Experts are discussing the potential departure of North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, and Miami from the ACC to another conference.
The looming possibility of Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami departing in 2029 has sparked speculation about the ACC’s future. Yet unlike the Pac‑12, the ACC is built on deeper institutional alignment, stronger media markets, and a broader sports portfolio. With committed members like Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech, SMU, Syracuse, Louisville, and Boston College, the conference has the foundation to remain a Power Four player well into the next decade.
ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips Ready to Expand
With the Big 12 aggressively expanding in recent years, Phillips has signaled that the ACC will not sit idly by. He has stressed that the conference is prepared to add new schools to maintain strength and relevance. This proactive stance is designed to prevent the ACC from being weakened by departures, ensuring that the league remains a Power Four player.
Expansion Blueprint: USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn, Army, and Navy
The ACC’s resilience lies in smart expansion.
USF (Tampa Bay): Strong academics, commitment to raising the bar in athletics, and a brand new on campus stadium and major media market. Hosted many major events including Super Bowls, CFP Playoff Title Games, Men’s and Women’s Basketball Final Four.
Tulane (New Orleans): Academic pedigree, rising football profile, and a Gulf Coast market with national appeal. Like Tampa New Orleans is a big event town and like Tampa the ACC have options for their major events.
Memphis (Tennessee): Basketball tradition, football growth, and commercial ties across the Mid‑South.
UConn (Northeast): Elite basketball brand, vastly improved football program, and access to the New York City market for the big events.
Navy (Maryland): National prestige, Mid‑Atlantic market, and the iconic Army–Navy Game.
Army (New York): Historic brand, Northeast market reach, and national following.
Together, these programs provide geographic diversity, institutional strength, and market value that ensure the ACC remains viable—even if its current flagship programs depart.
Should FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami leave in 2029, the exit fees owed to the ACC would provide critical financial stability. Each team would owe the conference $111 million if they left in the 2028-2029 season, 2029-2030 season would cost them $93 million and 2030-2036 leaving the ACC is $75 million per exiting member.
These funds would help bridge the final six years of the ESPN media rights deal, ensuring the conference maintains competitive budgets and visibility. Also, each school being added would take either a reduced share or forego the fee entirely for the final six years of the deal.
By 2036, the ACC would be positioned to enter the open media market from a position of strength. A far cry from how the PAC 12 handled their media deal.
Setting the Stage for 2037: Apple and Beyond
Looking ahead, the ACC could align with Apple, led by Duke alum Tim Cook, to secure a groundbreaking streaming partnership likely to buy the ACC Network. Apple’s global reach would elevate ACC content, while traditional and emerging partners—CBS, NBC, Fox, Warner Discovery, The CW, Amazon, and YouTube—could provide hybrid broadcast‑streaming packages. This diversified approach ensures the ACC avoids the pitfalls that doomed the Pac‑12. These players want to stay together, and they have learned from the Pac -12 mistakes
Why Notre Dame Will Stay
A stable ACC with Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest, SMU, Duke, NC State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Louisville while adding USF, Memphis, Army, Navy, UConn, and Tulane, Notre Dame’s position as a football independent alongside full ACC membership in other sports becomes even more logical.
The Irish have deep historical ties with many of these programs. They’ve faced Pitt 74 times (Notre Dame leads 51–21–1), Navy 98 times (Notre Dame leads 82–13–1), and Army 52 times (Notre Dame leads 40–8–4), rivalries that stretch back over a century. The “Holy War” with Boston College has been played 28 times (Notre Dame leads 18–9), while the Irish have met Georgia Tech 38 times (Notre Dame leads 31–6–1). Out west, Notre Dame has squared off with Stanford 38 times (Notre Dame leads 23–14) and Cal 5 times (Notre Dame leads 5–0), and more recently, they split two meetings with USF (1–1).
This tapestry of rivalries and connections underscores why Notre Dame would remain independent in football yet thrive as an ACC member in other sports. The Irish’s national brand is built on independence, but their scheduling history shows natural alignment with ACC schools and new additions. Pitt, Navy, Army, Boston College, and Georgia Tech are long-standing rivals; Stanford and Cal add West Coast tradition; and USF represents a fresh Florida partnership. By staying independent in football while anchoring other sports in the ACC, Notre Dame preserves its national scheduling freedom while reinforcing historic and modern ties to ACC institutions.
Why the ACC Won’t Collapse Like the Pac‑12
Institutional alignment: Academic pedigree with Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Cal, and Stanford.
Media markets: Atlanta, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Boston, DC–Virginia corridor, Bay Area, plus new hubs in Tampa, New Orleans, Memphis, and New England.
NIL maturation: Rising programs have stabilized fundraising, narrowing the gap with traditional powers.
Scheduling continuity: Rivalries like UVA–VT, NC State–Wake, and Duke–BC remain intact while new cross‑market matchups add intrigue.
The ACC’s depth across football, basketball, and Olympic sports ensures it remains a strong, multi‑sport conference with national relevance—even in a post‑2029 landscape.
Final Thought’s
Unlike the Pac 12 Commissioner Phillips and members of the ACC have had a number of conversations about the “what if’s” should the Big Ten and the SEC were to come poaching. So, far the vast majority of members, many of them recall the breakup of the Big East have no interest in heading for the Big 12 because these schools understand that the PAC 12 members made a mistake, had they held together just one year later Turner Sports lost the NBA and had cash for college sports and with an Apple deal in place along with a TNT, TBS, truTV deal and maybe a CW deal as well they could have been still around. The members value the future together and are willing to wait out the ESPN deal rather than bolt for a few dollars more in the Big 12.
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.
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