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Asia will get steady growth next year, defying global headwinds: Mastercard’s chief APAC economist

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“The actual contributions to global growth come more from the Asia-Pacific region than they do from the Americas or Europe,” says David Mann, Mastercard’s chief APAC economist, in an interview with Fortune. 

Mann credits plentiful investment, particularly in technology and infrastructure associated with the AI buildout, for Asia’s resilient growth. He adds that the APAC region is unique as three-quarters of its foreign direct investment comes from the rest of the region, rather than from non-Asian sources. 

With the U.S. being an increasingly unreliable trade partner, Asian countries are looking to build supply chains with their neighbors. “Even more investment is going into other markets around the region, from China, to Japan and South Korea, to help expand supply chains and capacity in multiple markets for diversification,” says Mann. 

Uneven growth in ASEAN

Mastercard predicts that growth trajectories will diverge in Southeast Asia next year. Among the ASEAN-5 nations (the five founding and largest economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Indonesia and the Philippines will expand steadily, while growth moderates in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

“We think that there will be some support in Indonesia, from fiscal policy and investment expansion,” Mann says, adding that he predicts “steady growth” (5% real GDP growth) in Southeast Asia’s most populous country.

In the Philippines, multiple one-off shocks in 2025 have led analysts to predict stronger growth rates in 2026, due to more moderate growth this year.

Thailand, on the other hand, is going through a “softer patch”, with Mann calling it one of the slower-growing economies in the region.

Mastercard predicts real GDP growth in Thailand to slow to 1.8% in 2026. The country faces “relatively large” demographic challenge, Mann adds, pointing to the country’s rapid transition into a super-aged society due to its record-low birth rates.

The rising middle class

Yet, Mann argues that there are reasons to be optimistic about Southeast Asia’s growth.

“ASEAN itself is a big, significant global player, even compared to Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America and the EMEA region,” he says. “It’s a significant region that has still got a rising middle class and urbanization story, especially in places like Vietnam.”

The young region’s growing affluence will also increase consumer spending, further spurring growth. Southeast Asia’s relatively young, digitally-savvy demographic also provides a steady flow of customers chasing the latest consumer trends. 

“If you’re producing in Indonesia, you would be selling there as well, because it’s such a huge market—over 40% of the ASEAN populace is in Indonesia itself,” says Mann. 

A richer demographic is also likely to travel more. “As you get more and more people becoming more affluent, they’re moving beyond just buying stuff to going for experiences—and travel is at the top of that list,” says Mann.

The resurgence of tourism after the pandemic is also a boon for Southeast Asia, a popular travel destination for regional and global tourists alike. In 2025, Thailand especially saw a surge in tourists, following the release of the third season of hit HBO TV series, The White Lotus, which was filmed in various Thai cities including Koh Samui, Phuket and Bangkok.

Globally, alternative destinations (or destination dupes) have also grown increasingly popular, as  travelers seek out the path less trodden. “That means that you can see even more places opening up where you get tourists going in—where they’d never been before,” Mann explains. This would spur job creation and infrastructure investment, and spread the economic gains from tourism over different regions of the country.

“In places like Thailand or Malaysia, we have seen an increased dispersion of the share of spending. It used to be that the top five destinations had the lion’s share of all the spending in the country by tourists—and that has been going down steadily year after year,” Mann says.



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Arkansas becomes first state to cut ties with PBS, saying $2.5 million membership dues ‘not feasible’

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The commission that oversees public television in Arkansas voted Thursday to sever ties with PBS, making it the first state to end its contract with the broadcast giant that provides popular television programs such as “Sesame Street,” “Nova” and “Antiques Roadshow.”

The eight-member Arkansas Educational Television Commission, made up entirely of appointees of the governor, announced in a news release Thursday that it planned to disaffiliate from PBS effective July 1, citing annual membership dues of about $2.5 million it described as “not feasible.” The release also cited the unexpected loss of about that same amount of federal funding from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which was targeted for closure earlier this year and defunded by Congress.

PBS Arkansas is rebranding itself as Arkansas TV and will provide more local content, the agency’s Executive Director and CEO Carlton Wing said in a statement. Wing, a former Republican state representative, took the helm of the agency in September.

“Public television in Arkansas is not going away,” Wing said. “In fact, we invite you to join our vision for an increased focus on local programming, continuing to safeguard Arkansans in times of emergency and supporting our K-12 educators and students.”

PBS confirmed in an email Thursday that Arkansas is the first state to definitively sever ties with the broadcaster. Alabama considered similar action last month, but opted to continue paying its contract with PBS after public backlash from viewers and donors.

“The commission’s decision to drop PBS membership is a blow to Arkansans who will lose free, over the air access to quality PBS programming they know and love,” a PBS spokesperson wrote in an email to The Associated Press.

The demise of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, is a direct result of President Donald Trump’s targeting of public media, which he has repeatedly said is spreading political and cultural views antithetical to those the United States should be espousing. The closure is expected to have a profound impact on the journalistic and cultural landscape — in particular, public radio and TV stations in small communities nationwide.

Arkansas House Democratic Leader Rep. Andrew Collins called the demise of PBS in Arkansas sad. “It’s certainly a loss for Arkansas families who value the programming of PBS,” he said.

CPB helps fund both PBS and NPR, but most of its funding is distributed to more than 1,500 local public radio and television stations around the country.



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Disney plus OpenAI: What could go wrong?

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Hello, Alexei Oreskovic pitching in for Allie today. Well folks, this week had it all: A new OpenAI model, reports of an upcoming SpaceX IPO, and even a Waymo baby! And to top it all off, OpenAI and Disney announced a surprise partnership that will include a $1 billion investment in OpenAI and enable OpenAI users to create AI-generated videos with Mickey Mouse and hundreds of other Disney characters.

The 3-year deal is a huge win for OpenAI (all the more so given that Disney simultaneously sent a cease-and-desist letter to Google, accusing the internet giant and OpenAI arch-rival of infringing its IP via its AI systems on a “massive scale”). The question is: Why is the Mouse House rolling out the red carpet for the ChatGPT maker? 

You don’t need a lot of imagination to guess the sordid scenarios that await Disney’s family-friendly cast of characters now that the tortured souls of the internet will have carte blanche to feed them into the AI nightmare machine. There will be safeguards in place to prevent Mickey and friends from doing drugs, fornicating, and engaging in other unseemly or illegal behavior, a source told the Wall Street Journal. And I’m sure absolutely no one will figure out how to bypass those guardrails.

Entertainment businesses need to stay ahead of the trends and make sure they’re relevant to the next generation of consumers, of course. So hooking up with OpenAI is an obvious way for a company to stay connected with the kids. But if there’s any company that would seem in less immediate danger of losing the kids, it’s the company with The Lion King, The Little Mermaid, Donald Duck, and Iron Man. 

This will certainly be an interesting adventure to watch. And perhaps Disney’s deal with OpenAI will prove prescient and astute. I just hope Donald can hold his liquor.

See you Monday,

Alexei Oreskovic
X:@lexnfx
Email:
alexei.oreskovic@fortune.com
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Venture Deals

Harness, a San Francisco-based AI-powered platform designed to ship code faster, raised $240 million in Series E funding. GoldmanSachs led the round and was joined by IVP, MenloVentures, and UnusualVentures.

Port, a Middletown, Del.-based AI agent designed to handle some software developer tasks, raised $100 million in Series C funding. General Atlantic led the round and was joined by Accel, BessemerVenturePartners, and Team8.

Serval, a San Francisco-based developer of AI agents designed for IT processes, raised $75 million in Series B funding. Sequoia led the round and was joined by Redpoint, Meritech, FirstRound, and others.

Medra, a San Francisco-based AI platform designed to accelerate data generation for scientists, raised $52 million in Series A funding. HunanCapital led the round and was joined by LuxCapital, Neo, NFDG, and others.

RelationalAI, a San Francisco-based enterprise decision intelligence platform, raised $22.5 million in funding from SnowflakeVentures and AT&TVentures.

HavenEnergy, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based solar and home battery tech company, raised $15 million in Series B funding. GiantVentures led the round and was joined by CaliforniaInfrastructureBank, CarnriteVentures, ChaacVentures, ComcastVentures, and LererHippeau.

Neosapience, the San Francisco-based developer of the Typecast platform for creating voice and video content designed to have emotional intelligence, raised $11.5 million in Series C funding. Intervest led the round and was joined by HBInvestment, K2Investment, and BokwangInvestment.

Skydo, a Bangalore, India-based payments platform for global exporters, raised $10 million in Series A funding. SusquehannaAsiaVentureCapital and ElevationCapital.

Subsense, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based developer of non-surgically invasive, nanoparticle-based brain-computer interfaces, raised $10 million in funding from GoldenFalconCapital.

Kilo, a San Francisco-based open source coding agent, raised $8 million in seed funding. CotaCapital led the round and was joined by Breakers, GeneralCatalyst, QuietCapital, and TokyoBlack.

OnMe, a San Francisco-based digital gifting platform, raised $6 million in seed funding. NFX led the round and was joined by existing investors LererHippeau and Focal.

Cyphlens, a New York City-based enterprise security platform, raised $3.8 million in seed funding from SalesforceVentures, MotivateVentures, DCG, ex/ante, and CambrianVentures.

Conveyd, a London, U.K.-based AI conveyancing platform, raised $3.3 million in seed funding. Eka Ventures led the round and was joined by PortfolioVentures and existing investor FoundersFactory and angel investors.

Realm.Security, a Boston, Mass.-based security data pipeline platform, raised $2 million in funding from PresidioVentures.

Private Equity

LongRidgeEquityPartners acquired a majority stake in OnCorpsAI, a Boston, Mass.-based agentic AI platform designed for fund operations, for $55 million.

Aretum, a portfolio company of RenovusCapitalPartners, acquired VeteransEngineering, a Rockville, M.D.-based IT modernization, cybersecurity, and cloud architecture company for mission-critical government programs. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Rentsync, backed by SilversmithCapitalPartners, acquired Spacelist, a Vancouver, Canada-based real estate listing marketplace. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Exits

PerimeterSolutions agreed to acquire MedicalManufacturingTechnologies, a Charlotte, N.C.-based provider of medical manufacturing solutions, from ArclineInvestmentManagement for $685 million.

ExperiGreenLawnCare, backed by WindPointPartners, acquired TurfMastersBrand, a Roswell, Ga.-based lawn care company, from CenterOakPartners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Funds + Funds of Funds

SwishVentures, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based venture capital firm, raised $100 million for a new fund focused on companies in cybersecurity, infrastructure, and AI.

People

CoreInnovationCapital, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based venture capital firm, hired Michael J. Hsu as venture partner. He most recently served as Comptroller of the Currency.



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Retail investors drive stocks to a pre-Christmas all-time high—and Wall Street eyes a moment to sell

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S&P 500 futures ticked downward 0.22% this morning, an indicator that some traders decided overnight to lock in their gains from yesterday’s close, when the index reached a new all-time high of 6,901. The peak was entirely predictable, given that U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell delivered a new dose of liquidity, as expected, via Wednesday’s 0.25% interest rate cut.

Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.51% this morning, premarket, as traders picked winners and losers in the tech sector. Oracle lost another 1% overnight. It’s down more than 9% over the last five sessions after reporting revenue below expectations and capital expenditure above expectations. Alphabet (Google) by contrast was up 0.26% in overnight trading.

The bigger picture is the fact that the S&P 500 has now risen 17.33% year to date.

The trigger for that came from Powell telegraphing 175 basis points of cuts since last year. But the markets have also been driven by retail investors—individuals, as opposed to financial institutions—buying into exchange-traded funds and individual tech stocks, according to Arun Jain and his colleagues at JPMorgan.

In the week up to December 10, retail investors ploughed $7.8 billion into stocks, above the $6.3 billion weekly average. “Retail investors continued to favor ETFs (+$6.3B) over Single Stocks (+$1.5B),” they told clients in a note seen by Fortune.

“2025 is set to be a record year for retail traders in terms of flows (tracking at ~1.9x the 5y avg), 53% above the levels seen last year and 14% above the previous peak during the retail mania of 2021,” they said.

Retail investors probably did very well in the markets this year because they tended to buy the dips—there was a 38% gain between the market’s April low and yesterday—they bought ETFs, and they bought gold (up 65% year to date), the JPM team said.

Retail trading volume has doubled since 2010, according to the Financial Times, and individual investors are now more active than mutual funds and hedge funds.

Retail investors are so enthusiastic for risk assets that some people on Wall Street are starting to worry about it. The Bank of International Settlements—a sort of bank for central banks—published a paper recently arguing that retail traders now represent the dumb money in the market.

“Retail investors continued to pour money into U.S. equity funds, even as institutional investors gradually withdrew,” the bank wrote. “Appetite for precious metals may underscore market participants seeking at least some safe asset exposure in the event that things turn sour. But part of the surge can also be traced to investors trying to take advantage of the momentum in search of price appreciation, consistent with elevated risk-taking.”

Michael Hartnett and his colleagues at Bank of America see it as as sell-signal. Their “Bull & Bear Indicator”—a gauge that measures “investor fear and greed” from technical market data such as fund flows—now stands at 7.8, just below the “extreme bullishness” level that suggests it might be a good time to cash out:

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were down 0.22% this morning. The last session closed up 0.21% to hit a new record high of 6,901. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.37% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.38% in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.37%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.63%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 1.38%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.51%. 
  • Bitcoin went to $92K.
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