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AI bubble talk grips the market. But in the C-suite there’s more FOMO over AI’s benefits than fear of an AI bustup

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Hello and welcome to Eye on AI. In this edition…Nvidia becomes the first $5 trillion market cap company…Anthropic finds AI models have ‘introspection,’ of a kind…and Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft tell investors just how much they’ve been spending on AI data centers. 

Hello, it’s Jeremy here. I’m just back from Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, where AI was very much a central feature in many of the discussions. I will provide a few insights from what I learned there.

Of course, there was a lot of discussion at the event about whether there’s an “AI bubble”—and that was before we got the latest earnings and cap ex numbers from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Wall Street’s disparate reactions to the companies’ quarterly report cards show the market’s growing impatience to see tangible results from hefty AI investments. They will only support companies who can show they are seeing notable revenue impact today.

Why the market reacted so differently to Meta’s, Microsoft’s and Alphabet’s capex numbers

Consider Alphabet, which saw its shares climb after its earnings report. With its quarterly search revenues growing 14.5% year-over-year, and cloud revenues up 32%, Alphabet continues to defy concerns that AI poses an existential innovator’s dilemma to its core advertising-based business model. By contrast, Meta said capital expenses on AI data centers next year would be even larger than the already whopping $70 billion to $72 billion it’s spending this year as CEO Mark Zuckerberg races to build “super-intelligence,” an incredibly ambitious effort with limited immediate revenue impact. Investors weren’t having it, and Meta’s shares got hammered, dropping 9% in pre-market trading.

Investor reaction to Microsoft’s earnings fell somewhere between these two extremes. Like Alphabet, it reported revenue numbers that exceeded consensus analyst forecasts, but not by much, and it also said capital expenditures would climb more than analysts had anticipated. So it saw its shares slide about in line with investors’ disappointment in the size of the gap between revenue acceleration and capital expense growth, even though Microsoft’s cloud computing sales were up an impressive 40% from last year, a figure it largely attributed to AI spending.

What was striking at Fortune Global Forum, however, was how little global executives seemed to care about these financial market dynamics. If there was any consensus from the discussions in Riyadh, it was that the current moment is a lot like the early days of the internet or the roll out of cloud computing in the mid-2000s and early-2010s. In other words, a real technological transformation is underway. Yes, it might involve some companies becoming overvalued—as did happen with the internet boom. But almost all agreed that AI is going to have a transformative and lasting impact on their companies, and on the world economy, even if there is a market correction.

Executives are finding value in AI

At an IBM-sponsored dinner at FGF that Fortune-hosted, Ana Paula Assis, IBM’s senior vice president and chair for EMEA and growth markets, said that, in her experience, it wasn’t the fear of an AI bubble—the concern that AI might just a flash in the pan that doesn’t live up to the hype—that held companies back from investing in the technology. Instead, it was the speed of AI innovation that was actually the problem. Some companies, she said, seemed worried they would build systems around one set of models and capabilities, only to have those eclipsed in just a few months or a year, requiring them to change those workflows and swap models again. She described some potential customers as “like deer in the headlights” dazzled and frozen in place by the pace of change.

On stage at the conference, Ruth Porat, the president and chief investment officer at Alphabet, echoed Assis’s view to some degree. She noted that there was a big disparity between the speed of AI advances and the speed at which companies were adopting the technology. She said this disparity was largely the result of how difficult it is for large enterprises to change internal processes in general. And to get the most out of AI requires companies to rethink every process, she said, so it is perhaps not surprising that this is happening much more slowly than the rate at which AI companies, including Google, are rolling out new AI models and capabilities.

IBM put out some survey results this week for EMEA enterprises that show companies are indeed moving ahead with deploying AI at scale. Its survey of 3,500 senior executives in 10 countries found that two-thirds reported “significant productivity gains” from deploying AI. In some sectors, such as finance, the figure was 72%. Adoption in Saudi Arabia was even higher still—84%. What’s more, across EMEA, 92% of those surveyed were confident that AI agents would deliver ROI within the next two years. (Which may prove the point about the tech capabilities running far ahead of adoption. You might remember how many top tech execs declared 2025 to be “the year of AI agents.” I guess the real year of AI agents might be 2027!)

Ok, with that, here’s more AI news.

Jeremy Kahn
jeremy.kahn@fortune.com
@jeremyakahn

FORTUNE ON AI

Character.AI bans teens from talking to its chatbots amid mounting lawsuits and regulatory pressure—by Beatrice Nolan

Everyone thinks AI is replacing factory workers, but Amazon’s layoffs show it’s coming for middle management first—by Eva Roytburg

Martin Sorrell says AI has already ‘missed the Oppenheimer moment’—by Allie Garfinkle

Longevity science is on the cusp of major breakthroughs thanks to AI, but significant ‘data gaps’ need to be filled, expert says—Alexei Oreskovic

AI IN THE NEWS

Nvidia becomes world’s first $5 trillion company as it reveals $500 million order backlog. The AI chip company became the first business ever to reach a $5 trillion market capitalization, after its shares rose earlier in the week following several announcements by its CEO and founder, Jensen Huang, at a developer conference in Washington, D.C. Huang revealed that the company has a $500 billion order backlog for its latest Blackwell GPUs and its upcoming Rubin GPUs. The company has also recently announced deeper partnerships and investments with OpenAI, Oracle, and Eli Lilly. Nvidia has seen its market cap add $3 trillion in value since early 2024. Read more from The Wall Street Journal here.

Fed Chair Powell says AI boom not comparable to dot com bubble. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the current artificial intelligence boom differs from the dot-com bubble because today’s leading companies—and here he seems to have been referring to the likes of Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, as opposed to the AI model makers such as OpenAI and Anthropic—actually generate profits. He also noted that the AI boom is driving tangible economic growth through investments in data centers and chips. (Although it should be said that the dot com bubble also fueled capital investment in fiber optics and networking equipment.) He contrasted this with the 1990s internet frenzy, when many high-valued firms collapsed after failing to turn a profit. You can read more from CNBC here.

Anthropic says cutting-edge AI models may have a kind of introspection. The AI company said its Claude Opus 4 and 4.1 models exhibit early signs of introspection—the ability to detect and describe aspects of their own internal states rather than just generate plausible text. In experiments, Anthropic researchers “injected” specific neural activation patterns that they knew were associated with particular concepts into the model at times when it was not considering topics related to those concepts. It then asked the model whether it noticed anything different about its thinking in these instances. The models were able to correctly identify some of these “thoughts” as not their own some of the time, indicating a limited form of self-monitoring, according to the Anthropic researchers. This introspective behavior, however, was highly inconsistent—occurring only about 20% of the time—and its underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Anthropic cautions that while intriguing, these findings do not imply human-like self-awareness but could help advance future work on model transparency and interpretability. You can read more in Anthropic’s blog post on the research here.

Study finds top AI models can’t construct predictive “world models.” A group of researchers from the non-profit AI lab the Basis Research Institute and affiliated with MIT, Harvard University, the University of Montreal, the University of Cambridge and Cornell University, built a new benchmark to test how leading LLMs perform at tasks that require understanding a virtual world, including discovering links between cause and effect and the “rules” by which the world operates. Their new “AutumnBench” involves a suite of 43 grid-world environments with 129 tasks, including predicting which objects are behind an obstruction, planning, and detecting what’s changed in a scene and the likely cause. They looked at how three state-of-the-art reasoning models— Anthropic’s Claude 4 Sonnet, Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro, and OpenAI’s o3—compared against 517 human participants. They allowed the test subjects to spend some time exploring each virtual world and deploying strategies to figure out the rules of the world before testing them on the tasks. The results show that humans significantly outperform the AI models across all task types and environments. What’s more, they found that the models fail to adopt human-like strategies for determining the rules of the virtual worlds and how to perform the tasks, such as hypothesis-testing and updating their beliefs to account for new evidence. You can read the research paper here.

AI CALENDAR

Nov. 10-13: Web Summit, Lisbon. 

Nov. 26-27: World AI Congress, London.

Dec. 2-7: NeurIPS, San Diego.

Dec. 8-9: Fortune Brainstorm AI San Francisco. Apply to attend here.

EYE ON AI NUMBERS

$78.2 billion

That’s the amount that just Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet collectively spent building new AI data centers and buying AI hardware in the three months between the end of June and the end of September. And all three companies signaled they plan to continue to ramp up that spending further over the next quarter and throughout 2026. You can read more here from the Financial Times. 



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The European Union’s top official on Tuesday described U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned new tariffs over Greenland as “a mistake especially between long-standing allies” and called into question Trump’s trustworthiness, while French President Emmanuel Macron said the bloc shouldn’t hesitate to use a powerful tool in retaliation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was responding to Trump’s announcement that starting February, a 10% import tax will be imposed on goods from eight European nations that have rallied around Denmark in the wake of his escalating calls for the United States to take over the semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland.

“The European Union and the United States have agreed to a trade deal last July,” Von der Leyen said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “And in politics as in business – a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something.”

“We consider the people of the United States not just our allies, but our friends. And plunging us into a downward spiral would only aid the very adversaries we are both so committed to keeping out of the strategic landscape,” she added.

She vowed that the EU’s response “will be unflinching, united and proportional.”

Trump has insisted the U.S. needs the territory for security reasons against possible threats from China and Russia.

Earlier Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said America’s relations with Europe remain strong and urged trading partners to “take a deep breath” and let tensions driven the new tariff threats over Greenland “play out.”

“I think our relations have never been closer,” he said.

But Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen, speaking in the Danish parliament, said that “the worst may still be ahead of us.” She said that “we have never sought conflict. We have consistently sought cooperation.”

Trump’s threats spark diplomatic flurry across Europe

The American leader’s threats have sparked outrage and a flurry of diplomatic activity across Europe, as leaders consider possible countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs and the first-ever use of the European Union’s anti-coercion instrument.

The EU has three major economic tools it could use to pressure Washington: new tariffs, suspension of the U.S.-EU trade deal, and the “trade bazooka” — the unofficial term for the bloc’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, which could sanction individuals or institutions found to be putting undue pressure on the EU.

Macron said in Davos that “the anti-coercion mechanism is a powerful instrument and we should not hesitate to deploy it in today’s tough environment.” He pushed back against aggressive U.S. trade pressures and “an endless accumulation of new tariffs.”

Earlier Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that he had spoken with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He said “I agreed to a meeting of the various parties in Davos, Switzerland.”

France’s Macron suggests G-7 meeting in Paris this week

Trump also posted a text message from Emmanuel Macron in which the French president suggested a meeting of members of the Group of Seven industrialized democracies in Paris after the Davos gathering. An official close to Macron, who spoke anonymously in line with the French presidency’s customary practices, confirmed the message shared by Trump is genuine.

Later, Trump posted some provocatively doctored images. One showed him planting the U.S. flag next to a sign reading “Greenland, U.S. Territory, Est. 2026.” The other showed Trump in the Oval Office next to a map that showed Greenland and Canada covered with the U.S. Stars and Stripes.

In a sign of how tensions have increased in recent days, thousands of Greenlanders marched over the weekend in protest of any effort to take over their island.

In his latest threat of tariffs, Trump indicated that the import taxes would be retaliation for last week’s deployment of symbolic numbers of troops from the European countries to Greenland — though he also suggested that he was using the tariffs as leverage to negotiate with Denmark.

Calls for a stronger Europe against Trump’s threats

Denmark’s minister for European affairs called Trump’s tariff threats “deeply unfair.” He said that Europe needs to become even stronger and more independent, while stressing there is “no interest in escalating a trade war.”

“You just have to note that we are on the edge of a new world order, where having power has unfortunately become crucial, and we see a United States with an enormous condescending rhetoric towards Europe,” Marie Bjerre told Danish public broadcaster DK on Tuesday.

Speaking on the sidelines of Davos, California Gov. Gavin Newsom slammed Europe’s response to Trump’s tariff threats as “pathetic” and “embarrassing,” and urged European leaders to unite and stand up to the United States.

“It is time to get serious, and stop being complicit,” Newsom told reporters. “It’s time to stand tall and firm, have a backbone.”

On Monday night, Greenland’s European backers looked at establishing a more permanent military presence in the High North to help guarantee security in the Arctic region, a key demand of the United States, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said.

Jonson said after talks with his counterparts from Denmark, Greenland and Norway that European members of NATO are currently “doing what’s called a reconnaissance tour in order to identify what kind of needs there are when it comes to infrastructure and exercises and so forth.”

In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov strongly denied any intention by Russia and China to threaten Greenland, while also describing Greenland as a “colonial gain” for Denmark. At a news conference, he said that “in principle, Greenland isn’t a natural part of Denmark.”

US-UK tensions over Chagos Islands

In another sign of tension between allies, the British government on Tuesday defended its decision to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after Trump attacked the plan, which his administration previously supported.

Trump said that relinquishing the remote Indian Ocean archipelago, home to a strategically important American naval and bomber base, was an act of stupidity that shows why he needs to take over Greenland.

In a speech to lawmakers at Britain’s Parliament on Tuesday, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said he hoped to “calm the waters” as Trump roils the trans-Atlantic relationship with his desire to take over Greenland.

Johnson said the U.S. and the U.K. “have always been able to work through our differences calmly, as friends. We will continue to do that.”

___

AP writers Sylvie Corbet in Paris, Jill Lawless in London, Lorne Cook in Brussels, and Elaine Kurtenbach in Bangkok contributed to this report.



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IWG CEO warns a 4-day week isn’t coming any time soon, despite what Bill Gates and Elon Musk say

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Billionaire Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Nvidia’s boss Jensen Huang, and Elon Musk have all made the same prediction in recent years: The workweek is about to shrink. Automation will take over routine tasks, they argue, freeing workers’ time and pushing a four-day work week toward becoming standard. Gates has even floated the idea of a two-day workweek.

But Mark Dixon, CEO and founder of International Workplace Group (IWG) CEO isn’t buying it. From his vantage point, running the world’s largest flexible office provider—with more than 8 million users across 122 countries and 85% of the Fortune 500 among its customers—the math doesn’t add up.

“Everyone is focused on productivity, so no time soon,” Dixon says flatly.

“It’s about the cost of labor,” Dixon explains to Fortune. The U.S. and U.K. are experiencing significant cost-of-living crises. At the same time, he says, businesses are experiencing a “cost of operating crisis.” 

“Everyone’s having to control their labor costs because all costs have gone up so much, and you can’t get any more money from customers, so therefore you have to get more out of people.”

Essentially, companies can’t afford to pay the same wages for fewer hours, and they can’t pass the difference on to customers. So any time ‘freed’ by automation is far more likely to be filled with new tasks than handed back to workers. 

Elon Musk says work will be optional in the future—but this CEO says AI may create more work, not less

Silicon Valley’s loudest voices frame AI as a route to more leisure. The world’s richest person and the boss of Space X, Tesla and X, Elon Musk has gone as far as predicting work will be completely “optional” and more like a hobby, in as little as 10 years. 

In reality, Dixon suggests that this scenario would only happen if there’s not enough work to go around, rather than bosses suddenly becoming benevolent. But in his eyes, AI will most likely create more—not less—work. 

Every major technological shift, he argues, has followed a similar arc: fear of displacement, followed by an expansion of opportunity.

“AI will speed up companies’ development, so there’ll be more work, it’ll just be different work,” he says.

In 19th-century Britain, Dixon recalls English textile workers protesting against new automated machinery, fearing it threatened their livelihoods, lowered wages, and de-skilled their craft during the Industrial Revolution. They were called Luddites.

“They went around the country smashing up the looms to stop progress. But look, in the end, you’ve heard of the Industrial Revolution. That’s what came from those looms and factory production.” As mass production made goods more available, retail grew; more managers were needed to oversee the machines; the middle class grew, and so on. 

Likewise, there was a similar palpable fear when computers first burst on the scene in the 1980s. The 1996 book Women and Computers detailed people fearing becoming “a slave” to machines and feeling aggressive towards computers.”

But since the explosion of the PC (and then the internet, the Cloud, social media, and so on), most professions have undergone a digital rebrand—instead of disappearing altogether. 

Copywriters now use laptops instead of typewriters; designers rely on Adobe Photoshop instead of pen and paper; and a plethora of IT roles were created along the way. 

“It’s impossible to stop progress,” Dixon concludes.  

“Companies have to do what companies have to do, and it’s really important for young people coming into the marketplace to work a little bit harder on really selecting the right jobs, the right avenue, getting extra skills in things like AI. Whatever job you’re going to do, you’ve got to be good at tech.”



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Jerome Powell to attend Supreme Court oral argument on Lisa Cook’s attempted firing from Federal Reserve

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will attend the Supreme Court’s oral argument Wednesday in a case involving the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook, an unusual show of support by the central bank chair.

The high court is considering whether President Donald Trump can fire Cook, as he said he would do in late August, in an unprecedented attempt to remove one of the seven members of the Fed’s governing board. Powell plans to attend the high court’s Wednesday session, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It’s a much more public show of support than the Fed chair has previously shown Cook. But it follows Powell’s announcement last week that the Trump administration has sent subpoenas to the Fed, threatening an unprecedented criminal indictment of the Fed Chair. Powell — appointed to the position by Trump in 2018 — appears to be casting off last year’s more subdued reponse to Trump’s repeated attacks on the central bank in favor of a more public confrontation.

Powell issued a video statement Jan. 11 condemning the subpoenas as “pretexts” for Trump’s efforts to force him to sharply cut the Fed’s key interest rate. Powell oversaw three rate cuts late last year, lowering the rate to about 3.6%, but Trump has argued it should be as low as 1%, a position few economists support.

The Trump administration has accused Cook of mortgage fraud, an allegation that Cook has denied. No charges have been made against Cook. She sued to keep her job, and the Supreme Court Oct. 1 issued a brief order allowing her to stay on the board while they consider her case.

If Trump succeeds in removing Cook, he could appoint another person to fill her slot, which would give his appointees a majority on the Fed’s board and greater influence over the central bank’s decisions on interest rates and bank regulation.

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.



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