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Amid a grimmer outlook from the Fed, there’s a lone, mysterious holdout predicting stronger economic growth

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  • Across the board, Federal Reserve officials’ forecasts for the U.S. economy worsened in its latest report summarizing their expectations. They expected growth to slow and inflation to rise save for one official, who expected GDP growth would incline between 2.4% and 2.5%. 

The Federal Reserve has an optimist in its midst. 

When the central bank released its latest round of economic projections on Wednesday, one Fed official had a decidedly more positive outlook for U.S. growth compared to their colleagues. 

The unnamed official was an outlier among the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee, projecting U.S. GDP growth of between 2.4% to 2.5% over the next two years. No other committee member expected it to even reach 2%.

The report, officially known as the Summary of Economic Projections, but colloquially referred to as the “dot plot,” is a quarterly roundup of what Federal Reserve officials expect from the U.S. economy over the next several years. Investors and economists carefully monitor the dot plots when they’re released to assess any changes to the Fed’s outlook on the economy. 

The most recent dot plot saw consensus forecasts among the Fed’s leadership fall compared to those from its previous version in December. In that report, 13 committee members had expected more than 2% GDP growth from 2025 to 2027. Six expected growth between 2% and 2.1%, and another six expected it to be a tick higher at 2.2% to 2.3%. One official back in December also expected 2.5%. 

Because the dot plot is anonymous it’s not possible to say whether the same committee member from December had the same positive outlook this time around. 

In general, expectations moved in a relatively bleak direction. Growth forecasts fell, while inflation and unemployment projections rose. “Officials saw a clear shift in risks towards weaker growth and higher inflation as well,” Deutsche Bank wrote in an analyst note after the Fed’s meeting. 

The Fed’s median forecast for GDP growth dropped from from 2.1% to 1.7%, according to the March dot plot. When addressing that change, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell termed it a “meaningful decline in growth,” during a press conference Wednesday. 

Though Powell reiterated—as he has throughout the year—that the economy remains on solid footing overall. The declines in growth projections were mostly due to high levels of uncertainty, he added. 

Most of that uncertainty stems from two policy proposals from President Donald Trump: his on-again, off-again tariff policy, and his pledge to enact a hardline immigration policy. Both policies could hurt the economy by igniting a trade war and reducing the labor supply, respectively. So far, the Trump Administration has made dizzying moves on tariffs, a critical part of its unconventional trade policy. After implementing sweeping tariffs on China, the world’s second largest economy,Trump also instituted and then subsequently reversed tariffs on Mexico and Canada. A new round of tariffs is set to go into effect April 2, which has also done little to offer investors the clarity they seek. 

The lack of details about the nature of the tariff policies makes it difficult to assess their impact beyond the broad strokes. “There’s so many things we don’t know,” Powell said Wednesday. “But we kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down, they tend to bring inflation up in the first instance.”

Forecasts from investors also matched the Fed’s consensus—but not that of its lone optimist.

“We have lowered our 2025 GDP forecast given a surge in policy uncertainty and have raised our core inflation forecast amid upward pressure on goods prices and anticipated impacts from tariffs,” Vanguard wrote to investors in an email Thursday morning. 

The broad uncertainty about what policies would be implemented and how they would impact the economy has been one of the deciding factors in the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate cuts so far this year. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank was in no rush to change interest rates. He said the economy was on solid enough footing that the Fed could afford to wait for more clarity about the White House’s future policies. 

That reality is shifting the balance of power within the government. 

“We are facing a regime change from a monetary policy-dominant world to a fiscal policy dominant one,” wrote William Blair equity researcher Richard De Chazal. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Heathrow says it’s fully operational after blackout shutdown

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London’s Heathrow airport said it’s open and fully operational following an unprecedented daylong blackout that brought travel to a standstill for hundreds of thousands of passengers at Europe’s busiest airport.

British Airways, the biggest single operator at the airport, said it expects to run about 85% of its schedule on Saturday. Power supplies have been restored to all customers connected to National Grid UK’s North Hyde substation, including Heathrow, allowing operations to resume at the airport, the utility company said in a post on X.

“We have hundreds of additional colleagues on hand in our terminals and we have added flights to today’s schedule to facilitate an extra 10,000 passengers traveling through the airport,” a Heathrow spokesperson said in an emailed statement on Saturday. 

Heathrow advised passengers traveling on Saturday to check with their airline for the latest information regarding their flights.

The reopening followed a day of mass chaos for travelers as hundreds of flights were diverted or canceled. The UK Metropolitan Police said earlier that its counter-terrorism command is leading a probe into the fire at a nearby power substation that led to the outage, though there’s no indication at this point of foul play. 

“We are deeply sorry for the disruption caused and are continuing to work closely with the Government, Heathrow and the police to understand the cause of the incident,” National Grid UK said. “We are now implementing measures to help further improve the resilience levels of our network.”

The closure forced more than 1,300 flights to be canceled or rerouted on Friday alone. Heathrow, home to British Airways, is a major hub for transatlantic travel, as well as connections to the Middle East and Asia. While nearby airports such as London Gatwick have accepted some diverted flights, others are being sent as far as Frankfurt.

“This incident will have a substantial impact on our airline and customers for many days to come, with disruption to journeys expected over the coming days,” said British Airways chief Sean Doyle. The airline said in a statement late Friday that its full Saturday schedule includes nearly 600 departures and arrivals and it hoped to operate as many of those flights as possible.

The financial fallout from the day-long disruption may reach reach between $80 million and $100 million, factoring in costs related to accommodation, food and transportation, as well as broader operational impacts that include rerouting, schedule disruptions and aircraft repositioning, said Ronan Murphy, director at Alton Aviation Consultancy

An outage of this scale is unprecedented for the airfield. About 677 flights will be affected at British Airways alone, according to ch-Aviation, which compiles industry data. That’s followed by 62 flights for Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. and 42 flights for Deutsche Lufthansa AG.  

IAG SA, the parent of British Airways, fell as much as 4.3% in London, bringing the decline this year to 5.5%. The shares almost doubled in 2024 as the company improved services and paid down debt.

The outage raises questions about the robustness of Heathrow’s infrastructure, and why an airport of such scale and importance lacked the redundancy systems needed to keep operations going. At the same time, an operation the size of Heathrow has considerable energy requirements, complicating the availability of a reserve source to meet its needs.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told LBC radio on Friday that the “catastrophic” fire had taken out a backup generator for Heathrow, as well as the electricity substation that serves it. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he’d been “receiving regular updates” and was in close contact with partners on the ground. 

The police said that “while there is currently no indication of foul play we retain an open mind at this time.” Assessments were under way to determine whether circumstances were suspicious, according to an official with knowledge of the matter. Police involvement will be peripheral unless there’s reason to mount an investigation, the person said.

Heathrow is currently making a pitch to add a third runway, a long-running ambition to expand traffic and remain competitive with global hubs like Dubai or Istanbul. Its recently realigned ownership now includes French private equity firm Ardian SAS, Qatar Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund as its top investors.

The airport closed at around 1:30 a.m. on Friday. The blaze erupted at an electrical substation in Hayes, north of Heathrow, just before midnight, causing a local power outage that cut service to thousands of nearby residents and local businesses, and caused some evacuations. 

By mid afternoon Friday, National Grid said it had restored the ability to resupply the parts of Heathrow connected to the damaged substation. 

Sue Thomas, who flew in to Heathrow Thursday evening from Canada to visit family in Penzance in Cornwall, said power went out at her Premier Inn hotel room near the airport at 10:30 p.m.

“Everything went black,” she said in an interview at Paddington Station on Friday where she waited for a train. “The power went out, the water wasn’t running, no one was allowed in or out.”

Staff at the hotel couldn’t even allocate rooms because everything is automated, the lifts weren’t working and the hotel corridors were in total darkness, she said.

Previous Closures

Heathrow, which is also home to Virgin Atlantic, handles some 1,400 flights and 200,000 passengers every day, and about 40 aircraft take off every hour at peak times on average.

Ryanair Holdings Plc, the Irish budget carrier, said it would add four flights on Friday and four on Saturday between its London Stansted hub and Dublin to accommodate stranded travelers. EasyJet Plc said it’s also putting larger aircraft on key routes to provide more seats. 

The last major crisis for Heathrow occurred in August 2023 when the UK’s airspace shut down because of a technical issue with the air traffic control system. The outage was fixed after a few hours but led to many flight delays and cancellations at Heathrow and other airports, creating chaos for passengers.

Hundreds of flights were canceled at Heathrow on July 10, 2006, after authorities in London uncovered a plot to detonate liquid explosives on transatlantic flights. Still, the airport remained open and flying resumed that evening.

On Friday, about 120 planes already en-route when the airport closed were diverting or sent back to their origin, including flights operated by Qantas Airways Ltd., Delta Air Lines Inc. and American Airlines, according to tracking service Flightradar24.

Carriers including Emirates, the world’s largest international airline with more than a dozen daily flights into Heathrow, said they’ve canceled some connections. “We’re monitoring the situation closely and will update our customers as the situation develops,” Emirates said. 

Virgin said that all incoming and outbound traffic has been canceled until 9:30 p.m., and that the rest of the schedule is under review. Some airlines began rerouting incoming traffic to other airports, including Abu Dhabi carrier Etihad Airways, which diverted a Heathrow-bound plane to Frankfurt. 

Gatwick Airport said its service is operating normally, and that it’s taken seven flights so far that were diverted from Heathrow.

Even once service resumes, there’ll be a significant ripple-on effect that may be felt for days, with aircraft and crew out of position. Airports sometimes experience disruptions because of weather or personnel strikes, though a full-day complete shutdown is extremely rare. 

In early 2023, Frankfurt airport — among the busiest in Europe — suffered serious disruptions following damage to broadband cables at a rail location in the northern part of the German city. UK airports have experienced outages in past years because of air-traffic control systems, though these were often just a matter of hours. 

This time, passengers are facing significant disruptions. Nick Stone, an investor from Los Angeles, was boarding a Eurostar train to Paris at St. Pancras Station in London on Friday morning. His canceled flight will cause him to miss his daughter’s 12th birthday, he said. 

Eurostar said it’s adding extra capacity, including one additional service from London to Paris and one from Paris to London to provide alternative travel options for stranded passengers.

Sabrina and Raik Becker, a German couple on holiday in London, were scheduled to head back to Hanover on a 1.5 hour flight from Heathrow on Friday. Instead, they’re now taking the Eurostar to Brussels and then onward to Cologne before getting to their destination, a journey that will take more than 12 hours and cost an extra €1,000 ($1,083).

They said they don’t know if they’ll get their money back.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Secret Biden deal allowed Chevron to pay Venezuela millions

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The Biden administration secretly permitted Chevron Corp. to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to the Venezuelan government despite a license that explicitly prohibited such disbursements, according to people familiar with the matter.

The supplement to a November 2022 sanctions waiver allowed Chevron to remain in compliance with US law while paying the regime of President Nicolás Maduro taxes and oil royalties, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public information. The initial waiver from the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control granted Chevron permission to conduct limited operations in the Latin American nation. 

The administration of President Donald Trump ended the arrangement and is requiring the Texas oil giant to wind down Venezuelan operations. 

“Chevron conducts its business globally in compliance with all laws and regulations, including any sanctions frameworks provided for by the U.S. government,” the company said in a statement. 

The US Treasury Department, which oversees sanction waivers, declined to comment.

The sanctions waiver known as a general license allowed Chevron to pump and export Venezuelan crude but expressly forbade the company from paying taxes, royalties or dividends to the Venezuelan government or any state-controlled entities.

However, an undisclosed supplement to the waiver permitted Chevron to make certain payments essential to business operations, some of the people said. 

Last year, Chevron filed documents with Venezuelan authorities showing about $300 million in accrued taxes in the nation, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News. At the time, US Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, condemned the arrangement and advocated withdrawing Chevron’s waiver.  

Read More: Chevron Filed Venezuela Taxes Despite Sanctions: Documents

Chevron is the only major US oil company still operating in Venezuela after a wave of nationalizations by Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez in the 2000s. Those seizures prompted some other operators to quit the nation and sue for compensation.

Chevron’s operations in Venezuela were effectively put on hold by sanctions during the first Trump administration. But that changed in 2022 when Biden officials struck a deal that encouraged Maduro to hold democratic elections in return for allowing Chevron to go back to work. 

Expanding oil production helped stabilize Venezuela’s economy by bringing in much-needed dollars and reducing inflationary pressures. But Maduro backtracked on many of his democratic concessions, going as far as preventing his main adversary from running and declaring himself the winner without showing proof. 

In the most autocratic moment of his regime yet, he also detained more than 2,500 people and forced opposition candidate Edmundo González to flee the nation. 

The Biden administration “got played,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his Senate confirmation hearing. “Now they have these general licenses where companies like Chevron are actually providing billions of dollars of money into the regime’s coffers, and the regime kept none of the promises that they made.” The precise amounts paid by Chevron could not be independently verified.

Read More: US Poised to Extend Chevron Venezuela Deadline Past April 3

“Revoking the Chevron license only serves to drive oil sales back toward China on the black market, allowing Venezuela to pocket every dollar,” said Juan Gonzalez, who led President Joe Biden’s administration’s policy toward Venezuela as senior director for the Western Hemisphere on the White House National Security Council. “It helps Maduro and prevents a US company from recouping what it is owed. So dumb.”

Chevron’s relationship with Venezuela has drawn intense scrutiny from Trump in recent weeks and earlier this month he laid down a 30-day deadline to wrap up its joint venture operations with state-owned PDVSA. 

The administration is poised to extend that deadline for at least another 30 days, following lobbying by Chevron, people familiar with the matter said. One condition of the extension will be that any taxes and royalties go to helping pay for migrant deportations, rather than directly Maduro regime, one of the people said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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CEO of $30 billion homebuilding empire sees ‘weaker-for-longer’ housing market

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