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Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood calls Trump tariffs ‘shock therapy’ that could clear the way for freer trade and economic stimulus

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  • Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood is betting on President Donald Trump’s tariffs: the chaos could be a setup for trade deals, and any economic slowdown could be the thing that pushes the administration and central bank into action, she wrote in a recent note. 

Ark Invest founder and Chief Executive Cathie Wood, famous for her bets on Tesla, appears to be betting on the president’s tariffs, too. 

“While many observers fear that the Trump tariff policy is a recipe for economic and geopolitical disaster, we believe that what looked at first glance like the largest and most regressive tax increase in U.S. history could turn out to be quite the opposite,” Wood wrote in a note on Friday. 

President Donald Trump announced a sweeping tariff regime on so-called “Liberation Day” that sent the stock market spiraling and sparked chaos in the bond market. He later announced a 90-day grace period while raising tariffs on China but keeping the door open to a deal.

But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s apparent elevation as the lead on trade negotiations over other administration officials turned Wood bullish.

That comes after reports said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would play “bad cop,” while trade advisor Peter Navarro would be sidelined. 

So “what once seemed like a chaotic situation based on incomprehensible ‘reciprocity’ calculations could have been a setup—premeditated or otherwise—for serious negotiations that will lead to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, neither of which would have been possible without the shock therapy that President Trump administered,” Wood wrote in the note dated April 11. 

She mentioned Elon Musk, too, who she said was “still influential” in the administration and holds a zero-tariff stance. Navarro and Musk clashed over tariffs.

Wood isn’t the first to be critical of the reciprocal tariff calculation, or the first to suggest this could have been the strategy all along. And late Friday night, another tariff reprieve was declared: smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and more, were exempt from tariffs. 

But mixed signals followed. Lutnick said exemptions won’t last and tariffs were coming later, and Trump posted on his social media platform that no one was “off the hook” on tariffs. Still, Monday began with a tech rally and the situation has somewhat calmed.

Wood said that throughout recent volatility in the stock and bond markets, she held that the president was aiming for robust economic growth and a strong market for the second half of the year—an expectation she had before the tariff whiplash began, coming off what she called a “rolling recession.” 

A tariff-induced shock could push the administration and the Federal Reserve, which is in wait-and-see mode, to intervene more forcefully with fiscal and monetary stimulus. 

“Now that much of the economy has seized up in response to the fear of tariffs, the drop in activity is likely to be more severe than otherwise would have been the case, a clarion call for tax cuts, deregulation, and lower interest rates,” she wrote.

Ark Invest did not respond to Fortune’s request for further comment.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Asia is winning the trade war—at least as far as stock markets are concerned

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  • U.S. futures were up this morning in early trading after the S&P 500 rose 2% on Thursday. That’s nice, but the broader global markets have spoken loud and clear ever since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on trade tariffs: Most Asian markets have performed way better than Western ones. Some, like Japan’s TOPIX, are even in positive territory.

Japan’s TOPIX has been in positive territory for the past six months, up 0.37% for the period. It’s an example of a global trend in the equity markets: The Asian indexes are performing much better than the major U.S. markets. India’s Nifty 50 is within one percentage point of going positive over the same time period. 

The U.S.’s S&P 500, however, remains down 6% over that period, dragged underwater by the declining value of the dollar and the Trump administration’s war on free trade. 

Another example: Over the past 30 days, the Nifty 50 was up 1.7%; the S&P was down 5% in the same period. 

In the past 24 hours, however, there have been fresh signs of life in the U.S. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were all up at least 1% at the close of the markets on Thursday as investors continue to hope that the Trump administration will soften its trade agenda.

Strong earnings, particularly from Google, American Airlines, Southwest, and Hasbro, also helped drive gains. The good vibes continued in Asia and Europe this morning, and U.S. futures were in the green, too. 

Here’s a snapshot of today’s action:

  • The S&P 500 rose 2%, notching a third straight day of gains. (Reality check: It’s still down 6.75% YTD.)
  • The Nasdaq Composite was up 2.74%.
  • Palantir was up nearly 7%.
  • U.S. futures contracts for the S&P were up 0.49% this morning, pre–opening bell.
  • In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.9% this morning.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3%.
  • China’s main indexes were flat/mixed.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.35% in early trading.
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100 was marginally positive this morning, up 0.15% in early trading.

How damaging has the flight of capital out of U.S. markets been?

Goldman Sachs put some number on that in a note to clients on the “flight of foreign investors out of U.S. assets,” sent yesterday by analyst Daniel Chavez and his team: “This dynamic poses a substantial risk to equity valuations because foreign investors entered 2025 with a record 18% ownership share of U.S. equities. We estimate foreign investors have sold roughly $60 billion of U.S. stocks since the start of March. High-frequency fund flow data suggest European investors have driven the selling, while other regions have generally continued to buy U.S. stocks.”

There is no mystery as to why investors have been moving their money East: It’s Trump. In a typically arch note to clients this morning, UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan wrote: “China said it was not negotiating with the U.S. over trade. U.S. President Trump avowed that the U.S. was talking with someone (who they are talking to is a secret, apparently). Things like this might possibly be contributing to the economically damaging levels of uncertainty.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Albertsons tells suppliers to eat the cost of tariffs: ‘We are not accepting cost increases’

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  • Grocery chain Albertsons is taking a hard-line approach to tariffs, telling its suppliers it won’t accept any price hikes, according to a letter from the company’s head of merchandising. “We are not accepting cost increases,” the letter states, before spelling out a multipart approval process for suppliers hit by levies. 

One of America’s largest supermarket chains is telling suppliers they must eat cost hikes owing to increased tariffs.

Albertsons, which owns 2,200 grocery stores across the U.S., sent a letter to suppliers in late March spelling out how it would deal with price hikes. 

“With few exceptions, we are not accepting cost increases due to tariffs,” the letter read (emphasis in the original). 

“Suppliers are not permitted to include tariff-related costs in invoices without prior authorization by Albertsons Companies,” it further stated, adding, “Any invoices that include such charges without prior authorization will be subject to dispute and may result in payment delays.”

America’s second-largest grocer explained that this policy stemmed from its commitment “to maintaining the value propositions our customers expect.”

Instead, suppliers hit by tariffs will be forced to go through a multistep process to “request a cost change” for the goods they supply to Albertsons, starting with giving the company 90 days’ advance notice. They will need to fill out cost-change forms, offer “a detailed explanation of the tariff impact” and hand over supporting documents, such as tariff notices or import duty receipts.

Once all documents are submitted, the supplier will need to wait another 30 days for Albertsons to review. And even then, approval “is not guaranteed,” the letter said. 

Albertsons did not respond to a request for comment about the letter.

The missive highlights one of many tactics retailers are using to get around the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariffs on many imported items.

After President Donald Trump imposed surprise tariffs on China in late February, Walmart tried a similar pressure tactic with its Chinese suppliers, reportedly asking them for major price cuts, in some cases as much as 10%, according to Bloomberg. However, price cuts were a nonstarter for some suppliers, whose margins could be below 2%, the outlet reported, and Chinese officials soon launched their own pressure campaign on Walmart

Meanwhile, Amazon is also attempting to renegotiate some of its orders to keep prices low, CNBC reported. CEO Andy Jassy told the outlet that sellers on the platform would likely try to pass higher costs on to consumers, adding, “I understand why.”

Trump’s tariffs have roiled markets and sent consumer sentiment downward as shoppers broadly expect price hikes as a result of the highest taxes on foreign trade in nearly a century. 

But Albertsons’ reply, to detractors, is also a sign the chain is wielding its market power like a cudgel, forcing smaller suppliers to bend to its will.

With tariffs, “the cost of many items is going to spike, and suppliers will go out of business if they can’t cover those increased costs,” Matt Stoller, an anti-monopoly specialist and director of research at the American Economic Liberties Project, wrote Thursday, calling the Albertsons demand “absurd.”

David Dayen, the executive editor of progressive magazine The American Prospect, who first uncovered the letter, held it up as a sign that big companies could pass on price hikes freely while smaller competitors would suffer or even go out of business.

“Grocery suppliers whose sourcing or manufacturing is overseas have clearly incurred costs on its products, but hardball like this would mean they would have to compensate for losses with other retailers,” Dayen wrote

A similar dynamic took place during the supply-chain shortages prompted by the COVID pandemic, when large grocery chains took advantage of the disruption to hike prices and impose stricter requirements on suppliers, according to a Federal Trade Commission report.

Albertsons has thousands of locations, mostly in the Western U.S., and owns brands including Vons, Safeway, Acme, Shaw’s, and Randalls. It’s second in size only to Kroger. The two chains attempted a merger in 2022 that would have been the largest in industry history, but the $24.6 billion deal fell apart after multiple legal challenges.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Target Boycott: Inside the CEO’s meeting with Black leaders amid DEI protests

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