After Special Election wins, will it be Democrats expanding the congressional map in Florida?

Will overperformance by Democrats in Florida’s Special Elections put more GOP-controlled congressional seats at risk?

After Democrat Brian Nathan flipped a Tampa state Senate seat and Democrat Emily Gregory turned President Donald Trump’s Florida House district blue, national Democrats wonder if more U.S. House districts will be in play in November.

Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is targeting four GOP-held seats in Florida, twice as many as House Democrats targeted in 2024. A list of DCCC “Districts in Play” includes those represented by U.S. Reps. Laurel Lee of Thonotosassa, Anna Paulina Luna of St. Petersburg, Cory Mills of New Smyrna Beach, and María Elvira Salazar of Coral Gables.

But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently told Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman that the Special Election upsets had him thinking Democrats should step up efforts against Republican U.S. Reps. Mario Díaz-Balart of Hialeah, Carlos Giménez of Miami-Dade and Brian Mast of Stuart.

That could mean the DCCC, the political arm of House Democrats, could expand its map soon. But no such announcement has been made so far, and such decisions only come after close scrutiny around the districts.

Even if the DCCC never lists those GOP incumbents as targets, Jeffries is also closely aligned with the House Majority PAC, which announced in December 2024 that it may recruit against Giménez, Lee, Mills and Salazar.

Díaz-Balart, the longest-serving member of Florida’s congressional delegation, said he doesn’t worry about being targeted.

“I’m used to being targeted — not the first time and won’t be the last,” he said. “I’m ready for anything the Left throws my way. Last time they targeted me with big money and their dream candidate, I won by better than 60%-40% on a horrible year for the GOP.”

That’s a reference to the 2018 cycle, when Democrat Mary Barzee Flores ran against the Hialeah Republican and generated significant attention as one of several female Democratic candidates challenging GOP incumbents. The same cycle, Lauren Baer challenged Mast and lost by 8 percentage points.

But Democrats did pick up two U.S. House seats in Florida that cycle, if only for a term. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell unseated incumbent U.S Rep. Carlos Curbelo, while Democrat Donna Shalala won an open seat previously held by Republican U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Both Democrats were defeated in 2020 by Giménez and Salazar, respectively.

Luna, Mast and Mills also got their jobs flipping open seats previously held by Democrats. That means each of those districts — or, rather, prior configurations of them — were held by Democrats within the last decade.

One national Democratic strategist said the Tuesday election results had sent enthusiasm in Washington to new heights, but that any actual expansion of the map would require careful consideration. But the strategist noted that by announcing targets early and getting infrastructure in place, Democrats can field competitive candidates in any corner of the state — or at least in Central and South Florida.

That’s true, the strategist said, whether or not Florida Republicans follow through with a mid-decade redraw of congressional lines. Indeed, Democrats believe a new map at this point would almost inevitably put more Republicans at risk instead of making trouble for Democrats.

That’s likely part of why many Republicans in Florida’s delegation have more vocally questioned plans for an aggressive redistricting effort.

“Don’t do it,” U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster, a Clermont Republican, told Punchbowl News.

“You could put incumbents at risk,” U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, told POLITICO.

Many Republicans have urged caution if lawmakers do move ahead with redistricting, something Trump pushed other states to do to maximize the number of safe Republican seats. Many presume that will mean making U.S. Reps. Jared Moskowitz, a Parkland Democrat, and Darren Soto, a Kissimmee Democrat, more vulnerable.

Both have already been targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the GOP counterpart to the DCCC. But the NRCC has not advocated for redrawing Florida’s map, and the group notably listed the two Florida Democrats on its list of vulnerable incumbents before any conversations began about mid-decade redistricting.

Some Republican strategists are skeptical that any changes that would put Moskowitz or Soto at risk of an upset would do the same to other Republican incumbents in Florida.

Moskowitz, for his part, said he still expects Republicans in Tallahassee to draw new maps. But he expressed confidence that he will be able to run a successful race under any lines.

“I’ll win and everyone will be so tired of winning,” Moskowitz told Florida Politics.

Democrats in Washington tend to agree and see Moskowitz, a moderate, as a candidate who can win in any South Florida district. And while targeting of Soto appears to be based on gains Trump made with Hispanic voters in 2024, when he won Osceola County, that’s a demographic Republicans have openly fretted will bolt from the GOP this year.

Mast, for his part, said he has tried to stay out of redistricting conversations. “I’ve never had too many friends in the Statehouse,” he said.

The national Democratic strategist speaking to Florida Politics wasn’t certain Republicans like Mast would end up at risk, especially if the current lines remain in place. And if new lines are drawn, House Democrats would likely analyze competitiveness in any race rated R+7 or less.

Christian Ulvert, a Democratic consultant in South Florida, feels more bullish than that. Noting a flip in the Miami Mayor race earlier this year and overperformance in two heavily Republican congressional districts last year, he said virtually no Republican should feel safe in 2026.

“Now, any district that’s R+15 to R+20 is a tossup,” he said. “If a Republican won by 20 to 25 points in the past, they are no longer expecting to cruise to re-election. They will have a fight.”

Regardless, there is a growing belief that at least one more GOP-held district could end up in play for Democrats by November. That’s quite a shift from when heady Republicans in the wake of Trump’s comeback presidential campaign believed Florida could increase the map for the GOP by as many as five seats.

For his part, Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power, himself a candidate for Congress this year, still feels like Florida can produce more GOP seats this election cycle than in the past.

“While I have not discussed redistricting because that’s up to the Legislature, due to the rapid growth of Republicans in Florida, they are underrepresented currently in D.C.,” he said.