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Are sports prediction markets betting or investing? Two new Robinhood lawsuits could define how they are regulated going forward 

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We may be four years removed from the meme stock mania of 2020, but the line between investing and gambling has never been more blurred. This time around, the culprit isn’t stocks like GameStop or even crypto sh*tcoins like the beloved Fartcoin, but prediction markets. 

Those carefully tracking the presidential odds of the 2024 election might have thought that Polymarket and Kalshi would recede into the shadows after November, ready to emerge again in four years like a cash-crazed groundhog. And to some degree, they would have been right—app downloads have plummeted for both platforms. But as the offshore Polymarket plots its re-entry into the U.S. under (ahem) more favorable regulatory conditions, Kalshi is trying to rewrite regulations altogether. 

Sequoia-backed Kalshi triumphed in its first battle last fall when it won a court case against its regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that allowed the platform to offer political-based event contracts. Kalshi argued the instruments were no different than any other type of future. Traders are allowed to hedge against price swings in commodities like oil and wheat. Why not elections? 

After November, emboldened by its victory and in search of new markets, Kalshi took an even bolder step—it launched sports-based event contracts nationwide. Users could buy stakes in the outcome of NFL or NBA games, though Kalshi was sure to make clear that this wasn’t sports betting, which the CFTC prohibits and is left to the states. This was investing, Kalshi argued. 

Not everyone agreed. After expanding its burgeoning sports business through a partnership with Robinhood, the two platforms received cease-and-desist letters from the New Jersey and Nevada governments, who weren’t amused by the semantic argument. But last week, Robinhood fought back, suing both states to argue that users should have access to its sports contracts. 

The argument is a fascinating one (and, it should go without saying, steeped in language about “democratizing finance.”) The difference boils down to who sets the prices: users or the sportsbooks themselves. Kalshi operates like a traditional financial market, with the cost of contracts dictated by customers entering and exiting positions. Sportsbooks, in contrast, have their lines set by the “house,” and customers cannot exit their positions. In other words, sports-based contracts are no different than commodity futures and swaps, while sportsbooks are, well, gambling. 

Robinhood’s lawyers haven’t swayed everyone. On Wednesday, the day after Robinhood filed its lawsuits, the Wisconsin Ho-Chunk Nation fired off one of its own, seeking to block Robinhood from offering the product on its land. They argued that because of Robinhood and Kalshi’s new offering, 18-year-old high school students could place bets on their phones on the outcome of “virtually every sporting event occurring across the globe,” and without any regulatory input by states or Indian tribes. “Kalshi, no surprise, does not call its sports betting offerings sports gambling,” they added. 

The mounting legal showdown will shape and stretch the bounds of investing. Just look at the new partnership between the financial giant CME Group and the sports betting platform FanDuel, also announced last week, to offer their own event contracts. The financial regulatory approach of the Trump administration has been to endow Americans with the inalienable right to lose their money however they want, with little interference. But as Bloomberg detailed in a terrific piece last week, the CFTC—which is increasingly tasked with overseeing these new products—is in turmoil as Trump’s nominee (and Kalshi board member) is stuck in limbo. Sadly, there isn’t a betting market on whether he’ll be confirmed.

Leo Schwartz
X:
@leomschwartz
Email: leo.schwartz@fortune.com

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VENTURE DEALS

Group14 Technologies, a Woodinville, Wash.-based silicon battery materials company, raised $463 million in Series D funding. SK led the round and was joined by existing investors Porsche Investments, ATL, OMERS, Decarbonization Partners, Lightrock Climate Impact Fund, Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund, and others.

Wisdom, a New York City-based dental revenue cycle management platform, raised $21 million in Series A funding. Permanent Capital Ventures led the round and was joined by Aquiline and Juxtapose.

Pintarnya, a Jakarta, Indonesia-based jobs platform, raised $16.7 million in Series A funding. Square Peg led the round and was joined by existing investors Vertex Ventures Southeast Asia & India and East Ventures.

Molecular You, a Vancouver, B.C.-based molecular medicine and preventative health company, raised $5 million in Series A funding. Voloridge Health led the round and was joined by Dynamic Leap and others.

PRIVATE EQUITY

General Atlantic led a $115 million investment in Starian, a Florianopolis, Brazil-based software provider for the private sector.

IPOS

Netskope, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based cloud security company, filed to go public on the Nasdaq. The company posted $616 million in sales for the year ended July 31, 2025. Lightspeed Venture Partners, ICONIQ, and Accel back the company.

LB Pharmaceuticals, a New York City-based therapeutics developer for neuropsychiatric diseases, filed to go public on the Nasdaq. Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Vida Ventures, Pontifax, and TCG back the company.

Pattern Group, a Lehi, Utah-based online reseller, filed to go public on the Nasdaq. The company posted $2.1 billion in sales for the year ended June 30, 2025. David Wright, Melanie Adler, Banner Capital, and KL Pattern Holdings back the company.

WaterBridge Infrastructure, a Houston, Texas-based water services and infrastructure company, filed to go public on the NYSE and NYSE Texas. The company posted $735 million in sales for the year ended June 30, 2025. 

This is the web version of Term Sheet, a daily newsletter on the biggest deals and dealmakers in venture capital and private equity. Sign up for free.



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Amazon robotaxi service Zoox to charge for rides in 2026, with ‘laser-focus’ on transporting people, not deliveries, says cofounder

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Amazon’s self-driving robotaxi subsidiary, Zoox, expects to start charging passengers for rides in Las Vegas in early 2026, with paid rides in the San Francisco Bay Area coming later next year, a company executive said Monday.

The move, which would represent a key milestone for Zoox as it seeks to catch up with Alphabet’s Waymo, depends on obtaining federal regulatory and state approvals, Zoox Co-founder and chief technology officer Jesse Levinson told the audience at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI event in San Francisco on Monday.

And while robotaxi rival Waymo recently partnered with DoorDash to test food deliveries with driverless cars, Levinson said that Zoox is “laser focused” on moving people around cities, an addressable market he sees as being “just profoundly huge.” That directive has come “all the way from the very top” at Amazon, he added, despite the retailer’s significant interest in driverless package delivery.

“It’s harder to move people around than packages in terms of what you have to do with your vehicle,” Levinson said. On the other hand, automating package delivery is rife with its own challenge because the boxes have to get in and out of the vehicle, which isn’t as straightforward as people who can move themselves, he added.

Zoox crossed the 1 million mile technical threshold for autonomous rides just last week, Levinson said. The company’s distinct, carriage-seated vehicles, which have no steering wheels or manual controls, currently provide rides to passengers free of charge in portions of Las Vegas and Zoox is slowly opening up the waitlist to use the service in San Francisco.

Despite the progress and the plans to start charging fares, Zoox won’t generate revenues that are meaningful to Amazon, its $2.4 trillion parent company, for at least several more years, Levinson said. 

“This is pretty expensive,” said Levinson. “Over the next few years, it will start to be a really interesting business because the revenue you can generate from the robotaxi is quite a bit more than the expense to run robotaxi.”

That’s the point at which the business will become more “financially interesting,” he added.

Building cars without human drivers in mind

While creating a driverless robotaxi service comes with various challenge, Levinson believes it will ultimately be a key method for moving people around dense urban areas.

“Our view is that people aren’t doing this, not because it’s not a good idea, but because it’s just really hard,” said Levinson. “It takes a lot of time, it’s very cross functional, and it’s expensive. But I do think over time this is going to be a much more popular way of human transportation”

One of the gaps between a driverless robotaxi service like Zoox and Waymo, said Levinson, is in the way the cars are built. Rather than retrofitted vehicles that were manufactured with a human driver in mind, Zoox cars were built to be driverless. Levinson said the four-passenger cabins have carriage seating, active suspension, individual screens for each seat, and four-zone climate control. 

“The cars that have been designed over the last 100 years are for humans,” Levinson said. “All the choices, their shape, their architecture, what components they have in them—they were all designed for human drivers.” Levinson said Zoox offers a more cushy, social rider experience that he thinks will be a differentiator among competitors like Waymo and potentially Tesla’s robotaxi fleet. 

Another competitive element for Zoox is its battery, said Levinson. The bigger battery is more environmentally and economically friendly because it requires less charging.

“The economic opportunity and the opportunity for customers [as we] create this whole new category of transportation is actually much more exciting and even more financially compelling than simply taking something they do today and saving a bit of money,” he said.



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What’s the top concern among billionaires? Not a financial crash or debt crisis. It’s tariffs

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Money can’t buy you love, but surely billions of dollars ought to be enough to insulate you from global uncertainty and provide some peace of mind, right? Maybe not.

According to the latest UBS Billionaire Ambitions Report, which surveyed superrich clients around the world, only 1% said, “I am not worried about any economic, market, or policy factors negatively impacting the market environment over the next 12 months.”

Meanwhile, the most widely cited concern by billionaires was tariffs, with 66% saying it will most likely harm market conditions over the coming year. Close behind was “major geopolitical conflict” at 63% and policy uncertainty at 59%.

And while Wall Street is worried about soaring U.S. debt, other sovereign borrowers, and AI hyperscalers issuing more bonds, a comparatively low 34% of billionaires flagged a debt crisis as the biggest thing keeping them up at night.

Other risks that are top-of-mind elsewhere but were lower on the list for billionaires were global recession (27%), a financial market crisis (16%), and climate change (14%).

To be sure, UBS pointed out there are regional differences in what billionaires are worried about. For example, 75% of billionaires in the Asia-Pacific region cited tariffs, compared with 70% in the Americas citing higher inflation or major geopolitical conflict.

That’s as President Donald Trump’s trade war has hit China and Southeast Asia with steep duties, while Japan and South Korea face lower but still historically high tariffs.

On the other end of the trade war, importers in the U.S. are passing along some tariff costs to American consumers, who are increasingly anxious about high prices and affordability.

In fact, Trump’s tariffs may actually cool inflation for the rest of the global economy while keeping price pressures sticky at home.

The president and the White House insist costs are lower, but the consumer price index has seen its annual rate accelerate steadily since Trump’s “Liberation Day” shocker in April.

Of course, billionaires are not as bound by international borders as most, making any regional differences among them more fluid.

The UBS report found 36% have relocated at least once, with another 9% saying they are considering it. The top reasons given were seeking a better quality of life (36%), geopolitical concerns (36%), and the ability to organize tax affairs more efficiently (35%).



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The U.S. has over 900 billionaires and their wealth soared by 18% to $6.9 trillion this year: UBS

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The United States remains the clear leader in global wealth creation, with its billionaire population expanding and their combined fortunes soaring over the past year, according to UBS Global Wealth Management’s Billionaire Ambitions Report for 2025. It reveals that U.S. billionaires’ wealth increased by almost a fifth (18% year on year) to a staggering $6.9 trillion in 2025.

This massive surge helped lift the global billionaire population to 2,919 individuals, holding a total record wealth of $15.8 trillion. The U.S. now hosts 924 billionaires, representing nearly a third (31.7%) of the global billionaire population. The growth in the Americas region, which was led by the U.S., saw overall billionaire wealth climb 15.5% to $7.5 trillion.

The dramatic increase in U.S. wealth was largely driven by an exceptional year for innovation and rising financial asset prices, the Swiss bank concluded. The United States welcomed 109 fresh entrants to the billionaire ranks, vastly outnumbering the 18 who dropped below the threshold or passed away. The growth was heavily buoyed by self-made success, as 87 new U.S. residents became self-made billionaires, contributing $171.9 billion to the Americas’ total new wealth.

The technology sector played a crucial role in this growth, UBS added, with tech billionaires globally seeing their assets increase by 23.8% to $3 trillion. This surge in tech wealth is closely linked to the appreciating values of companies driving the artificial intelligence revolution, such as Nvidia, Oracle, and Meta.

Six U.S. tech billionaires alone saw their wealth increase by a combined $171 billion compared with the previous year. This wave of entrepreneurship means that 2025 recorded the second-highest number of self-made individuals becoming billionaires in the history of the report, behind the remarkable year for markets that was 2021, demonstrating widespread business creation across diverse sectors.

That year, 360 self-made billionaires accounted for $782 billion, an “exceptional rise [that] resulted from asset price appreciation in a period of ample financial liquidity following the COVID-19 pandemic.” The result in 2025 was more down to “widespread business creation,” UBS added. The report found the number of new billionaires minted annually increased roughly eightfold from 35 in 2022 to 287 in 2025, while their assets have grown by roughly ninefold, from $74.6 billion to $684.3 billion.

The coming transfer of wealth

While U.S. entrepreneurs are busy creating new wealth, the long-anticipated “great wealth transfer” is accelerating. Globally, at least $5.9 trillion is expected to be inherited by billionaire children over the next 15 years. Of that amount, at least $2.8 trillion will pass to U.S. heirs over this period. This calculation is likely conservative as it does not factor in future appreciation of asset values.

The report highlights that families are becoming increasingly international as the wealth transfer intensifies, yet the inheritance itself is set to be concentrated in a small number of markets, with the U.S. leading the way.

Female billionaires made notable progress in 2025, according to the report. While there are only 374 female billionaires globally, compared with 2,545 male, their average wealth grew by 8.4% to $5.2 billion in 2025, more than twice the 3.2% average growth rate for men. This is part of a trend, with the average wealth of female billionaires rising at a faster rate for each of the four years since 2022. In part, this is driven by inheritance, with more women becoming billionaires through inheritance than any other way in 2025. Of the 43 women who became billionaires in the year, UBS found that 27 inherited while 16 were self-made.

Despite the vast sums set for inheritance, surveyed billionaires expressed a strong desire for their children to achieve success independently. More than eight in 10 (82%) of those surveyed hope their children will develop the necessary skills and values to succeed without relying solely on the inherited fortune. Over half (55%) also want their heirs to use their wealth to make a positive impact on the world.

Furthermore, billionaires are highly mobile, with 36% of those surveyed having relocated at least once, and a further 9% considering a move. The top three reasons for relocation are linked to better quality of life (36%), geopolitical concerns (36%), and organizing tax affairs more efficiently (35%). This high level of mobility could potentially alter the geographic picture of where wealth is ultimately transferred.

The report was generated in part through an online survey of 87 billionaire clients as well as in-depth interviews which took place over several weeks in September and October.



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