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Are sports prediction markets betting or investing? Two new Robinhood lawsuits could define how they are regulated going forward 

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We may be four years removed from the meme stock mania of 2020, but the line between investing and gambling has never been more blurred. This time around, the culprit isn’t stocks like GameStop or even crypto sh*tcoins like the beloved Fartcoin, but prediction markets. 

Those carefully tracking the presidential odds of the 2024 election might have thought that Polymarket and Kalshi would recede into the shadows after November, ready to emerge again in four years like a cash-crazed groundhog. And to some degree, they would have been right—app downloads have plummeted for both platforms. But as the offshore Polymarket plots its re-entry into the U.S. under (ahem) more favorable regulatory conditions, Kalshi is trying to rewrite regulations altogether. 

Sequoia-backed Kalshi triumphed in its first battle last fall when it won a court case against its regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that allowed the platform to offer political-based event contracts. Kalshi argued the instruments were no different than any other type of future. Traders are allowed to hedge against price swings in commodities like oil and wheat. Why not elections? 

After November, emboldened by its victory and in search of new markets, Kalshi took an even bolder step—it launched sports-based event contracts nationwide. Users could buy stakes in the outcome of NFL or NBA games, though Kalshi was sure to make clear that this wasn’t sports betting, which the CFTC prohibits and is left to the states. This was investing, Kalshi argued. 

Not everyone agreed. After expanding its burgeoning sports business through a partnership with Robinhood, the two platforms received cease-and-desist letters from the New Jersey and Nevada governments, who weren’t amused by the semantic argument. But last week, Robinhood fought back, suing both states to argue that users should have access to its sports contracts. 

The argument is a fascinating one (and, it should go without saying, steeped in language about “democratizing finance.”) The difference boils down to who sets the prices: users or the sportsbooks themselves. Kalshi operates like a traditional financial market, with the cost of contracts dictated by customers entering and exiting positions. Sportsbooks, in contrast, have their lines set by the “house,” and customers cannot exit their positions. In other words, sports-based contracts are no different than commodity futures and swaps, while sportsbooks are, well, gambling. 

Robinhood’s lawyers haven’t swayed everyone. On Wednesday, the day after Robinhood filed its lawsuits, the Wisconsin Ho-Chunk Nation fired off one of its own, seeking to block Robinhood from offering the product on its land. They argued that because of Robinhood and Kalshi’s new offering, 18-year-old high school students could place bets on their phones on the outcome of “virtually every sporting event occurring across the globe,” and without any regulatory input by states or Indian tribes. “Kalshi, no surprise, does not call its sports betting offerings sports gambling,” they added. 

The mounting legal showdown will shape and stretch the bounds of investing. Just look at the new partnership between the financial giant CME Group and the sports betting platform FanDuel, also announced last week, to offer their own event contracts. The financial regulatory approach of the Trump administration has been to endow Americans with the inalienable right to lose their money however they want, with little interference. But as Bloomberg detailed in a terrific piece last week, the CFTC—which is increasingly tasked with overseeing these new products—is in turmoil as Trump’s nominee (and Kalshi board member) is stuck in limbo. Sadly, there isn’t a betting market on whether he’ll be confirmed.

Leo Schwartz
X:
@leomschwartz
Email: leo.schwartz@fortune.com

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VENTURE DEALS

Group14 Technologies, a Woodinville, Wash.-based silicon battery materials company, raised $463 million in Series D funding. SK led the round and was joined by existing investors Porsche Investments, ATL, OMERS, Decarbonization Partners, Lightrock Climate Impact Fund, Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund, and others.

Wisdom, a New York City-based dental revenue cycle management platform, raised $21 million in Series A funding. Permanent Capital Ventures led the round and was joined by Aquiline and Juxtapose.

Pintarnya, a Jakarta, Indonesia-based jobs platform, raised $16.7 million in Series A funding. Square Peg led the round and was joined by existing investors Vertex Ventures Southeast Asia & India and East Ventures.

Molecular You, a Vancouver, B.C.-based molecular medicine and preventative health company, raised $5 million in Series A funding. Voloridge Health led the round and was joined by Dynamic Leap and others.

PRIVATE EQUITY

General Atlantic led a $115 million investment in Starian, a Florianopolis, Brazil-based software provider for the private sector.

IPOS

Netskope, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based cloud security company, filed to go public on the Nasdaq. The company posted $616 million in sales for the year ended July 31, 2025. Lightspeed Venture Partners, ICONIQ, and Accel back the company.

LB Pharmaceuticals, a New York City-based therapeutics developer for neuropsychiatric diseases, filed to go public on the Nasdaq. Deep Track Biotechnology Master Fund, Vida Ventures, Pontifax, and TCG back the company.

Pattern Group, a Lehi, Utah-based online reseller, filed to go public on the Nasdaq. The company posted $2.1 billion in sales for the year ended June 30, 2025. David Wright, Melanie Adler, Banner Capital, and KL Pattern Holdings back the company.

WaterBridge Infrastructure, a Houston, Texas-based water services and infrastructure company, filed to go public on the NYSE and NYSE Texas. The company posted $735 million in sales for the year ended June 30, 2025. 

This is the web version of Term Sheet, a daily newsletter on the biggest deals and dealmakers in venture capital and private equity. Sign up for free.



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Kushner suddenly enters the Paramount–Netflix fight with Saudi billions and a fresh mega-deal

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Jared Kushner has quietly reemerged as a player in one of the biggest takeover fights in modern Hollywood. Paramount’s audacious, all-cash $108 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, announced Monday, names Kushner’s fully owned private equity firm, Affinity Partners, as one of four outside financing partners backing the offer, alongside the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar.

Axios first reported the involvement of Saudi and Gulf investment.

The detail is buried in Paramount’s tender offer, with Paramount listing “the Public Investment Fund (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia), L’imad Holding Company PJSC (Abu Dhabi), Qatar Investment Authority (Qatar) and Affinity Partners (Jared Kushner)” as investors who would, under a successful deal scenario, hold non-voting equity and forgo governance rights, including board seats. 

The filing also states that because these investors are structured without such rights, “the Transaction will not be within CFIUS’s jurisdiction,” referring to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. Reports have suggested that WBD’s board opted for Netflix’s deal as it lacked any foreign financing components and therefore faced no issues with CFIUS, a notably opaque and powerful antitrust tool that the government can employ to block controversial mergers.

Both Paramount and Netflix are likely to increase their offers. David Ellison said on CNBC that he told the CEO of Warner Bro’s, David Zaslav, that $30 per share wasn’t the company’s best and final offer.

Kushner’s Middle Eastern ties

Kushner’s inclusion reflects a broader fact pattern: since leaving government, his firm has raised several billion dollars from Gulf investors and has participated in large private transactions involving capital from the same region. In September, his firm joined Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund in the $55 billion agreement to take Electronic Arts private, the largest private-equity buyout in history. 

WSJ reporting shows Kushner helped connect Silver Lake with PIF leadership earlier in the year as discussions around an EA buyout accelerated. Affinity Partners ultimately took a roughly 5% stake in the transaction, alongside Silver Lake and PIF, which financed the majority of the equity. The EA deal marked the first time Kushner’s fund appeared in a major global technology buyout of that scale, and it involved the same Gulf investors who now appear in Paramount’s financing package.

Kushner has also remained active in Middle East political diplomacy, not just financial. He played a meaningful role in the administration’s recent Israel-Gaza peace effort, brought in because of his involvement in negotiating the Abraham Accords during Trump’s first term, which established diplomatic ties between Israel and several Gulf states including Saudi Arabia. The Gulf state is increasingly opening up, especially with regard to western businesses, as highlighted by Barclays’ confirmation in late October at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh that it was relocating its regional headquarters there. Separately at the Fortune Global Forum, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid A. Al-Falih described the breakthroughs occurring under Vision 2030, the kingdom’s economic transformation plan that is roughly nine years old. He said he saw 2025 as a “pivotal moment,” when “the very foundations of global business are being shaken, in a way, and being rewritten before our own eyes.”

The deal took on new political dimensions over the weekend, with President Donald Trump publicly weighing in on Netflix’s agreement to acquire WBD’s studio and streaming assets. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Trump said the Netflix–WBD deal “could be a problem” because of the combined businesses’ market share, and noted that he expects to be involved in the review process. He also confirmed meeting with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos in the Oval Office shortly before the deal was announced by Netflix, saying Sarandos had made “no guarantees” about the transaction. 

Trump did not confirm the scoop by Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw, who wrote in his influential entertainment newsletter that Sarandos has been wooing Trump since late November, when he visited Mar-A-Lago. Trump did indicate, however, that he has a good relationship with the Netflix leader, calling Sarandos a “fantastic man” who had played a major role in building Netflix into such a great company. Netflix executives expressed great confidence in regulatory approval on Friday’s call with analysts about their deal, worth $72 billion in equity and about $83 billion including the assumption of debt.

The political plot thickens

The political overtones of the wrangling here are at least worth noting. Paramount was recently acquired by David Ellison, son of longtime Republican donor Larry Ellison, who Trump named as one of several U.S. billionaires to take control of the U.S. assets of TikTok. (Bloomberg’s Shaw reported that Sarandos was interested in the Paramount studio before Ellison acquired it.) Meanwhile, Sarandos is married to Nicole Avant, who was ambassador to the Bahamas during the Obama administration. Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings is a prominent and longtime Democratic donor, although Hastings is now non-executive chairman at Netflix and has been focused on his Powder Mountain resort in Utah, acquired shortly after Fortune’s profile of the resort in 2023.

Paramount explicitly argued that its own proposal carries fewer regulatory risks than Netflix’s. In its filing, the company contends that the Netflix agreement faces significant antitrust hurdles, including a long potential review timeline. Paramount also emphasizes that its outside financing—because it is non-voting—does not trigger CFIUS review, eliminating one additional hurdle of national-security scrutiny.

Trump’s posture toward Paramount, however, has been mixed. Roughly 20 minutes after Paramount launched its hostile offer, Trump explicitly criticized Paramount management over a 60 Minutes segment featuring Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, writing on Truth Social that it was “NO BETTER THAN THE OLD OWNERSHIP.” Trump added that “since they [Paramount] bought it, 60 Minutes has actually gotten WORSE!” CBS News and 60 Minutes, as is customary with news organizations, maintain that they have editorial independence from their ownership. Paramount settled a lawsuit brought by Trump over a certain 60 Minutes episode during the 2024 election, paying $16 million in July 2025, shortly before Ellison’s takeover won regulator approval.

Separately on Monday, Larry Ellisontold CNBC that he has had “great conversations” with Trump about the WBD bid, without elaborating. 

Nidhi Hegde, executive director of the American Economic Liberties Project, wrote on X in response to Ellison’s remarks that “the correct option is neither Paramount nor Netflix buy Warner.”

“The president inserting himself in the deal is obviously problematic, regardless of the parties involved,” said Hegde. 

[Disclosure: one of the author’s worked at Netflix from June 2024 through July 2025.]



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Baby boomers have ‘gobbled up’ the wealth share, leaving Gen Z to wait for Great Wealth Transfer

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Older Americans may be trading in hustling for retirement, but that hasn’t stopped them from getting richer.

Baby boomers now hold a record high of the United States’ wealth, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok noted in a Sunday blog post, citing Federal Reserve data. Compared to 1989, when those over 70 years old held 19% of the wealth in the household sector, older Americans now own 31% of the wealth.

That chunk of change is an outsized share compared to other generations. Baby boomers, who make up about 20% of the U.S. population, hold more than $85 trillion in assets, according to Fed data. By comparison, millennials, who make up about the same percentage of Americans, hold just about $18 trillion, roughly one-fifth that of baby boomers. 

Older Americans’ financial success is in especially stark comparison to that of Gen Z, a generation with deep skepticism about the economic future, who feel shut out from entry-level jobs amid the rise of AI, with many sinking into credit card debt as they struggle to repay student loans. As of last year, the young generation had only $6 trillion in wealth, despite making up the same percentage of the population as their baby boomer and millennial counterparts.

“The baby [boomer] generation has really gobbled up a huge share of household wealth, so it’s left a lot less for other age cohorts,” Edward Wolff, professor of economics at New York University, told Fortune.

Baby boomers’ good timing

America’s septuagenarians were raised by parents who came of age during the Great Depression and learned the hard way the lessons of frugality and the importance of saving money. But the baby boomer generation owes a great deal of their financial security to the stars aligning during their formative years.

In the 1970s when many baby boomers entered the housing market, inflation surged, making buying a home an appealing investment. As home values soared in the following decades, so, too, did the generation’s equity. The older generation has also been boosted by stock ownership, with baby boomers holding 54% of stocks worth more than $25 trillion, according to an early 2025 analysis of Fed data by The Motley Fool. Millennials owned about 8% of stocks worth $3.9 trillion.

But Gen Z, who may be following baby boomers’ lead in stock market investments, have not shared the same good fortune in the housing market. Housing supply has been low since the 2008 recession, exacerbated by sky-high mortgage rates, which disincentivized home sales and contributed to exorbitant home prices.

As a result, 2025 saw a 21% drop in the share of first-time homebuyers, and the age of those buyers reached a record high of 40 years, according to November data from the National Association of Realtors, leaving Gen Z to wait a little longer for the keys to their first homes. A March Redfin report found today, just 33% of 27-year-olds own their homes compared to 40% of baby boomers who owned their homes when they were the same age.

“They weren’t able to enjoy the big appreciation of house prices to the same extent as baby boomers,” Wolff said.

Gen Z’s silver lining

Gen Z may be facing generation-defining economic challenges, but there’s hope for them yet. Pew Research Center data from 2024 indicates Gen Z may actually be in better financial shape than young people in past generations: In 2023, Zoomers made a median pay of about $20,000, adjusted for inflation. In 1993, 18-to-24-year-olds made about $15,000. Income growth finally outpacing home price growth may also be a silver lining for prospective home buyers.

But part of the equation of Gen Z’s relatively paltry share of wealth is simply because they haven’t had as much time to acquire it, Michael Walden, professor emeritus of economics at North Carolina State University, told Fortune.

“It makes logical sense that older people will accumulate greater percentages of wealth at any point in time because they’ve had more years to invest and reap the returns of their investments,” Walden said.

Beyond just more time, Gen Z will indirectly benefit from the investments made by their parents and grandparents as they await the Great Wealth Transfer that promises to distribute, by some estimations, $124 trillion in inheritance to the younger generations. Just this year, 91 heirs inherited a record $297.8 billion, according to the UBS Billionaire Ambitions Report, a 36% increase from last year.

Walden said the Great Wealth Transfer is coming, but Gen Z and millennials shouldn’t rely on the death of a loved one to begin their wealth acquisition journey in earnest.

“It’s hard to target when that’s going to come, so I would argue to any young person that I would be talking to, have a plan, be consistent with the plan,” he said.



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Paramount, Netflix spur Wall Street race to win jumbo loan deals

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In the space of less than a week, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. has unleashed two multi-billion debt deals that rank among the largest in the past decade.

The latest came from Paramount Skydance Corp. as it lined up as much as $54 billion of financing from Wall Street’s biggest firms to help support its $108 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros., just days after the company agreed to a deal with Netflix Inc.

Loans of this size have been few and far between over the past couple of years amid subdued acquisition activity. But that’s all changed recently amid a frenzy to fund data-center build outs in the race for artificial intelligence expansion, as well as a pick up in M&A.

Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. are providing the debt commitment to Paramount, according to a statement Monday. Each one of the trio has signed up for about $18 billion, or a third, of the total commitment, according to a filing.

Just late last week, Netflix lined up $59 billion of unsecured financing from Wells Fargo & Co., BNP Paribas SA and HSBC Plc in another bridge loan for its own bid for part of Warner Bros. Such bridge loans, a type of facility that’s usually replaced with permanent financing like bonds, are a crucial step for banks in building relationships with companies to win higher-paying mandates down the road.

Paramount’s bid at $30 a share in cash comes after Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. for $27.75 in cash and stock in a $72 billion deal. Paramount’s bid is for the entirety of Warner Bros., while Netflix is only interested in the Hollywood studios and streaming business. Paramount — which is backed by Larry Ellison, one of the world’s richest people — said its offer gives shareholders $18 billion more in cash than the Netflix bid would.

The Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners are backstopping the $40.7 billion equity financing for the Paramount bid. Affinity Partners, the private equity firm founded by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding Company PJSC and the Qatar Investment Authority are also financing partners. China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd., which had originally been listed as providing a $1 billion commitment, is no longer involved as a financing partner, according to the filing.

Ratings Game

While sizable, the financings for Netflix and Paramount don’t quite match the $75 billion of loans Anheuser-Busch InBev SA obtained to back its acquisition of SABMiller Plc in 2015, which amounted to the largest ever bridge loan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even so, Wall Street is looking to earn lucrative fees tied to a long-awaited revival in acquisitions. One or a small group of banks typically provide the initial bridge loan, and then bring in other banks to spread the risk once the acquisition is publicly announced. After a time, those loans are replaced with bonds sold to institutional investors.

One key difference with Paramount’s bridge loan is that it will be secured by the company’s assets. Netflix’s bridge is unsecured, meaning it’s not backed by specific collateral. That’s likely due to the different credit ratings each company has. 

Netflix, which is rated investment grade, is expected to replace its bridge loan with up to $25 billion of bonds, plus $20 billion of delayed-draw term loans and a $5 billion revolving credit facility, both of which are typically held by banks. Paramount has lower credit scores of a BB+ rating by S&P Global Ratings, which is one level below investment grade, and BBB- by Fitch Ratings, or on the cusp of junk.

The high-grade market typically has a deeper pool of investors and offers cheaper financing, and would be more easily able to absorb a large financing of this size.



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