Business
A $400 million lawsuit against UBS is designed to punish banks who throw employees to the wolves
Published
4 weeks agoon
By
Jace Porter
In August 2015, former UBS banker Tom Hayes sat in a London courtroom after being found guilty of eight counts of conspiracy to defraud, for his involvement in the Libor interest-rate rigging scandal. That day, he would be sentenced to 14 years in prison, the longest white-collar sentence in British history. Packed in the prison bag he never thought he would need was Amanda Knox’s book Waiting To Be Heard. He read the memoir in segregation, but it wasn’t until his conviction was overturned in July of this year, after he spent five and a half years in some of Britain’s highest security prisons, that the title truly resonated with him. Now, Hayes is seeking justice for himself—against his former employer.
On October 23, Hayes filed a $400 million lawsuit against UBS in Connecticut state court for allegedly wrongly casting him as the “evil mastermind” responsible for Libor rate manipulation to protect senior executives and avoid substantial regulatory sanctions and prosecution. The Swiss bank paid $1.5 billion to settle various U.S., U.K., and Swiss regulatory penalties in 2012 when Hayes was criminally charged. The former banker also filed a duplicate case against UBS in a New York state court.
Prior to Hayes’ incarceration, he was a highly successful trader. According to the civil complaint, he was positioned to earn at least $5-10 million annually for years to come. His finances now, however, have been decimated. Aside from spending more than $1 million on his criminal defense, Hayes’s assets were frozen by prosecutors and he was debanked. Blackballed from the financial industry and fired from non-finance jobs due to negative press reports, Hayes alleges he has been unable to secure even basic employment due to his reputation.
Beyond the monetary losses, Hayes’ legal battles and imprisonment also cost him his marriage and harmed his health. While in prison, Hayes told Fortune, one of his cellmates attempted to kill him and he required protection from fellow inmates to remain safe. During his trial and in prison, he also struggled with depression and intense emotional distress. And, four years ago, Hayes was formally diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, which the complaint alleges was triggered by the stress endured throughout his prosecution and imprisonment.
“It’s important for people to recognize that this is not about me getting rich,” Hayes told Fortune. “It’s about stopping corporations screwing over their employees, and the only language that they speak is money.”
CHRIS RATCLIFFE—Bloomberg/Getty Images
Hayes isn’t alone in his legal crusade. From London to Frankfurt, a wave of former bankers who claim they were thrown under the bus for institutional misconduct are now suing their ex-employers for hundreds of millions in damages. Most recently, six former Deutsche Bank bankers filed lawsuits against the German lender—after being acquitted of charges related to a derivatives scandal involving Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena—claiming the bank’s internal investigation wrongfully blamed them for institutional misconduct. And, last year, two ex-Deutsche Bank traders charged with Libor-rigging settled with the German bank in similar lawsuits for an undisclosed amount.
“The bank is aware that five individuals are raising claims in the UK in the context of this matter, and that a claim has been filed in Frankfurt—as we disclosed in our annual report. Deutsche Bank considers the claims to be entirely without merit and will defend itself against them robustly,” a Deutsche Bank spokesperson told Fortune.
The cases represent an emerging trend that experts say could reshape how corporations handle internal investigations and cooperate with prosecutors—or force them to finally hold senior management accountable if they orchestrate the wrongful criminal prosecutions of their own staff.
UBS declined a Fortune request for comment.
The system built to be rigged
To understand why Hayes and others are fighting back, it’s essential to grasp what Libor was, why its manipulation mattered, and why Hayes’s case was taken so seriously by the courts.
The London Interbank Offered Rate, calculated by averaging submissions from major international banks, served as the primary benchmark for short-term interest rates globally. Those rates eventually filtered through into the property mortgage market—where the Great Financial Crisis of 2007 originated.
Every morning, a panel of major banks would submit an estimate of what interest rate it would have to pay if it borrowed money from other banks. Thomson Reuters would then discard the four highest and four lowest submissions and average the remaining eight to calculate Libor for that day.
The system was designed as an honor system where banks would report their borrowing costs. But, as the former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, the Libor system was “structurally flawed” because banks exposed to changes in Libor through derivatives contracts had a significant incentive to favorably skew survey responses, and there was little risk in doing so.
Libor-rigging was deeply embedded across the entire banking industry as a normalized practice. Between 2005 and 2011, traders at UBS, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, Rabobank, Citibank, and other major institutions routinely adjusted their Libor submissions to benefit their trading positions—sometimes at the behest of their supervisors, and sometimes to protect their banks’ reputations during the 2008 financial crisis.
The manipulation was often overt. Thousands of emails and messages between bankers and senior managers subpoenaed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) featured blatant boasting about and collusion to manipulate rates. For Hayes, this included a November 2006 chat during which he told a UBS Libor submitter he “really need high 6m [6-month] fixes till Thursday.” The submitter responded: “yep we on the case there . . . will def[initely] be on the high side.”
When regulators finally came looking for someone to blame for the financial crisis, they cracked down hard on banks involved in setting Libor. UBS was fined $1.5 billion in December 2012. Deutsche Bank paid $2.5 billion in 2015—the largest penalty in CFTC history at the time. Barclays, RBS, Rabobank, Citibank, and others collectively brought total industry fines to over $9 billion.

DREW ANGERER—Getty Images
The institutions settled and moved on, but individual traders faced criminal prosecution. By 2020, 38 individuals had been charged in the U.S. and Europe, with 20 convicted. Hayes, arrested on December 11, 2012, in the U.K.—one week before UBS settled with regulators—was the first to face a jury trial.
Hayes’ arrest coincided with the U.S. Department of Justice unsealing federal criminal charges against him and fellow UBS trader Roger Darin. The indictment accused both men of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, and price-fixing violations.
The criminal complaint laid out by then Attorney General Eric Holder described Hayes, then 33 years old, as the “kingpin” of a three-year campaign to manipulate global interest rates. Holder, however, also made the controversial decision not to criminally indict UBS itself, instead entering a non-prosecution agreement. This decision, then Criminal Division chief Lanny Breuer said, was based on concerns about “collateral consequences” to the financial system—effectively prioritizing systemic financial stability over holding an individual institution criminally responsible. The DOJ did criminally charge UBS’s Japanese subsidiary, UBS Securities Japan Co. Ltd., which agreed to plead guilty to felony wire fraud.
Holder did not respond to a Fortune request for comment.
The U.S. charges against Hayes were ultimately dropped in January 2022 without him ever being tried or convicted. Abandoning the indictment came after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit overturned the convictions of two other traders who had been prosecuted on similar Libor manipulation charges in federal court in New York in 2018. This appellate decision essentially dismantled the legal theory that prosecutors had been using to pursue Libor traders.
The perfect fall guy
Hayes’ lawsuit paints a damning picture of how UBS allegedly planned his downfall. According to the complaint, the bank “gained control” over the DOJ and CFTC’s inquiries into its own alleged misconduct by hiring the law firm Gibson Dunn to conduct an internal investigation, which would then be provided to authorities. That investigation, Hayes’ complaint claims, was “fundamentally flawed” and designed to identify him as the ultimate scapegoat.
Gibson Dunn did not respond to a Fortune request for comment.
“They call it a cleansing service,” Hayes told Fortune. “Basically the third party counsel is paid tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars by these banks who will go in, and identify who’s going to go to jail. They’ll work out with the prosecutors how high up the chain they’ll go. They’ll discuss how much fines they’ll pay.”
Through this process, the complaint alleges, UBS and Gibson Dunn identified Hayes as collateral to be served up to prosecutors.
Several factors made Hayes an ideal candidate for this role. He worked in Japan, allowing UBS’s Japanese subsidiary—not its US or Swiss entities—to plead guilty to wire fraud while the parent company secured a non-prosecution agreement. He was relatively young, autistic (diagnosed with Asperger’s syndrome just before his U.K. trial, but referred to on the trading floor as “Rain Man” by his colleagues), and hadn’t attended elite schools. Most importantly, he left an extensive paper trail.
Hayes admits he sent emails and made recorded phone calls requesting Libor adjustments on an almost daily basis—more than 2,000 documented requests, according to U.K. regulators. “Either I’m the stupidest fraudster ever or I didn’t think I was doing anything wrong,” he told Fortune.
His autism may have also contributed to this lack of discretion. “Being on the spectrum gives me a curious sense of loyalty. I always sought approval from my managers,” Hayes said. “There’s no way I would have done anything to let my bosses down. There’s no way I would have done anything that they didn’t want me to do.”
But Hayes insists senior management not only knew about his activities—they encouraged them. His lawsuit claims UBS had “a company policy to set the rate in alignment with commercial interests.” At least 45 UBS staff were involved in Libor manipulation, with at least 2,000 documented requests for inappropriate submissions—plus “an unquantifiable number of oral requests”—according to the U.K. Financial Services Authority. Between November 2006 and August 2009, Hayes or his colleagues attempted to manipulate Yen Libor on 335 out of 738 trading days. The bank had even given traders formal responsibility for making Libor submissions, creating a direct conflict of interest.
“We operated in a system that was really grossly conflicted and really poorly set up and really open to conflicts of interest, and us traders, who were basically trained within an inch of our lives to find edge wherever we can, to operate in this system that basically wasn’t regulated, had no rules,” Hayes explained.

MATTHEW LLOYD—Bloomberg/Getty Images
Eugene Soltes, a business ethics professor at Harvard Business School who has studied white-collar prosecutions extensively, confirmed that Hayes’ paper trail made him especially vulnerable in a way that could shield more senior executives. “The challenge is that you need evidence,” Soltes told Fortune. “What is the evidence people actually look for? It’s chat messages, emails. In a lot of organizations you have the senior-most people—a lot of it is oral and verbal conversations, things that are understood as norms and driven by incentives that are set up. When push comes to shove, it’s much harder to get the kind of evidence that we would use in a legal system to hold the senior-most people accountable”.
According to Brandon Garrett, a Duke Law professor and author of Too Big to Jail, it’s because those higher up at corporations leave less of a footprint or evidence of intent, that they are more difficult to hold accountable. “It is typically lower or middle-level employees who get prosecuted and convicted,” he told Fortune.
The government bargain
The dynamic Garrett and Soltes describe creates the perfect conditions for potential scapegoating. When prosecutors investigate corporate crime, they face a stark choice: spend years and enormous resources (which they often don’t have) trying to build cases against senior executives with little direct evidence, or accept the corporation’s cooperation—along with massive fines—in exchange for prosecuting lower-level employees whose fingerprints are all over the misconduct.
Arthur Wilmarth, a law professor at George Washington University who has studied banking regulation for decades, explained that authorities want to collect fines from corporations and administrations want to demonstrate they are tough on crime—and to accomplish these goals they lean on firms with prosecutorial threats. “There’s a ton of pressure on UBS, because even if UBS thinks internally they didn’t do anything wrong, if UBS gets indicted, they are effectively out of business, because they lose all their banking licenses upon being indicted,” he told Fortune.
Growing pressures following the 2008 financial crisis to see individual accountability, Soltes said, has also, by expansion, pressured organizations to “identify culpable individuals when misconduct does occur.”
According to Wilmarth, this means determining who is expendable. “Hayes was useful when they were doing all the Libor rigging, but those days are over,” He said. (Libor was phased out in 2021.)
Miriam Baer, the dean and at California Western School of Law who specializes in corporate criminal law, acknowledges this creates a troubling dynamic, especially given prosecutors take into account whether or not businesses involved in crimes cooperated with authorities.
“Organizations are incentivized by the law to come forward with information of wrongdoing if they want to demonstrate that they’ve detected wrongdoing, that they’re attempting to change,” she told Fortune.
The result, Baer says, is that “the people who feel the greatest accountability legally aren’t always the people who we, the public, would invest with moral responsibility for the ultimate outcome.”
A path forward
For Hayes, the lawsuit isn’t about money—though $400 million would represent one of the largest individual claims against a bank by a former employee. “One thing I learned in prison is money is just stuff, and stuff doesn’t make you happy,” he said.
Instead, Hayes insists the case is about deterrence and accountability. “What is a deterrent for a corporation? Does 10 million matter to UBS? No. Does 100 million matter to UBS? No. Does 400 million matter to shareholders? Maybe a little bit,” he said.
Jonathan Harris, his attorney, has similar motivations. “My primary goal is to get some measure of satisfaction for Tom Hayes,” he told Fortune. “But my secondary goal is … I hate it when companies do this. And I would like them, when they are sitting around the table and deciding to point the finger at some autistic guy in Japan, that they think twice.”
Hayes said he is eager to take the stand. But UBS will likely file motions to dismiss the case or move it from Connecticut to another venue.
But Hayes has already forced a conversation about corporate accountability that prosecutors and regulators have tried to avoid for more than a decade. As Wilmarth put it: “Whatever you might think the culpability of the individuals was or might have been, exposing the fact that what they did was absolutely approved and blessed and encouraged by their superiors, that’s a public service.”
But ameliorating banking culture and compliance, and greater institutional accountability, faces an upward battle, according to Soltes. “The challenge that we face right now when it comes to corporate and individual level accountability, is that there’s a lot of things that people can do that are sketchy and, frankly, undesirable from our economic and financial well being as a society, but because of how the system is set up, and our rules and our means of accountability are simply things that you’re not going to be held, either criminally or civilly accountable or sanctioned for,” he told Fortune.
Until that happens, the wave of lawsuits by disgraced bankers may be the only mechanism forcing institutions to reckon with their role in creating the conditions for widespread misconduct—and then sacrificing individuals to protect the executive suite.
Hayes, for his part, seems at peace with whatever comes next. After finding Christianity in prison and welcoming a daughter he named Themi (derived from Themis, the Greek goddess of justice), he’s learned to live with uncertainty. “The one thing I have to believe in, whether it’s worked for me or not, is justice,” he said.
In November 2025, Hayes will travel to Washington, D.C., where his legal case has been nominated for legal case of the year—an award ceremony ironically sponsored by Gibson Dunn, the very law firm he alleges helped UBS scapegoat him. Despite fears he could still be arrested, Hayes is determined to attend.
“I have to confront the thing I’m so scared of,” he explained. “If I can go to Washington and leave Washington, then I’m not going to be afraid of going anywhere. I’ll be fine for the rest of my life.”
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Business
A Thanksgiving dealmaking sprint helped Netflix win Warner Bros.
Published
18 minutes agoon
December 6, 2025By
Jace Porter
The Netflix Inc. plans that clinched the deal for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. started to shape up around Thanksgiving.
A deadline was looming: Warner Bros. had asked bidders, which also included Paramount Skydance Corp. and Comcast Corp., to have their latest proposals and contracts in by the Monday after the holiday, following a round about a week earlier. The suitors were told to put their best foot forward.
While most Americans were watching football and feasting on turkey, Netflix executives and advisers hunkered down to finalize a binding offer and a $59 billion bridge loan from banks, one of the biggest of its kind. That gave the streaming company the ammunition to make a mostly cash-and-stock bid that helped it prevail over Comcast and David Ellison’s Paramount, according to people familiar with the matter.
The resulting $72 billion deal, announced Friday, is set to bring about a seismic shift in the entertainment business — if it can survive intense regulatory scrutiny and a potential fight from Paramount. This account of Netflix’s surprise victory in the biggest M&A auction of the year is based on interviews with half a dozen people involved in negotiations. They asked not to be identified because the details are confidential.
The sales process had kicked off with several unsolicited bids from Paramount Skydance, itself a newly formed company after a merger this year orchestrated by Ellison. He’s now the studio’s chief executive officer and controlling shareholder, with backing from his father, Oracle Corp. billionaire Larry Ellison.
Paramount’s early move gave it a head start in the bidding process weeks before other would-be buyers got access to information. But the post-Thanksgiving deadline for second-round bids became a turning point by giving Netflix time to catch up and assemble the documents it needed, some of the people said. And since the streaming giant was bred in the fast-paced ethos of Silicon Valley, it could move quickly.
When the binding bids arrived that Monday, Netflix’s offer emerged as superior, the people said.
One issue was the Warner Bros. camp had doubts about how Paramount would pay for the company, which owns sprawling Hollywood studios, the HBO network and a vast film and TV library. Paramount’s offer included financing from Apollo Global Management Inc. and several Middle Eastern funds, and it had conveyed that its bid was fully backstopped by the Ellisons. Still, Warner Bros. executives were privately concerned about the certainty of the financing, people familiar with the matter said.
Representatives for Netflix and Warner Bros. declined to comment.
‘Noble’ vs ‘Prince’
In the weeks leading up to the finale, Warner Bros. advisers set up war rooms at various hotels in midtown Manhattan. A core group holed up at the Loews Regency, which has long been a convening spot for the city’s movers and shakers.
Inside Warner Bros., the situation was known as “Project Sterling.” The company called itself by the code name “Wonder.” The team referred to Netflix as “Noble,” while Paramount was “Prince” and Comcast was “Charm.”
At Netflix, Chief Financial Officer Spencer Neumann served as the point man while corporate development head Devorah Bertucci organized people day-to-day. Chief Legal Officer David Hyman and Spencer Wang, vice president of finance, investor relations and corporate development, also were key architects, with all of them reporting into co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters.
The contours of the deal were shaped in a way befitting of a tech company: mostly over video chat or phone rather than in person. Virtual war rooms were set up. While strategizing or discussing diligence on Zoom, participants would raise virtual hands or make suggestions over chat rather than unmuting and slowing down the meeting. Google Docs were used to review and edit documents together in real time.
Talks heated up this week, with Warner Bros. advisers in continuous dialogue with the bidders and negotiating contract language and value. Comcast said it would merge its NBCUniversal division with Warner Bros. Paramount offered to more than double its proposed breakup fee to $5 billion to sweeten its deal and outshine rivals.
In the end, Warner Bros. determined Netflix had the best offer and the company was the most flexible on key terms. On Wednesday, Paramount lobbed an aggressively worded letter to Warner Bros. board saying the sales process was “tainted.” It also identified what it saw as regulatory risks in the Netflix proposal, one sign that a winning outcome was slipping away for Paramount.
Netflix found out Thursday evening New York time that it had won. Executives and advisers were assembled on a video call when they got the official word, sparking a moment of jubilation before everyone snapped into action. By 10:25 p.m., Bloomberg News broke the news that a deal was imminent.
Even Sarandos made it sound like the ending was a twist on a conference call with investors. “I know some of you are surprised that we’re making this acquisition, and I certainly understand why,” he said. “Over the years, we have been known to be builders, not buyers.”
Regardless of whether Paramount reemerges to try and top the bid, Netflix will have work ahead of it. It has agreed to pay a $5.8 billion breakup fee to Warner Bros. if the transaction fails on regulatory grounds. The company also has to digest its largest acquisition ever.
“It’s going to be a lot of hard work,” co-CEO Peters said on the conference call. “We’re not experts at doing large-scale M&A, but we’ve done a lot of things historically that we didn’t know how to do.”
Business
‘Its own research shows they encourage addiction’: Highest court in Mass. hears case about Instagram, Facebook effect on kids
Published
49 minutes agoon
December 6, 2025By
Jace Porter
Massachusetts’ highest court heard oral arguments Friday in the state’s lawsuit arguing that Meta designed features on Facebook and Instagram to make them addictive to young users.
The lawsuit, filed in 2024 by Attorney General Andrea Campbell, alleges that Meta did this to make a profit and that its actions affected hundreds of thousands of teenagers in Massachusetts who use the social media platforms.
“We are making claims based only on the tools that Meta has developed because its own research shows they encourage addiction to the platform in a variety of ways,” said State Solicitor David Kravitz, adding that the state’s claim has nothing to do the company’s algorithms or failure to moderate content.
Meta said Friday that it strongly disagrees with the allegations and is “confident the evidence will show our longstanding commitment to supporting young people.” Its attorney, Mark Mosier, argued in court that the lawsuit “would impose liabilities for performing traditional publishing functions” and that its actions are protected by the First Amendment.
“The Commonwealth would have a better chance of getting around the First Amendment if they alleged that the speech was false or fraudulent,” Mosier said. “But when they acknowledge that its truthful that brings it in the heart of the First Amendment.”
Several of the judges, though, seem to more concerned about Meta’s functions such as notifications than the content on its platforms.
“I didn’t understand the claims to be that Meta is relaying false information vis-a-vis the notifications but that it has created an algorithm of incessant notifications … designed so as to feed into the fear of missing out, fomo, that teenagers generally have,” Justice Dalila Wendland said. “That is the basis of the claim.”
Justice Scott Kafker challenged the notion that this was all about a choose to publish certain information by Meta.
“It’s not how to publish but how to attract you to the information,” he said. “It’s about how to attract the eyeballs. It’s indifferent the content, right. It doesn’t care if it’s Thomas Paine’s ‘Common Sense’ or nonsense. It’s totally focused on getting you to look at it.”
Meta is facing federal and state lawsuits claiming it knowingly designed features — such as constant notifications and the ability to scroll endlessly — that addict children.
In 2023, 33 states filed a joint lawsuit against the Menlo Park, California-based tech giant claiming that Meta routinely collects data on children under 13 without their parents’ consent, in violation of federal law. In addition, states including Massachusetts filed their own lawsuits in state courts over addictive features and other harms to children.
Newspaper reports, first by The Wall Street Journal in the fall of 2021, found that the company knew about the harms Instagram can cause teenagers — especially teen girls — when it comes to mental health and body image issues. One internal study cited 13.5% of teen girls saying Instagram makes thoughts of suicide worse and 17% of teen girls saying it makes eating disorders worse.
Critics say Meta hasn’t done enough to address concerns about teen safety and mental health on its platforms. A report from former employee and whistleblower Arturo Bejar and four nonprofit groups this year said Meta has chosen not to take “real steps” to address safety concerns, “opting instead for splashy headlines about new tools for parents and Instagram Teen Accounts for underage users.”
Meta said the report misrepresented its efforts on teen safety.
___
Associated Press reporter Barbara Ortutay in Oakland, California, contributed to this report.
Business
Quant who said passive era is ‘worse than Marxism’ doubles down
Published
1 hour agoon
December 6, 2025By
Jace Porter
Inigo Fraser Jenkins once warned that passive investing was worse for society than Marxism. Now he says even that provocative framing may prove too generous.
In his latest note, the AllianceBernstein strategist argues that the trillions of dollars pouring into index funds aren’t just tracking markets — they are distorting them. Big Tech’s dominance, he says, has been amplified by passive flows that reward size over substance. Investors are funding incumbents by default, steering more capital to the biggest names simply because they already dominate benchmarks.
He calls it a “dystopian symbiosis”: a feedback loop between index funds and platform giants like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. that concentrates power, stifles competition, and gives the illusion of safety. Unlike earlier market cycles driven by fundamentals or active conviction, today’s flows are automatic, often indifferent to risk.
Fraser Jenkins is hardly alone in sounding the alarm. But his latest critique has reignited a debate that’s grown harder to ignore. Just 10 companies now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value, with tech names driving an outsize share of 2025’s gains.
“Platform companies and a lack of active capital allocation both imply a less effective form of capitalism with diminished competition,” he wrote in a Friday note. “A concentrated market and high proportion of flows into cap weighted ‘passive’ indices leads to greater risks should recent trends reverse.”
While the emergence of behemoth companies might be reflective of more effective uses of technology, it could also be the result of failures of anti-trust policies, among other things, he argues. Artificial intelligence might intensify these issues and could lead to even greater concentrations of power among firms.
His note, titled “The Dystopian Symbiosis: Passive Investing and Platform Capitalism,” is formatted as a fictional dialog between three people who debate the topic. One of the characters goes as far as to argue that the present situation requires an active policy intervention — drawing comparisons to the breakup of Standard Oil at the start of the 20th century — to restore competition.
data-srcyload
In a provocative note titled “The Silent Road to Serfdom: Why Passive Investing is Worse Than Marxism” and written nearly a decade ago, Fraser Jenkins argued that the rise of index-tracking investing would lead to greater stock correlations, which would impede “the efficient allocation of capital.” His employer, AllianceBernstein, has continued to launch ETFs since the famous research was published, though its launches have been actively managed.
Other active managers have presented similar viewpoints — managers at Apollo Global Management last year said the hidden costs of the passive-investing juggernaut included higher volatility and lower liquidity.
There have been strong rebuttals to the critique: a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study showed the role of fundamentals remains an all-powerful driver for stock valuations; Citigroup Inc. found that active managers themselves exert a far bigger influence than their passive rivals on a stock’s performance relative to its industry.
“ETFs don’t ruin capitalism, they exemplify it,” said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst. “The competition and innovation are through the roof. That is capitalism in its finest form and the winner in that is the investor.”
Since Fraser Jenkins’s “Marxism” note, the passive juggernaut has only grown. Index-tracking ETFs, which have grown in popularity thanks to their ease of trading and relatively cheaper management fees, are often cited as one of the primary culprits in this debate. The segment has raked in $842 billion so far this year, compared with the $438 billion hauled in by actively managed funds, even as there are more active products than there are passive ones, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Of the more than $13 trillion that’s in ETFs overall, $11.8 trillion is parked in passive vehicles. The majority of ETF ownership is concentrated in low-cost index funds that have significantly reduced the cost for investors to access financial markets.
In Fraser Jenkins’s new note, one of his fictitious characters ask another what the “dystopian symbiosis” implies for investors.
“The passive index is riskier than it has been in the past,” the character answers. “The scale of the flows that have been disproportionately into passive cap-weighted funds with a high exposure to the mega cap companies implies the risk of a significant negative wealth effect if there is an upset to expectations for those large companies.”
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