Several years ago, Amazon Chief Technology Officer Werner Vogels began sharing predictions on how technology would likely impact our lives the following year. In the past, he has foreseen the impact of digital technology in sports, of AI assistants in developer productivity, machine learning embedded in production lines, and ‘fem tech’ on women’s health.
As CTO of Amazon (No. 2 on the Fortune 500) since 2005, he occupies a unique perch to see and even shape what’s next. Vogels also has a vested interest, of course, in embracing the technologies that his company creates. In this year’s forecast, Vogels predicts 2026 will be the year in which “interdisciplinary cooperation influences discovery and creation at a pace we haven’t seen since the Renaissance.” He sees technology becoming a force that will reduce loneliness, empower a new breed of developers, accelerate personalized learning, and spawn military technology that will quickly cross over to areas like health care. On a more cautionary note, he warns that breakthroughs in quantum computing will force a shift in how we handle cybersecurity.
Companionship is redefined for those who need it most
The dawn of the renaissance developer
Quantum-safe becomes the only safe
Defense technology changes the world
Personalized learning meets infinite curiosity
Vogels spoke with Fortune about the thinking behind this year’s predictions.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Going through some of your past predictions, this set feels a little more somber this year. Is that fair to say?
I understand what you mean, but I do find that there is quite a bit of positivity in there. I think that the personalized learning one is a very interesting one. And I do think that the way that developers are going to change is a very positive thing.
You phrase it as the ‘dawn of the renaissance developer.’ What is that?
The Renaissance came after—what was it?—1000 years of the Dark Ages. The tools that were developed in those days were just incredible and I think that we’re going to see a similar kind of evolution, with more people inventing new technologies but also new applications.
I know loneliness sounds negative, but we’re getting older and the younger generation doesn’t want to take care of their parents so technology can help. Japan has really been inventing in that space.
Japan has been a first mover, given its demographics. As you point out, technology can also cause loneliness. Can it help younger generations, too?
Definitely. Younger people with autism, for example, have trouble touching other people but don’t have any trouble touching a mechanical device. The way that they communicate with that device is way more natural than how they communicate with adults or parents. Given my own background in the medical world, [Vogels previously worked in both health care and academic research, plus a startup, prior to joining Amazon in 2004] I’ve seen in the past how hard it was for kids to talk to a doctor. Having this huggable device with them gives them a lot more confidence to express what they’re feeling.
Amazon has built this little robot [the Amazon Astro] that can take on a lot of tasks but also goes looking through the house for you to ask you if you’ve taken your medicine. There’s a lot of things that go beyond loneliness.
There’s some concern that, with AI therapists or friends, people may find it easier to engage with a machine versus another human being. How do we make sure that technology doesn’t become a substitute for human interaction?
This is not my biggest concern. I’ve seen people prepare themselves before they go to a therapist by talking when there is nobody in the room. We can say whatever you want, and this device won’t judge you. A concern I have is that there may be companies in the future that will use these devices as advertising that suggest to you to buy product X, Y or Z. Given the amount of trust that you put into this device, that’s a big risk. We need to really be aware of that and either try to avoid it or detect it.
We already have advertising in our ambient world, especially with smart homes. Does it really matter if our robots also express some of those things that our fridge, our stove and our phones are already telling us?
I would have a different level of trust with devices that are there to help you with your loneliness or with your disease. I remember a guy in the early stages of dementia who could see that his caregivers were getting frustrated, because he kept asking, ‘What day is it today?’ The moment he got an Alexa, he only needed a sticker on it to say that she’s called Alexa, and he could ask her anything and Alexa would never get annoyed at being asked the same thing 10 times. There’s so much to help those who are suffering.
Do you worry about our ability to connect as human beings?
I have a great trust in humans. We enjoy social contact. I saw Jensen (Huang) recently and he was asked the question: Will AI eventually take over? He said, in some of our jobs, 10 to 20% may go to AI; in some of our jobs, it could be 50% but probably that’s it. As a job taker and as an efficiency tool, absolutely. As a social tool, no. We’re having a conversation, and we’re enjoying that, triggering parts of our brain that normally don’t get triggered. We are social animals.
Let’s move on to your optimism about developers.
The tools won’t take over. It is still our creativity, our understanding of the bigger picture, that will never be taken over by tools. A little task can be completed automatically. Systems consist of hundreds, if not thousands, of tasks. We are going to find new and better ways to design our systems, but there is still a significant human part in there.
There are people like you, who have a deep embedded knowledge of tech, as opposed to people like me, who now think we can vibe code our way to the next big thing, right?
If you want a one- or two-page website with a little database and you’re not terribly concerned about security; what would normally have taken you three weeks, now takes two hours? Absolutely. But that’s not what I want the guys in my bank to do. I want them to be deeply expert, both on the tech side as well as on the financial side, and understand how these things communicate with each other.
When you think of health care or financial systems, tools are strictly controlled through regulatory requirements. If something goes wrong, you can’t come to the regulator and say, ‘That was AI. That was not me.’ As such, I do think that there are things that we’ve done for years and will continue to do them. The fundamental skills for developers shouldn’t disappear.
In the past, we rewarded developers who had one really good skill, let’s say back-end developers. You still need to have this deep background, but you also need to understand what your technology is being used for and that is absolutely a renaissance approach. You need polymorphs like Da Vinci. It’s no longer enough to know one thing, you need to understand in what context this is happening, systems thinking. How do we create feedback loops? How do we make sure that, if you have all these different pieces, we make sure that if something happens here, it doesn’t go down the drain there?
That ties to your prediction about personalized learning-meets-infinite curiosity. People worry about AI users outsourcing their analysis and the sort of systems thinking that you’re advocating for.
I hope that with technology, we can bring more individualized learning to people. Our current educational system is driven towards conformity. Everybody needs to do the same thing. Creativity gets lost. Curiosity. We hammer that out of our children. We have all different interests, different capabilities. You need to educate kids on how to use these tools in order to unleash their potential.
Do you think this is a pivotal year for quantum?
Yes, but not necessarily for the quantum devices itself. We need to realize that bad actors are harvesting our data, not because they can decrypt it already now, but in four or five years they will. Everything you have encrypted now can be decrypted in five years’ time. Amazon has open-sourced technology such that you can encrypt your data so it will be safe on the quantum. The biggest challenge is not the big companies that have CIOs and CTOs and tons of developers, but all the home devices we have. How often have you updated the operating system on your home device? On my TV, never. There are major risks in the future if we do not address the quantum issue of encryption.
I’m curious about your prediction that we’ll see a compressed timeline from battlefield to civilian applications of defense technology. How transformational is that?
There are things in our civil world that would never have reached us if they had not been defense technology first, including the internet, GPS, the EpiPen. Usually it takes years to get the cost reductions and technology to be commercially viable. We’re now seeing a lot more military investment, and we’re seeing some defense companies start to operate more like tech startups than traditional defense contractors.
You’ve been CTO since 2005. How has your role or your mission evolved?
When I joined Amazon 21 years ago, there were different roles for CTOs. There are CTOs that report to the CIO and manage data centers. Startups sometimes have a CTO as their first employee and coder. I actually think CTOs are horrible managers. You should never put a CTO in charge of people.
Why not?
VPs of engineering wake up in the morning, thinking ‘Do I have the best team in the best situation? Can I shield them from all the things that are politics and stuff like that? The CTO thinks about, ‘What’s the next technology that we should be building?’ Actually, that was my role for many years within Amazon. Then you become a technology provider, and then your role changes again. You have to understand how your customers are actually using your technology. What kind of problems are you hearing from five or six different customers that are all the same, and you should be building technology for that.
What are you seeing that excites you?
I travel quite a lot because I like to know not only how the U.S. companies are using us, but how people in the Philippines and elsewhere use us. I’m seeing many young businesses that aren’t interested in becoming unicorns. They’re really interested in solving hard problems, things they saw in their own neighborhoods. In Kenya, for example, sometimes people make enough money for food but don’t have money left for the gas to cook it. So this young business, KOKO Networks, built a sort of ATM machine where you can go with a canister and put in 10 cents worth of gas. That interests me tremendously. How can we solve some of the world’s hardest problems by using technology? Especially in Africa, I’ve met so many motivated engineers that don’t want to come to the U.S.. They don’t want to go work for a large company. They want to solve the problem in their country. I love that. That’s where the real progress lies.
Good morning. As audit committees confront a rapidly expanding risk landscape, their role in corporate governance is being reshaped. Boards have often turned to current and former CFOs as independent directors, particularly for audit committees, because of their ability to translate complex operational and financial realities into effective oversight.
For example, this month, J. Michael Hansen, former EVP and CFO of Cintas Corporation, was appointed to the audit committee at Paychex. In July, Britt Vitalone, EVP and CFO of McKesson Corporation, was appointed to the audit committee of Align Technology’s board of directors. And in November, Catherine Birkett, CFO of GoCardless, was named chair of the audit and risk committee at Twinkl.
I attended the launch event of the Institute of Internal Auditors’ (IIA) Global Audit Committee Center last week in Washington, D.C., which addressed the challenges and opportunities facing audit committees. The center is designed to be a resource to strengthen the alliance between audit committees of boards and internal audit in a fast-changing risk environment. It offers research, webinars, and events and will ultimately add formal training programs.
“The center has a very strong core belief—well-informed, engaged, and well-supported audit committees are essential to corporate governance,” said Anthony Pugliese, president and CEO of the IIA.
Pugliese emphasized that board audit committees need to turn to internal audit to truly understand what is happening inside an organization. The event drew members from across the U.S. and around the world, including Canada, Europe, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, with Abdullah Alshebeili, CEO of the Saudi Authority of Internal Auditors, in attendance.
CFOs, in particular, work with internal audit on risk assessment, internal controls, and audit readiness, and they share information on financial processes and control issues. Finance chiefs also communicate regularly with the board’s audit committee.
AI and analytics reshape how audit committees see risk
During a panel discussion at the event, Ann Cohen, CFO of the IIA, said audit committees are increasingly using AI and advanced technology to connect different types of risk—third-party, financial, operational, cyber, and regulatory. They are using analytics to surface anomalies and emerging risks earlier, support proactive oversight, and run “what if” analyses before risks materialize. “It allows us to be more responsive to risks and provide more robust assurance to stakeholders,” she said.
A major focus is “everyday AI,” said Sarah Francis of the EY Center for Board Effectiveness. “I think audit committees are really also looking at, ‘How do we start to touch, feel, smell, and get used to the products that are out there?’” Directors, many of whom are active executives, are also thinking about how to deploy these tools effectively. “There have to be clear governance frameworks for AI and analytics,” she said, noting that prompts—and the people who craft them—matter. She highlighted the need for experts who can help frame broader questions around ethics within responsible AI frameworks.
Audit committees can and should engage with technology as they work toward a fully defined plan, commented Luke Whorton, executive search and leadership consultant at Spencer Stuart in the firm’s Financial Officer Practice. “How do you create a foundation, but one that’s agile and responsive, because it’s going to continue to change rapidly?” he asked.
“Audit committees need to be curious,” Cohen said. “They need to challenge management on their inputs, on their assumptions and their judgment, and on what they’ve embedded into their AI outputs.”
The committees that challenge assumptions and lean into technology, alongside strong partnerships with internal audit, could be well-positioned to safeguard trust in an uncertain world.
Linda LaGorga will step down as CFO of Entegris, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENTG), an advanced materials science provider, effective Feb. 28. Effective March 1. Mike Sauer, Entegris’ VP, controller and chief accounting officer, will assume the role of interim CFO, in addition to maintaining the responsibilities of his current role. LaGorga will serve as a senior advisor to Entegris through May 15. Entegris has initiated a search process for a permanent CFO with an executive search firm. Sauer has 37 years of experience in finance and accounting roles at Entegris.
Hugo Doetsch was appointed CFO of AuditBoard, a governance, risk, and compliance platform. Doetsch brings over two decades of financial leadership and strategic operating experience to AuditBoard. Most recently, he served as CFO at symplr, an enterprise health care operations software provider. Before that, he was CFO at NetDocuments, a cloud-based content management platform. Doetsch also held senior leadership roles at Ping Identity, where he assisted the company in a 2019 initial public offering.
Big Deal
The 2026 Fortune World’s Most Admired Companies list was released this morning. The annual ranking of corporate reputation is based on a poll of some 3,000 executives, directors, and analysts.
Apple has been No. 1 for 19 consecutive years. Amazon and Microsoft have filled out the top three for seven years in a row. Berkshire Hathaway (No. 6) and Alphabet (No. 8) have each been in the top 10 for well over a decade. Berkshire, the conglomerate nurtured by Warren Buffett, holds the distinction of having been on the All-Star list every single year since it launched in 1998; it shares that honor with Microsoft, Coca-Cola, Toyota Motor, and Johnson & Johnson.
Going deeper
“Who Gets Replaced by AI and Why?” is a report in Wharton’s business journal. New research from Wharton’s Pinar Yildirim explores how AI can impact employee motivation when it is implemented in the wrong part of a team’s workflow. The research addresses topics such as how managers should deploy AI capacity in teams and which positions are most vulnerable to being displaced by AI.
Overheard
“Working closely with David Ellison and this exceptional management team made the decision to resign from the board and jump in fully as CFO an easy one.”
—Dennis K. Cinelli wrote in a LinkedIn post on Tuesday regarding his appointment, effective Jan. 15, as CFO of Paramount, and his resignation from the company’s board. Most recently, Cinelli served as CFO of Scale AI, and he previously held senior finance and operational roles at Uber.
I love watching “Next Man Up” basketball, where the spotlight rotates unpredictably. One night it’s the bench guard dropping 30, the next it’s the role player posting a triple-double.
CapitalG’s Jill Chase—who captained her college basketball team at Williams College—says this logic actually applies to Alphabet’s growth firm. When I ask her what basketball team is most like CapitalG, she lists the WNBA’s Golden State Valkyries.
“Everybody has a different skill set, and everybody is willing to drop anything to help each other win,” said Chase. “It’s a different person every night who wins the game. And I think that’s really consistent with the way CapitalG is building its culture.”
For the first time since the firm was started in 2013, it’s promoting two general partners, Chase and Alex Nichols, Fortune has exclusively learned. Chase, who joined CapitalG in 2020 specifically with a thesis around AI, has backed Abridge, Baseten, Canva, LangChain, Physical Intelligence, and Rippling.
Nichols, meanwhile, joined CapitalG in 2018 as an associate and was promoted to partner just two years ago. He previously worked with managing partner Laela Sturdy on the firm’s investments in Duolingo, Stripe, and Whatnot, and recently led CapitalG’s investment in Zach Dell’s energy startup BasePower. At a moment where there’s mounting angst around data centers and what it will take to power them, Nichols has a surprising take on how AI will affect energy—that both batteries and solar are getting cheaper and better at something like Moore’s Law speed. Those twin cost curves, over time, should actually drive energy prices down.
“I’m actually very optimistic about the future of energy prices,” he said. “You look at the history of energy consumption versus GDP. And cheap energy means more production, more income, and means a higher standard of living.”
At a moment when venture is perhaps more competitive than ever—and there are certainly some solo GPs out there making their mark—there’s an argument that as lines blur between disciplines in an AI-ified world, venture is by necessity a team sport.
Sturdy—who’s been CapitalG’s managing partner since 2023 (and also captained her college basketball team)—and Chase both have clearly taken some learnings from their time on the court. Chase sees venture overall as becoming more team-oriented: “Historically, it used to be like ‘you made general partner, go out and win your deal.’ To me, that’s not the right way to be successful in venture ever.”
Sturdy adds that in basketball, like venture, “We have to look at the scoreboard every once in a while, and you have to get back up when you get crushed… And, of course, coming together is better than playing alone.”
Term Sheet Podcast…This week, I spoke with Exelon CEO Calvin Butler. As resource-hungry data centers continue to sprout across the country, many are questioning whether the nation’s utility network can keep pace with such large-scale demand. Butler says it can. Listen and watch here.
Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.Subscribe here.
VENTURE CAPITAL
– humans&, a San Francisco-based AI lab, raised $480 million in seed funding. SVAngel and GeorgesHarik led the round and were joined by NVIDIA and others.
– Emergent, a San Francisco-based platform designed for AI software creation, raised $70 million in Series B funding. Khosla Ventures and SoftBank led the round and were joined by Prosus, Lightspeed, Together, and Y Combinator.
– Exciva, a Heidelberg, Germany-based developer of therapeutics designed for neuropsychiatric conditions, raised €51 million ($59 million) in Series B funding. Gimv and EQTLifeSciences led the round and were joined by FountainHealthcarePartners, LifeArcVentures, and others.
– Pomelo, a Buenos Aires, Argentina-based payments infrastructure company, raised $55 million in Series C funding. Kaszek and InsightPartners led the round and were joined by IndexVentures, AdamsStreetPartners, S32, and others.
– Cloover, a Berlin, Germany-based operating system designed for energy independence, raised $22 million in Series A funding. MMCVentures and QEDInvestors led the round and were joined by LowercarbonCapital, BNVTCapital, BoschVentures, and others.
– Statusphere, a Winter Park, Fla.-based influencer marketing technology platform, raised $18 million in Series A funding. VolitionCapital led the round and was joined by HearstLab, 1984Ventures, and HowWomenInvest.
– DominionDynamics, an Ottawa, Canada-based defense technology company, raised $21M CAD ($15.2M USD) in seed funding. Georgian led the round and was joined by BessemerVenturePartners and BritishColumbiaInvestmentManagementCorporation.
– Cosmos, a New York City-based image collection and discovery platform, raised $15 million in Series A funding. ShineCapital led the round and was joined by Matrix and others.
– Mave, a Toronto, Canada-based real estate AI company, raised $5 million in seed funding from StaircaseVentures, RelayVentures, N49P, and AlatePartners.
– Stilla, a Stockholm, Sweden-based developer of an AI designed to accommodate entire teams, raised $5 million in pre-seed funding. GeneralCatalyst led the round and was joined by others.
– AsymmetricSecurity, a London, U.K. and San Francisco-based cyber forensics company, raised $4.2 million in pre-seed funding. SusaVentures led the round and was joined by HalcyonVentures, OverlookVentures, and angel investors.
PRIVATE EQUITY
– ConnectWise, backed by ThomaBravo, acquired zofiQ, a Toronto, Ontario-based agentic AI technology company designed to automate high-service desk operations. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– GrantAvenueCapital acquired 21stCenturyHealthcare, a Tempe, Ariz.-based vitamins, minerals, and supplements company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– HighlanderPartners acquired Tapatio, a Vernon, Calif.-based hot sauce brand. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– PlatinumEquity acquired CzarnowskiCollective, a Chicago, Ill.-based exhibit and events company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– UnitedBuildingSolutions, backed by AEIndustrial, acquired DFWMechanicalGroup, a Wylie, Texas-based HVAC solutions company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
IPOS
– PicPay, a Sao Paolo, Brazil-based digital bank, now plans to raise up to $435.1 million in an offering of 22.9 million shares priced between $16 and $19 on the Nasdaq. The company posted $1.7 billion in revenue for the year ended September 30. J&F International and BancoOriginal back the company.
– EthosTechnologies, a San Francisco-based online life insurance provider, plans to raise up to $210 million in an offering of 10.5 million shares priced between $18 and $20. The company posted $344 million in revenue for the year ended Sept. 30. GeneralCatalyst, HeroicVentures, EricLantz, and others back the company.
FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS
– BlueprintEquity, a La Jolla, Calif.-based growth equity firm, raised $333 million for its third fund focused on enterprise software, business-to-business, and tech-enabled services companies.
PEOPLE
– Area 15 Ventures, a Castle Pine, Colo.-based venture capital firm, promoted AdamContos to managing partner.
– BullCityVenturePartners, a Durham, N.C.-based venture capital firm, hired CarlyConnell as a principal.
– HarvestPartners, a New York City-based private equity firm, promoted LucasRodgers to partner, MatthewBruckmann and IanSingleton to principal, and ConnorScro to vice president on the private equity team.
– Wingman Growth Partners, a Greenwich, Conn.-based private equity firm, hired CheriReeve as CFO. She previously served as principal and CFO at AtlasHoldings.
Davos 2026: reading the signals, not the headlines | Fortune
Louisa Loran advises boards and leadership teams on transformation and long-term value creation and currently serves on the boards of Copenhagen Business School and CataCap Private Equity.At Google, Louisa launched a billion-dollar supply chain solutions business, doubled growth in a global industry vertical, and led strategic business transformation for the company’s largest customers in EMEA—working at the forefront of AI, data, and platform innovation. At Maersk, she co-authored the strategy that redefined the brand globally and doubled its share price, helping pivot the company from traditional shipping to integrated logistics. Her career began in the luxury and FMCG space with Moët Hennessy and Diageo, where she built iconic brands and led innovation at the intersection of heritage and digital transformation.
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