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ADP says the private sector is shrinking. That’s bad news for the job market—but possibly great news for Trump

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Private-sector hiring contracted in June, ADP said, completely missing economists’ forecasts ahead of Thursday’s official jobs report.

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, according to a Wednesday report by payroll provider ADP. This marks the lowest reading since March 2023. The government’s nonfarm payrolls report will be released Thursday morning, and economists expect a 110,000 increase for June, per Dow Jones estimates. But in light of ADP’s data, some economists may revise down their jobs reports estimates.

“The ADP report increased the odds of a downside surprise in Thursday’s nonfarm payroll release,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, wrote in a note. “I expect a weaker-than-consensus report, increasing the odds the Fed cuts three times this year.”

The Federal Reserve’s decision not to cut interest rates yet this year due to market uncertainty and stronger-than-expected labor data has been a pain point for President Donald Trump. 

Trump has said the federal government is stuck paying massive interest-rate payments on its debt because the Fed hasn’t lowered rates, even calling for the equivalent of 10 rate cuts in June. The White House said on Monday that Trump sent a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell writing, “You have cost the U.S.A. a fortune—and continue to do so… You should lower the rate by a lot!”

Powell reiterated on Tuesday the central bank plans to “wait and learn more” about tariff effects on the economy before lowering rates again, Reuters reported. But weak labor data could incentivize the Fed to step in.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

The ADP report has diverged from official jobs reports in the past, signaling to some economists the measure can’t always predict the subsequent government jobs report. In May, ADP reported soft data that ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

“The drop in ADP’s measure of private payrolls tells us very little about the likely outturn for tomorrow’s official payrolls estimate for June, mostly because ADP’s forecasting track record is dire,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Senior U.S. Economist Oliver Allen said in a note. “ADP’s forecast error, regardless of sign, has averaged 87K—and has been as big as 348K—since its methodology was overhauled in August 2022.”

Allen added Pantheon maintains its forecast of a 100,000 increase in private payrolls in June, a “material step down” from the average 187,000 rise over the previous six months. He expects the Fed to wait until September to cut rates.

Private-sector slowdown

Though economists question the accuracy of ADP’s jobs report on a monthly basis, the data is “still helpful in determining long-term trends,” LPL Financial’s Jeffrey Roach said.

“This report isn’t entirely surprising,” LaborIQ Chief Economist Mallory Vachon told Fortune in an email. “First, the ADP payroll figures often differ from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. And second, both tell a similar story about the current labor market trajectory–private-sector employment growth has slowed or declined.”

According to ADP’s report, the bulk of job losses came in service roles tied to professional and business services, as well as health and education. Small businesses led the losses, with large companies with more than 500 employees gaining the most.

This past month, the labor market has seen a slowdown in hiring, continuing a trend that’s been going on for the past year-and-a-half. Vachon said despite a slight uptick in layoffs over this time, “the lack of hiring volume has been a driver of unemployment increases.”

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said in a note tariff hikes, the Israel-Iran conflict, and policy uncertainty gave employers reason to pull back on hiring during the second quarter.

“Hiring will likely stay slow in the second half of 2025,” Adams wrote. “Ordinarily, job growth malingering at the second quarter’s sluggish pace for half a year would translate into a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate, which would pressure the Fed to cut rates this fall.”

“This is why financial markets price in half a percent to three quarters of a percent in rate cuts by year-end,” he added.

Adams warned of the changing labor market—one where foreign-born workers accounted for four-fifths of labor force growth between early 2020 and early 2025. Trump’s crackdown on immigration “means that financial markets will likely be surprised by the unemployment rate holding steadier in the second half of the year than is currently priced in,” he wrote.

“This labor market has required constant reconciliation of data points that are seemingly at odds with one another,” Vachon said. 

Vachon said the most prominent example of this is wage growth, which hasn’t slowed as hiring cools.

“This puts pressure on businesses who face dueling challenges of slower economic growth and continued pressure to keep up with compensation,” she said.



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Trump wants more health savings accounts. A catch: they can’t pay insurance premiums

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With the tax-free money in a health savings account, a person can pay for eyeglasses or medical exams, as well as a $1,700 baby bassinet or a $300 online parenting workshop.

Those same dollars can’t be used, though, to pay for most baby formulas, toothbrushes — or insurance premiums.

President Donald Trump and some Republicans are pitching the accounts as an alternative to expiring enhanced federal subsidies that have lowered insurance premium payments for most Americans with Affordable Care Act coverage. But legal limits on how HSAs can and can’t be used are prompting doubts that expanding their use would benefit the predominantly low-income people who rely on ACA plans.

The Republican proposals come on the heels of a White House-led change to extend HSA eligibility to more ACA enrollees. One group that would almost certainly benefit: a slew of companies selling expensive wellness items that can be purchased with tax-free dollars from the accounts.

There is also deep skepticism, even among conservatives who support the proposals, that the federal government can pull off such a major policy shift in just a few weeks. The enhanced ACA subsidies expire at the end of the year, and Republicans are still debating among themselves whether to simply extend them.

“The plans have been designed. The premiums have been set. Many people have already enrolled and made their selections,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank, warned senators on Nov. 19. “There’s very little that this Congress can do to change the outlook.”

Cassidy’s Plan

With health savings accounts, people who pay high out-of-pocket costs for health insurance are able to set aside money, without paying taxes, for medical expenses.

For decades, Republicans have promoted these accounts as a way for people to save money for major or emergent medical expenses without spending more federal tax dollars on health care.

The latest GOP proposals would build on a change included in Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which makes millions more ACA enrollees eligible for health savings accounts. Starting Jan. 1, those enrolled in Obamacare’s cheapest coverage may open and contribute to HSAs.

Now Republicans are making the case that, in lieu of the pandemic-era enhanced ACA subsidies, patients would be better off being given money to cover some health costs — specifically through deposits to HSAs.

The White House has yet to release a formal proposal, though early reports suggested it could include HSA contributions as well as temporary, more restrictive premium subsidies.

Sen. Bill Cassidy — a Louisiana Republican who chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee and is facing a potentially tough reelection fight next year — has proposed loading HSAs with federal dollars sent directly to some ACA enrollees.

“The American people want something to pass, so let’s find something to pass,” Cassidy said on Dec. 3, pitching his plan for HSAs again. “Let’s give power to the patient, not profit to the insurance company.”

He has promised a deal can be struck in time for 2026 coverage.

Democrats, whose support Republicans will likely need to pass any health care measure, have widely panned the GOP’s ideas. They are calling instead for an extension of the enhanced subsidies to control premium costs for most of the nearly 24 million Americans enrolled in the ACA marketplace, a larger pool than the 7.3 million people the Trump administration estimates soon will be eligible for HSAs.

HSAs “can be a useful tool for very wealthy people,” said Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. “But I don’t see it as a comprehensive health insurance opportunity.”

Who Can Use HSAs?

The IRS sets restrictions on the use of HSAs, which are typically managed by banks or health insurance companies. For starters, on the ACA marketplace, they are available only to those with the highest-deductible health insurance plans — the bronze and catastrophic plans.

There are limits on how much can be deposited into an account each year. In 2026 it will be $4,400 for a single person and $8,750 for a family.

Flexible spending accounts, or FSAs — which are typically offered through employer coverage — work similarly but have lower savings limits and cannot be rolled over from year to year.

The law that established HSAs prohibits the accounts from being used to pay insurance premiums, meaning that without an overhaul, the GOP’s proposals are unlikely to alleviate the problem at hand: skyrocketing premium payments. Obamacare enrollees who receive subsidies are projected to pay 114% more out-of-pocket for their premiums next year on average, absent congressional action.

Even with the promise of the government depositing cash into an HSA, people may still opt to go without coverage next year once they see those premium costs, said Tom Buchmueller, an economics professor at the University of Michigan who worked in the Biden administration.

“For people who stay in the marketplace, they’re going to be paying a lot more money every month,” he said. “It doesn’t help them pay that monthly premium.”

Others, Buchmueller noted, might be pushed into skimpier insurance coverage. Obamacare bronze plans come with the highest out-of-pocket costs.

An HHS Official’s Interest

Health savings accounts can be used to pay for many routine medical supplies and services, such as medical and dental exams, as well as emergency room visits. In recent years, the government has expanded the list of applicable purchases to include over-the-counter products such as Tylenol and tampons.

Purchases for “general health” are not permissible, such as fees for dance or swim lessons. Food, gym memberships, or supplements are not allowed unless prescribed by a doctor for a medical condition or need.

Americans are investing more into these accounts as their insurance deductibles rise, according to Morningstar. The investment research firm found that assets in HSAs grew from $5 billion 20 years ago to $146 billion last year. President George W. Bush signed the law establishing health savings accounts in 2003, with the White House promising at the time that they would “help more American families get the health care they need at a price they can afford.”

Since then, the accounts have become most common for wealthier, white Americans who are healthy and have employer-sponsored health insurance, according to a report released by the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office in September.

Now, even more money is expected to flow into these accounts, because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Companies are taking notice of the growing market for HSA-approved products, with major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target developing online storefronts dedicated to devices, medications, and supplies eligible to be purchased with money in the accounts.

Startups have popped up in recent years dedicated to helping people get quick approval from medical providers for various — and sometimes expensive — items, memberships, or fitness or health services.

Truemed — a company co-founded in 2022 by Calley Means, a close ally of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — has emerged as one of the biggest players in this niche space.

A $9,000 red cedar ice bath and a $2,000 hemlock sauna, for example, are available for purchase with HSA funds through Truemed. So, too, is the $1,700 bassinet, designed to automatically respond to the cries of a newborn by gently rocking the baby back to sleep.

Truemed’s executives say its most popular products are its smaller-dollar fitness offerings, which include kettlebells, supplements, treadmills, and gym memberships.

“What we’ve seen at Truemed is that, when given the choice, Americans choose to invest their health care dollars in these kinds of proven lifestyle interventions,” Truemed CEO Justin Mares told KFF Health News.

Means joined the Department of Health and Human Services in November after a stint earlier this year at the White House, where he worked when Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law in July. Truemed’s general counsel, Joe Vladeck, said Means left the company in August.

Asked about Means’ potential to benefit from the law’s expansion of HSAs, HHS spokeswoman Emily Hilliard said in a statement that “Calley Means will not personally benefit financially from this proposal as he will be divesting from his company since he has been hired at HHS as a senior advisor supporting food and nutrition policy.”

Truemed is privately held, not publicly traded, and details of how Means will go about divesting have not been disclosed.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.



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Netflix lines up $59 billion of debt for Warner Bros. deal

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Netflix Inc. has lined up $59 billion of financing from Wall Street banks to help support its planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., which would make it one of the largest ever loans of its kind.

Wells Fargo & Co., BNP Paribas SA and HSBC Plc are providing the unsecured bridge loan, according to a statement Friday, a type of financing that is typically replaced with more permanent debt such as corporate bonds.

Under the deal announced Friday, Warner Bros. shareholders will receive $27.75 a share in cash and stock in Netflix. The total equity value of the deal is $72 billion, while the enterprise value of the deal is about $82.7 billion.

Bridge loans are a crucial step for banks in building relationships with companies to win higher-paying mandates down the road. 

A loan of $59 billion would rank among the biggest of its type, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA obtained $75 billion of loans to back its acquisition of SABMiller Plc in 2015, the largest ever bridge financing, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



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Stocks: Facing a vast wave of incoming liquidity, the S&P 500 prepares to surf to a new record high

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The S&P 500 index ticked up 0.3% yesterday, its eighth straight upward trading session. It is now less than half a percentage point away from its record high, and futures were pointing marginally up again this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures were even more optimistic, up 0.39% before the open in New York. The VIX “fear” index (which measures volatility) has sunk 12.6% this month, indicating that investors seem to have settled in for a calm, quiet, risk-on holiday season.

They have reason to be happy. Washington is preparing a wave of incoming liquidity that is likely to generate fresh demand for equities.

For instance, the CME FedWatch index shows an 87% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate cut next week, delivering a new round of cheaper money. Further cuts are expected in 2026.

Furthermore, Wall Street largely expects President Trump to announce that Kevin Hassett will replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell in May—and Hassett is widely regarded as a dove who will lean in favor of further rate cuts.

Elsewhere, the Fed has begun a series of “reserve management purchases,” a program in which the central bank will buy short-term T-bills—a move that will add more liquidity to markets generally.

Banks, brokers and trading platforms are also lining up to handle ‘Trump Accounts,’ into which the U.S. government will deposit $1,000 for every child. The trust fund can be invested in low-cost stock index trackers—a new source of investment demand coming online in the back half of 2026.

So it’s no surprise that nine major investment banks polled by the Financial Times expect stocks to rise in 2026; the average of their estimates is by 10%.

The Congressional Budget Office also estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add 0.9% to U.S. GDP next year largely because it allows companies to immediately deduct capital expenditures from their taxes—spurring a huge round of corporate spending. 

With all that fresh money on the horizon, it’s clear why markets have shrugged off their worries about AI and Bitcoin. The only shock will be if the S&P fails to hit a new all-time high by the end of the year.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% this morning. The last session closed up 0.3%. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.33%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.19%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.18%. 
  • Bitcoin was flat at $93K.



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