Angie Nixon is shaping up to be the Jay Collins of statewide Democratic aspirations.

The progressive Democratic state Representative is still mulling a U.S. Senate bid to challenge appointed incumbent Ashley Moody. Nixon gave an update over the weekend at an “Awake the State” listening tour stop in downtown St. Petersburg, according to the Florida Phoenix.

“We have to make sure that we elect people who care more about working families than they care about padding their pockets. As I’ve been traveling the state, and talking to people and listening to folks, we need fighters who are willing to be on the frontlines. And that’s why I’m excited to let you know that I am really strongly considering running for the United State Senate,” she reportedly told the gathering.

Nixon has been considering a bid for much of 2025, telling Florida Politics in September that she was launching her “Awake the State” listening tour and considering a bid because “change can’t wait, and neither can we.” And A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics reported that at least as far back as July, one state Senator had been asked to endorse her for the race, while a Democratic political consultant said Nixon would be announcing her race soon.

Nixon established her exploratory committee, Angie for America, on Aug. 6.

Nixon has also said that while she is strongly considering a bid for U.S. Senate, she has not ruled out instead running in 2027 for a seat on the Jacksonville City Council, where she lives.

But one thing is certain, she’s not seeking re-election to her current Florida House seat, which she announced on social media in October. She later gave little reason for her decision to leave the chamber early — she doesn’t reach term limits until 2028 — telling the Florida Phoenix at the time simply that it was time to move on.

Who could blame her? From her position facing a GOP supermajority, there’s little governance Nixon and her Democratic colleagues can accomplish as Republicans have a grip on control to push their conservative agenda.

But it’s also not surprising that Nixon has failed to make a decision as 2025 winds down and 2026 quickly approaches.

As of Nov. 30, Republicans in Florida outnumbered Democrats by more than 1.4 million voters, an advantage that has slowly been on the rise since Republicans first overtook Democrats in the early 2020s. The current advantage is a more than 7-percentage-point lead, according to the most recent L2 voter data.

Citywide in Jacksonville — it’s not clear exactly which district Nixon would seek if she ran for the City Council. Democrats have a more than 2-percentage-point voter registration advantage, making a race there a far more competitive prospect.

Compounding Nixon’s Senate hopes, and likely fueling her delay in making a decision, is a difficult, if not nonexistent, path to victory statewide.

There’s already one Democrat in the race: former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins. A late October poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab gave Moody an 11-point advantage over Jenkins, at 49% support to just 38%.

While it’s possible Nixon could perform better, double-digit support is a difficult deficit to overcome, especially considering Moody’s high profile as the incumbent and someone who was twice elected statewide to Florida Attorney General, the post she held before her appointment to the U.S. Senate.

A poll in early October, from Plymouth Union Public Advocacy, gave Moody a 7-percentage-point advantage over Jenkins.

But Nixon and her exploratory team likely see some glimmers of hope. The Plymouth poll found broad support for Enhanced Premium Tax Credits under the Affordable Care Act, which are set to expire next year. Republicans in Congress are currently grappling with how to ensure health care premiums don’t spike for those insured under former President Barack Obama’s signature health care law.

The tax credits were at the center of the October government shutdown — the longest in history — as Democrats held the line for weeks demanding an extension. Ultimately, enough Democrats voted with Republicans to reopen the government without an extension, but the debate is still raging as the deadline nears before credits expire.

The Plymouth poll found 73% of all Florida voters want an extension, including 60% of Republican voters, with 53% of voters polled indicating they would be less likely to support Moody if she allowed the credits to expire.

An AP-NORC poll last week found President Donald Trump remaining underwater and still at historic low approval, with just 36% of voters approving of his job performance compared to 61% who disapprove. Importantly, 74% of independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and even 18% of voters from his own party disapprove.

The poll showed even worse numbers on Trump’s handling of the economy, an issue that is expected to drive outcomes in next year’s Midterm Elections, when Nixon would be on the ballot should she decide to run for U.S. Senate. There, only 31% of voters approve of Trump’s work. Among Republicans, the share of those who support the President on the economy is still shockingly low, at just 69%.

A Gallup poll taken in November similarly shows Trump at historically low approval ratings, with GOP voter approval of the President dipping 7 points to just 84%. Support among independents in that poll sat at just 25%.

Given reliance on presidential support in voting patterns — the party in power in the White House typically suffers at the ballot in Midterms — Trump’s low approval rating could ding candidates from his party across the nation, including Moody.

Still, the Cook Political Report, as of February, lists Moody’s Senate seat as “Solid R,” meaning the race is “not considered competitive.”

Nixon followed up her weekend stop in St. Pete with another Monday night in Tampa. She doesn’t have any new stops publicly posted on any of her social media channels.