 14 firms that worked on Florida projects

Published

on


The American Council of Engineering Companies of Florida (ACEC Florida) is awarding more than a dozen engineering firms responsible for Florida public projects for their work.

The projects being honored range from complex road interchanges to environmental projects. The Engineering Excellence Awards will be presented at the ACEC Florida banquet set for Feb. 13 at the Hyatt Regency in Orlando.

Of the 14 engineering companies that will be honored for their Florida work, seven firms will snag top honors known as “grand awards.” Out of those, one will be named the Florida “Grand Concepter Award” winner. All of those top seven recipients will be eligible for the national Grand Conceptor title.

“Florida’s professional engineering community are among the finest in the country, and we’re proud to recognize their extraordinary contributions and innovations,” said Richard Acree, President of ACEC Florida. “The business of engineering is delivering through design build projects that are enhancing the lives of Floridians.”

The Grand Award winners include:

— Black & Veatch for Water Resources category and an H2.0 Purification Center for JEA.

— DRMP, Inc. for Transportation category and the Wekiva Parkway Section 8 Interchange Design-Build for Florida Department of Transportation.

— Hanson Professional Services Inc. for Transportation category for the Bartow Executive Airport Digital ATC Tower for the Bartow Executive Airport Development Authority.

— Kisinger Campo & Associates, Corp. in the Studies, Research and Consulting category for the SR 429 Widening & Systemwide Flex Lanes for the Central Florida Expressway Authority.

— Taylor Engineering, Inc. for the Studies, Research and Consulting category and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection Statewide Vulnerability Assessment.

— TLP Engineering Consultants, in the Transportation Category for the State Road 417 Widening from I-Drive to John Young Parkway for the Central Florida Expressway Authority.

— WGI, in the Transportation category for the Jacksonville Transportation Authority Bay Street Innovation.

The companies named for Honor winners include:

— CHA Consulting, Inc.

— EAC Consulting, Inc.

— Hanson Professional Services Inc.

— Jacobs.

— PRIME AE Group, Inc.

— Wade Trim.

— WGI, Inc.



Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Ashley Moody slams Harvard for hiring protester arrested for assaulting Israeli student

Published

on


U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody slammed Harvard University for hiring a student accused of assaulting pro-Israel peers during campus protests.

The Plant City Republican criticized the university after the New York Post reported that Elom Tettey-Tamaklo had been hired as a graduate teaching Fellow. According to the academic’s LinkedIn, he took on that role in August, months after he faced misdemeanor charges of assaulting an Israeli classmate.

“Leaders must step up to not only condemn antisemitism but show action to faithfully combat this evil. Unfortunately, many profess to want to quash this abhorrent behavior but then make decisions and promote others that bolster antisemitism with a wink and a nod,” Moody posted on social media.

Especially discouraging to Moody, she said, was that she had spoken to Harvard’s leadership specifically about the need to drive out antisemitism from its campus culture.

“Earlier this year, I sat down with Harvard President Alan Garber. During our meeting, I expressed my deep frustration with Harvard’s inaction regarding students who violated the civil rights of, and even assaulted, their peers simply because of their religion. It’s a reason I introduced the RECLAIM Act to send a message that these schools must be held accountable. I also pointed out that the university continues to reward those that support an anti-Israel agenda,” she posted.

“With this latest hire, it appears Harvard remains on an indefensible path. This is another example of why a once-great university is becoming at best a national embarrassment and at worst purposefully promoting harmful ideals. Harvard should refocus its mission on again becoming a university that students aspire to attend for academic excellence and not a utopia for woke radicals.”

The Recouping Educational Contributions Linked to Antisemitic Institutional Misconduct (RECLAIM) Act (S 1069) would allow the government to claw back federal grants to institutions of higher education if it is found they have violated students’ civil rights. The bill in March was referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Tettey-Tamaklo was charged with assault and battery in 2023, according to the Post, after video went viral of him and other protesters surrounding an Israeli student and shouting “shame.” The incident occurred amid campus protests nationwide of the Israeli conflict in Gaza following Hamas terror attacks that year. The Post said he was ordered to complete anger management courses and complete community service, but that the case was ultimately dismissed in November 2024.

Tettey-Tamaklo was a student at Harvard Divinity School at the time and one of the organizers of Graduate Students 4 Palestine, according to The Harvard Crimson. He has discussed his involvement in student activism on social media, including after a speech to the Muslim Public Affairs Council Foundation in Los Angeles.

“I shared some reflections on the importance of student activism and the need to keep Palestine at the forefront of our minds,” he wrote on LinkedIn two weeks ago.

When others shared the Post story about his hire on his page, Tetty-Tamaklo shared news reports noting that a Judge dismissed antidiscrimination lawsuits from Harvard grad students who claimed they faced pervasive antisemitism at the school.

“While the court does not condone an assault on a fellow student by campus protestors, nothing in the Amended Complaint plausibly supports the notion that his assailants’ conduct was motivated by race-based antisemitism,” the Judge wrote in a ruling, as reported by the Crimson.



Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Last Call for 12.15.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

Published

on


Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

A new national survey finds Americans across demographic and partisan lines continue to support policies that expand parental control and education choice in K-12 schools, including open enrollment, education savings accounts, and education tax credits.

The polling, conducted by YouGov on behalf of yes. every kid. foundation., surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide between Nov. 19 and Nov. 24 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.

According to the survey, 64% of respondents support allowing students to attend any public school in their state regardless of where they live, while 63% support education savings accounts that will enable families to direct public education funds toward tuition, tutoring, or other education-related expenses. Support for education tax credits reached 58%.

The findings show consistent backing for education choice policies across key demographic groups, including majorities of K-12 parents, Black voters, Hispanic voters, and voters in both major political parties.

Support for greater parental accountability was also a central theme in the survey. More than three-quarters of respondents said K-12 schools need to be more accountable to parents, and 61% agreed schools would be more accountable if families could leave a school and take their education funding with them.

“Americans across the country are united behind education freedom. They want to give families more authority, more flexibility, and more options than the current system offers, and the data shows they are far ahead of the political debate,” said Matt Frendewey, vice president of Strategy at yes. every kid. foundation.

The polling also found education remains a high-priority issue for voters heading into the 2026 election cycle. A majority of respondents rated education as highly important in their vote for Congress next year, and education had a net positive impact on ballot decisions across party lines.

While respondents expressed confidence in parents and state governments to make education decisions, the federal government ranked lowest in trust. Nearly two-thirds of voters said K-12 education decisions should be made by those closest to students — families, teachers, and local communities — rather than by national experts.

“For the third year in a row, our survey demonstrates that Americans are demanding a new direction in education, one that respects the needs of every child, shifts accountability to families, and expands opportunities to empower all children to succeed,” Frendewey said.

Evening Reads

—“Donald Trump bashes late director Rob Reiner, drawing immediate backlash” via Amy B. Wang of The Washington Post

—”Nvidia becomes a major model maker with Nemotron 3” via Will Knight of WIRED

—”How a tech-savvy officer finally cracked the Jan. 6 pipe-bombs case” via Sadie Gurman and C. Ryan Barber of The Wall Street Journal

—”The SEC was tough on crypto. It pulled back after Trump returned to office.” via Ben Protess, Andrea Fuller, Sharon LaFraniere and Seamus Hughes of The New York Times

—”The unexpected link between your diet and your anxiety” via Hannah Seo of Vox

—”‘The sun rises and sets with her, man’” via Jesse Raub of The Atlantic

—”How did ‘Heat’ become the most beloved crime movie of the past 30 years?” via David Fear of Rolling Stone

—”Ron DeSantis warns of dangers of AI, calls for Florida to regulate the technology” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—”Orlando ICE office becomes place of fear as asylum seekers line up to learn their fate” via Natalia Jaramillo of the Orlando Sentinel

—“Former Florida Supreme Court justice speaks out for an independent judiciary” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix

Quote of the Day

“I’m not concerned about the recent executive order, because it doesn’t apply against the states directly.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on Trump’s executive order pre-empting state-level AI regulations.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Wilton Simpson gets a Candy Cane for handing out personalized “Certificates of Clearance” recognizing Santa’s imminent arrival.

U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis gets a Crystal Clear for getting on board with a movement to reduce the impacts of the Clean Water Act.

The Florida State Parks Foundation gets a Park Lane in celebration of yet another record in annual financial impact.

 

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Lightning host Panthers

Florida’s NHL rivals meet tonight with the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Florida Panthers (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network, SCRIPPS).

Tampa Bay leads the Atlantic Division standings, tied with the Detroit Red Wings on points. No team in the division has as impressive a goal differential as the Lightning, who have outscored the opposition by 21 goals this season.

Remarkably, Tampa Bay is only one game over .500 at home, having won eight of 15 games on home ice. 

Injuries have been an issue for the Lightning, but they continue to get results, winning four of the last five games. 

Florida, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, sits five points behind the Lightning in the standings. Tonight’s game marks the end of a four-game road trip for the Panthers, who have won two of the previous three games on the road. It is the second meeting between the two Sunshine State rivals this season. Tampa Bay won the first game 3-1 on Nov. 15 in South Florida. The two organizations will meet twice more in the regular season, Dec. 27 in South Florida and Feb. 5 in Tampa.

Florida’s Sam Reinhart has enjoyed success against the Lightning, scoring 18 goals in 35 games against Tampa Bay.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.