Alex Vindman internal poll shows him within striking distance of Ashley Moody

An internal poll for Democrat Alex Vindman’s Senate campaign shows him within striking distance of U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody.

A Public Policy Polling survey of registered Florida voters shows 40% of voters supporting Vindman in a head-to-head matchup against the Republican incumbent, who has the support of just 43% of voters.

That means Moody’s lead falls within the poll’s 4.1% margin of error — and well short of majority support.

Pollster Jim Williams, in a memo, suggests that’s largely because the appointed incumbent still remains largely unknown to voters, despite two prior statewide wins as state Attorney General.

“Moody is pretty much a blank slate to voters in the state, with a 43% plurality having no opinion about her at all, and those who do have one are pretty evenly split (30% approve, 27% disapprove),” Williams wrote. “Even among Republican voters, just 47% approve of her job performance, with 45% having no opinion.”

Meanwhile, 40% of voters say it’s time to elect a new U.S. Senator rather than stick with Moody, including 11% of Republicans surveyed. Only 59% of Republicans say Moody should win the U.S. Senate race, and only 29% independents feel that way.

Meanwhile, Moody holds just a 33% approval rating among independent voters, while 63% disapprove of her. Among independents, Vindman leads Moody, 44% to 37%.

And even the 17% of voters who remain undecided in the Senate race come in with a negative sense of the state of the country under President Donald Trump. The GOP President has a net approval rating of -16, according to the poll.

“Perceptions of President Trump have the potential to impact the race — he has a net negative rating on his handling of the economy, with 48% disapproving compared to 47% who approve. Among independent voters, just 35% approve, and 63% disapprove,” Williams wrote in his memo.

The poll included responses from 574 registered voters surveyed on April 2 and 3. Of note, the sample of voters broke for Trump by 13 percentage points in the 2024 election.

Of course, the poll was commissioned by Vindman’s campaign and comes before he has secured the Democratic nomination. He still faces several other Democrats, including state Rep. Angie Nixon. He has seen two Democrats who proved to be solid fundraisers drop out of the Senate contest, with Jennifer Jenkins and Hector Mujica both deciding to run for Congress instead and endorsing Vindman for the statewide run.