As investors monitor crowd sizes at stores on Black Friday they will be shopping for a different kind of holiday deal: retailers that do well in a mixed economy characterised by high prices and limited shopping budgets. Along with retail powerhouse Walmart, off-price retailers such as TJX and Ross Stores are expected to draw some bargain hunters away from department stores like Macy’s and Kohls. Higher-end retailers like Ralph Lauren and Tapestry are expected to attract big-spenders but that is already reflected in their shares.
Retailers like Target aim to draw bargain shoppers this Black Friday – Reuters
Walmart is up about 21% year-to-date, while Ralph Lauren is up around 61% and Tapestry is up about 70%. Investors and analysts still watch store traffic for clues on consumer sentiment and preferences even though an increasing number of shoppers opt to order online from the couch, which has boosted Amazon.com and Walmart hugely in recent years. Amid persistent inflation and a slowing labour market, investors expect cautious spending from low- and middle-income households, while well-off consumers who have benefited from 2025’s stock market gains will pick up some of the spending slack.
“Whenever you have a bifurcated economy where some people are doing really well and others are not but everybody wants to spend, that just raises the stakes for all the retailers,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. She saw “stressed” shoppers before Thanksgiving at Walmart, which was “bending their pricing to allow people to buy what they need,” with a 10- and 5-pound potato sacks and a variety of turkey sizes.
Forrest said Walmart’s “eye-catching displays,” like a set Thanksgiving table marketing home goods or a decorated crib in the baby section, compared favourably to Target. While, in the past, Target store displays convinced shoppers to buy unplanned items, Forrest said they have “lost their merchandising mojo.” Last week, Walmart increased annual forecasts for the second time this year. Target reported a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly same-store sales as consumers pulled back spending on apparel and home decor.
“If you’re careful with your money you’re going to want the most bang for your buck. You’re going to go to the store where you think you could get that. You’re not going to go to a humdrum kind of shopping experience,” said Forrest. She expects stronger sales for TJX- owner of TJMaxx and HomeGoods- than at Macy’s and Kohls.
Kohl’s shares rallied 42.5% on Tuesday when it projected a smaller drop in sales and bigger profit for the year ahead. However, the company has reported same-store sales declines in the last 11 quarters.
David Swartz, senior analyst covering retailers at Morningstar, said investors have shown a preference in recent years for Ross Stores and TJX over Macy’s and Kohl’s, which have been, “hit hard by competition from the clearance off-price stores as well as Amazon and Walmart.”
And going more upmarket, Swartz sees Ralph Lauren, Ulta Beauty, and Tapestry doing well this season, but warned that increasing their already-rich valuations could be risky.
In contrast, Nike and LuLulemon Athletica have underperformed in recent years. While “they may not necessarily report great holiday periods,” Swartz points to low valuations, so “if things do get better, you could see the stocks go up quite a lot.”
He noted that some retailers kick off sales as early as October and some deepen discounts closer to Christmas or in the New Year, while some consumers buy all their gifts online. “You can’t judge the whole season’s sales just based on one day,” said Swartz.
Bokeh’s Forrest sees VF Corp, whose shares are down about 19% year-to-date, as a potential turnaround story while Urban Outfitters‘ namesake stores have not been doing as well as its Anthropologie chain.
With many consumers under pressure, Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat, will watch spending levels among higher-income shoppers. “If their spending falters, then we would have some trouble in the economy, she said.
Estee Lauder was sued by a self-described “disruptive” startup that accused the cosmetics giant of effectively putting it out of business by stealing technology to boost sales from jet-setting travellers in hotels.
Nomi has accused Estee Lauder of stealing its technology – Bloomberg
In a complaint filed on Friday night in Manhattan federal court, Nomi Beauty said Estee Lauder has been “driving literally billions in new revenue” to itself after abandoning contracts in 2018 and 2020, including means to determine consumers’ actual preferences for cosmetics instead of their stated preferences.
Nomi- the name is a homophone for “know me,” as in the customer- said its “secret sauce” was intended to help the parent of Clinique and MAC lipstick generate more revenue from luxury hotel duty-free shops and in-room purchases, and become less dependent on traditional retail stores. Rather than honour its contracts or follow through on discussions to purchase Nomi outright, Estee Lauder allegedly starved Nomi’s hotel partners of products, while rolling out competing programs in China, Costa Rica, Malaysia, the UK and the US.
These programs “rely on the very same trade secrets Nomi had been educating Lauder about for years,” the complaint said. Nomi is seeking unspecified compensatory, punitive, and triple damages. Estee Lauder did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“Nomi’s stolen innovations brought Estee Lauder into the information age, and Estee Lauder continues to profit from them wildly,” Nomi’s lawyer Matthew Schwartz said in an email. Both companies are based in New York.
Since last February, Estee Lauder has pursued a “Beauty Reimagined” strategy, including prestige launches and a streamlining of its supply chain, to revive sliding sales. The strategy also called for up to 7,000 job cuts.
Long reserved for women or military dress, brooches adorned men’s chests during Milan Fashion Week, a throwback to a bygone era but with jewellery now signalling individuality, not just status.
A brooch by Dolce & Gabbana – Aleksej Shelikhov- Facebook
From huge flowers or watch brooches at Dolce & Gabbana to pins at Armani, the bling passed from hands to jackets during the fall/winter 2026/2027 shows in the Italian city.
“I like these small details, people have to pay attention to them,” said reggaeton star Rauw Alejandro, in the front row at Prada.
Chinese buyer John Chen, 45, sported a gold brooch in the shape of a triangle, the Milanese brand’s logo, on a green sweater just below his neck. “I started wearing brooches about five years ago. I like to play with them” to personalise outfits, he told AFP.
In Armani’s refined yet relaxed collection, some men sported a tie pin on their jacket lapel, while male and female models wore matching sparkling brooches. At designer Rowen Rose, a large orange stone was used to fasten a green or yellow scarf to a matching sweater.
“It gives an extra touch. It’s a good accessory- it’s become very masculine,” said Fabio Annese, a 26-year-old Milanese interior designer sporting a heart-shaped brooch at Dolce & Gabbana.
Known for its extravagant style, D&G has been selling brooches for men since entering the jewellery world in 2015, and they are “still important in more formal collections,” a spokesperson said. Among their offerings are crosses, crowns, scarabs, and flowers in gold and embellished with diamonds, the last costing a cool 7,500 euros (around $8,800).
The trend is in many ways a return to the past. In Europe, until the 18th century, the “most important” jewellery was worn by men, explained Emanuela Scarpellini, professor of contemporary history at the University of Milan.
Wealthy and powerful men used it as a sign of their status, the glittering accessories often signalling membership of a noble family or a religious order, or military rank. It was only with the rise of the middle-classes and businessmen in the 19th century that came “the idea that men should dedicate themselves to work, with a more sober attitude,” Scarpellini said at the launch of a new Milan exhibition.
“The Gentlemen,” on show at the Palazzo Morando until September, reveals how men’s jewellery since then usually served a purpose, such as watches, cufflinks and tie pins. Nowadays “there’s a new freedom,” as with clothing, said exhibition curator Mara Cappelletti, a professor of jewellery history.
“There are fewer jewellery pieces with a function, and more with a freer choice,” she told AFP. “Many of the objects men wear today were not designed for a male audience,” she said, adding that many were vintage. “The brooch has never been so popular.”
Cappelletti noted that the trend was boosted by singers and actors wearing a lot of jewellery, noting a photograph of Italian singer Achille Lauro sporting a huge white gold and diamond sculpted piece on his chest, with matching earrings. All provided by the jeweller Damiani, which sponsors the pop star.
Global beauty business Sephora has announced a strategic, omni-channel partnership with Korean beauty and health retailer CJ Olive Young to bring a wide range of K Beauty products to its global customers.
CJ Olive Young aims to bring K Beauty to global shoppers – Olive Young
The partnership will debut this autumn with omni-channel partnerships set for the US, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, and Southeast Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand), Sephora announced in a press release on Tuesday. In 2027, the business will bring the tie-up to the Middle East, the UK, and Australia.
“Korean beauty is one of the most innovative, fastest growing, and desirable categories in beauty right now,” said Sephora’s global chief merchandising officer Priya Venkatesh in a press release. “Sephora was the first major retailer to debut K Beauty brands to North American consumers in 2010, and our portfolio has grown into a global business. We are thrilled to partner with leading Korean beauty retailer Olive Young, bringing their expertly curated assortment of Korean beauty brands to our beauty fans globally. Their differentiated assortment, coupled with Sephora’s unique point of view on the beauty shopping experience, will bring an unrivalled and inspiring offer for all beauty lovers who are keen to explore the most sought-after Korean beauty products.”
Sephora shoppers will be able to browse a dedicated zone curated by CJ Olive Young comprising popular Korean health and beauty brands. The business’ beauty advisor will also offer guidance and assistance to customers to help them find their desired products.
“We are pleased to enter this partnership with Sephora as we continue to advance our global expansion strategy,” said CJ Olive Young’s chief strategy officer Youngah Lee. “As global interest in K-beauty continues to accelerate, we see this collaboration as a meaningful opportunity to work together in expanding the reach of Korean brands in key international markets.”
Politics8 years ago