The Internal Revenue Service is projected to lose more than $313 billion in revenue in the coming decade as undocumented workers are poised to pay fewer taxes after the agency struck a deal to share data with U.S. immigration authorities.

The IRS is expected to lose $12 billion in revenue for the remainder of the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to a report out Tuesday by the Yale Budget Lab. The group estimates unauthorized workers paid about $66 billion in federal taxes in fiscal year 2023, with about two-thirds of that coming from payroll levies.

The Treasury Department—which oversees the IRS—earlier this week reached a deal with the Department of Homeland Security to share taxpayer information in response to law enforcement requests related to migration. While federal officials say the agreement includes safeguards and applies only to criminal matters, it reverses longstanding IRS privacy policies.

The report underscores the role undocumented workers play in paying into Social Security and Medicare benefit programs that they can’t draw from in retirement because of their immigration status. 

“The IRS has historically made clear to the undocumented immigrant population that their tax information is confidential and would not be used in such ways,” the report said. Tax compliance could fall among that group “if they become concerned that filing taxes could expose their personal contact information to law enforcement and be used to facilitate their deportation.”

President Donald Trump has enlisted the IRS and other government agencies in his efforts to crack down on undocumented immigration. He’s vowed to carry out the largest mass deportation campaign in U.S. history, and so far is ramping up raids and encouraging undocumented immigrants to “self-deport.”

The report notes that there’s “considerable uncertainty” around the estimates, as they will depend strongly on the behaviors of undocumented immigrants and their employers. The 10-year loss in revenue could be as low as $147 billion and as high as $479 billion, according to the Budget Lab.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Despite the midday decision on Wednesday by President Donald Trump to pause most of his controversial tariff hikes, the risk to retailers remains very present that duties can be once again imposed in a few months, maintaining uncertainty over how they operate even as they begin to plan buying for the holiday season.

But Walmart Inc CEO Doug McMillon told investors that the world’s largest retailer has navigated many periods of uncertainty before, such a the tariff hikes of 2018 and the post-pandemic inflation surge, assuring them the company had a strategy moving forward.

“We have a plan to execute. There will be a Christmas, and people will celebrate Christmas, and they will buy items, and we will sell them those items,” McMillon said during a media briefing at the conclusion of the company’s 2025 investor day in Dallas.

Those plans include keeping a robust inventory and stocked shelves despite trade uncertainty. That’s possible in part because of Walmart’s clout with vendors, which allows it to absorb a significant part of any cost increases.

“Some of the confidence that we’ve been expressing is really founded on: we know who these buyers are,” he said. “They have great tools to manage this long-standing supplier relationship, and we believe that they will execute well.”

To be sure, the retailer is still navigating a tricky path. Although the major grocer only imports one-third of what it sells, China is the biggest source of that inventory. And China was not included in Trump’s tariff pause—in fact, it was singled out for higher tariffs. That means Walmart is still at risk from higher duties for a big chunk of its products.

But McMillon, who for years was a buyer at Walmart and Sam’s Club, said that higher tariffs can be managed by having higher margin, higher priced products subsidize lower margin items. In other words, the higher costs stemming from a tariff can be offset by a higher price imposed on an item with low price elasticity, or items whose demand is not particularly price sensitive.

The company also has a big advantage over many rivals is that many of its goods are replenishable, so it doesn’t carry the same potential risk of being forced to clear out as much discounted unsold seasonal merchandise at other retailers. Instead, it can just stop ordering new inventory, or decrease the size, if demand softens.

“Right now, our merchants are thinking about quantities,” McMillon said. But he was clear that the company had “not canceled anything yet.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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