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AI isn’t a bubble—but it’s showing warning signs

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Hello and welcome to Eye on AI. In this edition: Why AI isn’t a bubble quite yet…ChatGPT gets chattier…Microsoft connects U.S. datacenters into the first “AI superfactory”…and “shadow” AI systems are causing problems for organizations.

Hello, Beatrice Nolan here, filling in for Sharon Goldman while she’s on vacation this week. Lately, there’s one question investors can’t seem to stop asking: Has the AI boom crossed into bubble territory?

One analyst thinks he has an answer to, and a way to keep track of whether the AI industry is in a boom or bust phase through a special mechanism that measure key industry stressors on a scale of safe, cautious, or dangerous.

The framework was created by Azeem Azhar, a renowned analyst and author, who says the data shows that the AI industry is not in a bubble—at least not yet.

What’s the difference between a healthy boom and a dangerous bubble? According to Azhar, the two are very similar, but a bubble is “a phase marked by a rapid escalation in prices and investment, where valuations drift materially away from the underlying prospects and realistic earnings power of the assets involved.” In a boom, by contrast, the fundamentals eventually catch up.

“Booms can still overshoot, but they consolidate into durable industries and lasting economic value,” Azhar writes.

Azhar’s framework for determining which situation we’re in relies on five indicators—economic strain, industry strain, revenue momentum, valuation heat, and funding quality—which have been tested against past boom-and-bust cycles and converted into a live dashboard.

According to this dashboard, if none or one gauge is in the dangerous or “red” zone, it indicates the AI industry is still in a boom; two reds mean caution; and three or more mean imminent trouble and definite bubble territory. Since Azhar launched this in September, just one of the gauges has slipped into the red zone.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, that gauge is “industry strain,” which tracks whether AI industry revenues are keeping pace with the massive capital investment flowing into infrastructure and model development. Capital expenditure from Big Tech and hyperscalers is being funneled into data centers, GPUs, and chips at a much faster rate than the revenues generated from AI products and services. While AI revenue is rising, it still only covers about one-sixth of total industry investment.

(It’s worth noting that the gauge’s flip to red was also partly attributed to a methodological update. Earlier estimates included forward projections for 2025 revenue. The new model now measures both revenue and investment based on trailing 12-month actual data, rather than forecasts.)

Funding conditions and valuation heat have also veered into cautious and worsening territory. This is largely due to questions about the stability of financing, such as riskier deals like Oracle’s $38 billion debt raise for new data centers and Nvidia’s backing of xAI’s $20 billion round. Getting financing for big data center buildouts is starting to become more complicated and slightly riskier, even as the companies continue to deliver solid finances and steady cash flow.

The gap between investor optimism and “earnings reality” is also widening, with industry price-earnings multiples increasing though still well below dot-com era peaks. Revenue momentum, as well as economic strain, are still in the “safe” green zone, but are both worsening.

At a glance, all this means we are in an AI boom, at least for now. And other analysts agree, including Goldman Sachs, which said in a note earlier this week that although AI-related equities are highly valued, the U.S. market isn’t yet displaying the broad macroeconomic distortions typical of past asset bubbles like the late-1990s tech boom.

While there’s reason to stay cautious—and no shortage of froth—it still might be too early to call this a bubble.

And with that, here’s the rest of the AI news.

Beatrice Nolan
bea.nolan@fortune.com
@beafreyanolan

FORTUNE ON AI

The rise of Yann LeCun, the 65-year-old NYU professor who is planning to leave Mark Zuckerberg’s highly paid team at Meta to launch his own AI startup — by Dave Smith

Exclusive: Beside, an AI voice startup, raises $32 million to build an AI receptionist for small businesses — Beatrice Nolan

Why Land O’Lakes is piloting a new AI tool called ‘Oz’ in bid to help boost profits on cost-pressured American farms — John Kell

OpenAI says it plans to report stunning annual losses through 2028—and then turn wildly profitable just two years later — Dave Smith

CoreWeave’s earnings report highlights $56 billion in contracted revenue, but its guidance and share price tick down amid AI infrastructure bubble fears — Amanda Gerut

AI IN THE NEWS

ChatGPT gets chattier with GPT-5.1. OpenAI has rolled out GPT-5.1, which the company is hailing as a smarter and more conversational upgrade to its popular chatbot. The new version is aimed at making the chatbot feel warmer, as well as quicker and better at following directions. Users can now tweak tone and style with presets such as Professional, Quirky, and Candid—or even adjust how “warm” or emoji-filled responses are. GPT-5.1 comes in two modes, Instant and Thinking, which the company says balances speed with deeper reasoning. The update starts rolling out to paid users this week. Read more from OpenAI here. 

Anthropic’s $50 billion U.S. AI infrastructure push. AI startup Anthropic plans to spend $50 billion building data centers across the U.S., starting in Texas and New York, in partnership with GPU cloud provider Fluidstack. The build-out aims to support Anthropic’s enterprise growth and research ambitions, creating 800 permanent jobs and 2,000 construction roles, with the first sites live in 2026. The move positions Anthropic as a key U.S. infrastructure player amid growing political focus on domestic AI capacity—and as a rival to OpenAI’s $1.4 trillion infrastructure plans. CEO Dario Amodei said the effort will help power “AI systems that can drive scientific breakthroughs.” Read more in CNBC here.

Microsoft connects U.S. datacenters into first ‘AI superfactory.’ Microsoft has activated a new AI datacenter in Atlanta, linking it to its recently announced Wisconsin facility to form what the company calls its first “AI superfactory.” The connected sites, part of Microsoft’s Fairwater project, use a dedicated fiber-optic network to act as a single distributed system for training advanced AI models at unprecedented speed. The Fairwater design features NVIDIA’s new Blackwell GPUs, a two-story layout for higher density, and nearly water-free liquid cooling. Executives say the networked datacenters will power OpenAI, Microsoft’s AI Superintelligence Team, and Copilot tools — enabling breakthroughs in AI research and real-world applications. Read more from The Wall Street Journal here. 

Michael Burry says AI giants are inflating profits. The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry—known for calling the 2008 crash—accused major AI and cloud providers of using aggressive accounting to boost reported earnings. In a post on X, Burry alleged that hyperscalers like Oracle and Meta are understating depreciation expenses by extending the estimated life span of costly Nvidia chips and servers, a move he says could inflate industry profits by $176 billion between 2026 and 2028. He claimed Oracle’s and Meta’s earnings could be overstated by as much as 27% and 21%, respectively. Read more from Bloomberg here.

AI CALENDAR

Nov. 26-27: World AI Congress, London.

Dec. 2-7: NeurIPS, San Diego.

Dec. 8-9: Fortune Brainstorm AI San Francisco. Apply to attend here.

EYE ON AI NUMBERS

76%

That’s the number of organizations that have already faced a security problem with their AI systems. According to a new report from Harness, an AI DevOps platform company, enterprises are struggling to keep track of where and how AI is being used, and it’s creating new security risks. According to the research, 62% of security teams can’t identify where large language models (LLMs) are deployed within the company, while 65% of organizations say they have “shadow AI”—where employees use AI tools for work without their company’s approval—systems running outside official oversight. As a result, 76% of these organizations have already suffered prompt-injection incidents, and 65% have experienced jailbreaking attempts. The report warns that traditional security tools can’t keep up with the fast-evolving nature of AI tools and employee use of such tools. The report also noted that developers and security teams are often misaligned, with only a third notifying security before starting AI projects.

“Shadow AI has become the new enterprise blind spot,” said Adam Arellano, Harness’ Field CTO. “Security has to live across the entire software lifecycle — before, during, and after code.”

Fortune Brainstorm AI returns to San Francisco Dec. 8–9 to convene the smartest people we know—technologists, entrepreneurs, Fortune Global 500 executives, investors, policymakers, and the brilliant minds in between—to explore and interrogate the most pressing questions about AI at another pivotal moment. Register here.



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Former Amazon exec warns Netflix-WBD deal will make Hollywood ‘a system that circles a single sun’

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A Netflix-Warner Bros. merger would risk a monopsony where a single buyer wields enormous control over the marketplace, the former head of Amazon Studios warned.

Roy Price, who is now chief executive of the studio International Art Machine, wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday that predictions of doom are nothing new in the film industry, pointing to the advent of TV, home video, streaming, and AI.

“But if Netflix acquires Warner Bros., this long-prophesied death may finally arrive, not in the sense that filmmaking will cease but in the sense that Hollywood will become a system that circles a single sun, materially changing its cultural output,” he added. “All orbits—every deal, every creative decision, every creative career—will increasingly revolve around the gravitational mass and imprimatur of one entity.”

To be sure, Netflix has said Warner Bros. operations will continue, and the studio’s films will still be released in theaters. Meanwhile, Warner’s TV channels will be spun off via a separate company, though HBO will be included in Netflix.

But Price said the danger “is not annihilation but centralization,” with the combined company accounting for an even bigger slice of overall content spending.

A reduction in bidders also means less content will be produced, while a separate development culture, set of tastes, and risk tolerances will be sidelined, he predicted.

“A Netflix merger with Warner Bros. would create a monopsony problem: too few buyers with too much bargaining power,” Price explained. “Writers, directors, actors, showrunners, puppeteers, visual effects artists—all are suppliers. The fewer buyers competing to hire them, the lower their compensation and the narrower their opportunities.”

Such reasoning sank Penguin Random House’s attempt to merge with Simon & Schuster that would’ve created a book publisher with too much leverage over authors, he pointed out.

Of course, the remaining players in Hollywood and content creation are giants in their own right as well. A KPMG survey of spending in 2024 put NBC Universal parent Comcast at the top with $37 billion, followed by Alphabet’s YouTube ($32 billion), Disney ($28 billion), Amazon ($20 billion), Netflix ($17 billion) and Paramount ($15 billion). Comcast and Paramount also made bids for Warner Bros.

Theater owners, producers and other creative workers have also voiced opposition to the deal. In addition to the business impact of a Warner Bros. takeover, other opponents raised even weightier concerns.

Oscar winner Jane Fonda sounded the alarm on a “constitutional crisis” and demanded that the Justice Department not use its regulatory power to “extract political concessions that influence content decisions or chill free speech.”

For its part, the Trump administration views the deal with “heavy skepticism,” sources told CNBC. The merger is expected to face exceptional antitrust scrutiny, and Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee is among the biggest ever.

On Wall Street, analysts see a tech angle in the merger, namely the importance of content to train and power the next generation of AI models that will shape the entertainment industry’s future.

The acquisition of Warner Bros. would help Netflix stand out in an AI future, Divyaunsh Divatia, research analyst at Janus Henderson Investors, said in a note on Friday.

“They’re also levering up on premium entertainment at a time when competition on engagement from short form video is expected to intensify especially if AI models democratize video creation at an increasing rate,” he wrote.



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25-year DEA veteran charged with helping Mexican drug cartel launder millions of dollars, secure guns and bombs

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A former high-level agent with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and an associate have been charged with conspiring to launder millions of dollars and obtain military-grade firearms and explosives for a Mexican drug cartel, according to an indictment unsealed Friday in New York.

Paul Campo, 61, of Oakton, Virginia, who retired from the DEA in 2016 after a 25-year career, and Robert Sensi, 75, of Boca Raton, Florida, were caught in sting involving a law enforcement informant who posed as a member of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, prosecutors said.

The cartel, also know as CJNG, was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. in February.

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said Campo betrayed his DEA career by helping the cartel, which he said was responsible for “countless deaths through violence and drug trafficking in the United States and Mexico.”

Campo and Sensi appeared Friday afternoon before a magistrate judge in New York, who ordered them detained without bail. Their lawyers entered not guilty pleas on their behalf.

Campo’s lawyer, Mark Gombiner, called the indictment “somewhat sensationalized and somewhat incoherent.” He denied the two men had agreed to explore obtaining weapons for the cartel.

Prosecutors say pair talked of laundering money, obtaining weapons

Over the past year, Campo and Sensi agreed to launder about $12 million in drug proceeds for the cartel and converted about $750,000 in cash to cryptocurrency, thinking it was going to the group when it really went to the U.S. government, the indictment said. They also provided a payment for about 220 kilograms of cocaine they were told would be sold in the U.S. for about $5 million, thinking they would get a cut of the proceeds, prosecutors said.

The two men also said they would look into procuring commercial drones, AR-15 semiautomatic rifles, M4 carbines, grenade launchers and rocket-propelled grenades for the cartel, the indictment said.

Campo boasted about his law enforcement experience during conversations with the informant and offered to be a “strategist” for the cartel, authorities said. He began his career as a DEA agent in New York and rose to become deputy chief of financial operations for the agency, the indictment said.

Evidence in the case includes hours of recordings of the two men talking with the informant, as well as cellphone location data, emails and surveillance images, Assistant U.S. Attorney Varun Gumaste said in court Friday.

Sensi’s attorney, Amanda Kramer, unsuccessfully argued that Sensi should be freed while he awaits trial, saying he wouldn’t flee partly because he has multiple health problems, including injuries from a fall two months ago, early-stage dementia and Type II diabetes.

Sensi was convicted in the late 1980s and early 1990s of mail fraud, defrauding the government and stealing $2.5 million, said the prosecutor, Gumaste. He said evidence shows Sensi also was engaged in a scheme to procure military-grade helicopters for a Middle East country.

Other criminal cases have roiled the DEA

DEA Administrator Terrance Cole said in a statement that while Campo is no longer employed by the DEA, the allegations undermine trust in law enforcement.

The DEA has been roiled in recent years by several embarrassing instances of misconduct in its ranks. The Associated Press has tallied at least 16 agents over the past decade brought up on federal charges ranging from child pornography and drug trafficking to leaking intelligence to defense attorneys and selling firearms to cartel associates, revealing gaping holes in the agency’s supervision.

Starting in 2021, the agency placed new controls on how DEA funds can be used in money laundering stings, and warned agents they can now be fired for a first offense of misconduct if serious enough, a departure from prior administrations.

Campo and Sensi are charged with four conspiracy counts related to narcoterrorism, terrorism, narcotics distribution and money laundering.

____

Collins reported from Hartford, Connecticut. Associated Press writer Joshua Goodman in Miami contributed to this report.



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‘You have an entire culture, an entire community that is also having that same crisis’: Colorado coal town looks anxiously to the future

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The Cooper family knows how to work heavy machinery. The kids could run a hay baler by their early teens, and two of the three ran monster-sized drills at the coal mines along with their dad.

But learning to maneuver the shiny red drill they use to tap into underground heat feels different. It’s a critical part of the new family business, High Altitude Geothermal, which installs geothermal heat pumps that use the Earth’s constant temperature to heat and cool buildings. At stake is not just their livelihood but a century-long family legacy of producing energy in Moffat County.

Like many families here, the Coopers have worked in coal for generations — and in oil before that. That’s ending for Matt Cooper and his son Matthew as one of three coal mines in the area closes in a statewide shift to cleaner energy.

“People have to start looking beyond coal,” said Matt Cooper. “And that can be a multitude of things. Our economy has been so focused on coal and coal-fired power plants. And we need the diversity.”

Many countries and about half of U.S. states are moving away from coal, citing environmental impacts and high costs. Burning coal emits carbon dioxide that traps heat in the atmosphere, warming the planet.

President Donald Trump has boosted coal as part of his agenda to promote fossil fuels. He’s trying to save a declining industry with executive orderslarge sales of coal from public landsregulatory relief and offers of hundreds of millions of dollars to restore coal plants.

That’s created uncertainty in places like Craig. As some families like the Coopers plan for the next stage of their careers, others hold out hope Trump will save their plants, mines and high-paying jobs.

Matt and Matthew Cooper work at the Colowyo Mine near Meeker, though active mining has ended and site cleanup begins in January.

The mine employs about 130 workers and supplies Craig Generating Station, a 1,400-megawatt coal-fired plant. Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association is planning to close Craig’s Unit 1 by year’s end for economic reasons and to meet legal requirements for reducing emissions. The other two units will close in 2028.

Xcel Energy owns coal-fired Hayden Station, about 30 minutes away. It said it doesn’t plan to change retirement dates for Hayden, though it’s extending another coal unit in Pueblo in part due to increased demand for electricity.

The Craig and Hayden plants together employ about 200 people.

Craig residents have always been entrepreneurial and that spirit will get them through this transition, said Kirstie McPherson, board president for the Craig Chamber of Commerce. Still, she said, just about everybody here is connected to coal.

“You have a whole community who has always been told you are an energy town, you’re a coal town,” she said. “When that starts going away, beyond just the individuals that are having the identity crisis, you have an entire culture, an entire community that is also having that same crisis.”

Phasing out coal

Coal has been central to Colorado’s economy since before statehood, but it’s generally the most expensive energy on today’s grid, said Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.

“We are not going to let this administration drag us backwards into an overreliance on expensive fossil fuels,” Polis said in a statement.

Nationwide, coal power was 28% more expensive in 2024 than it was in 2021, costing consumers $6.2 billion more, according to a June analysis from Energy Innovation. The nonpartisan think tank cited significant increases to run aging plants as well as inflation.

Colorado’s six remaining coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or convert to natural gas, which emits about half the carbon dioxide as coal, by 2031. The state is rapidly adding solar and wind that’s cheaper and cleaner than legacy coal plants. Renewable energy provides more than 40% of Colorado’s power now and will pass 70% by the end of the decade, according to statewide utility plans.

Nationwide, wind and solar growth has remained strong, producing more electricity than coal in 2025, as of the latest data in October, according to energy think tank Ember.

But some states want to increase or at least maintain coal production. That includes top coal state Wyoming, where the Wyoming Energy Authority said Trump is breathing welcome new life into its coal and mining industry.

Planning for the future

The Coopers have gone all-in on geothermal.

“Maybe we’ll never go back to coal,” Matt Cooper said. “We haven’t (gone) back to oil and gas, so we might just be geothermal people for quite some time, maybe generations, and then eventually something else will come along.”

While the Coopers were learning to use their drill in October, Wade Gerber was in downtown Craig distilling grain neutral spirits — used to make gin and vodka — on a day off from the Craig Station power plant. Gerber stepped over his corgis, Ali and Boss, and onto a stepladder to peer into a massive stainless steel pot where he was heating wheat and barley.

Gerber’s spent three decades in coal. When closure plans were announced four years ago, he, his wife Tenniel and their friend McPherson brainstormed business ideas.

“With my background in plumbing and electrical from the plant it’s like, oh yeah, I can handle that part of it,” Gerber said about distilling. “This is the easy part.”

He used Tri-State’s education subsidies for classes in distilling, while other co-workers learned to fix vehicles or repair guns to find new careers. While some plan to leave town, Gerber is opening Bad Alibi Distillery. McPherson and Tenniel Gerber are opening a cocktail bar next door.

Everyone in town hopes Trump will step in to extend the plant’s life, Gerber said. Meanwhile, they’re trying to define a new future for Craig in a nerve-wracking time.

“For me, my products can go elsewhere. I don’t necessarily have to sell it in Craig, there’s that avenue. For someone relying on Craig, it’s even scarier,” he said.

Questioning the coal rollback

Tammy Villard owns a gift shop, Moffat Mercantile, with her husband. After the coal closures were announced, they opened a commercial print shop too, seeing it as a practical choice for when so many high-paying jobs go away.

Villard, who spent a decade at Colowyo as administrative staff, said she doesn’t understand how the state can throw the switch to turn off coal and still have reliable electricity. She wants the state to slow down.

Villard describes herself as a moderate Republican. She said political swings at the federal level — from the green energy push in the last administration to doubling down on fossil fuels in this one — aren’t helpful.

“The pendulum has to come back to the middle,” she said, “and we are so far out to either side that I don’t know how we get back to that middle.”

___

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content.



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