NFL WEEK 11 MNF BETTING PREVIEW: DALLAS @ LAS VEGAS
DALLAS: (3-5-1) / (1-4 ROAD) vs. LAS VEGAS: (2-7) / (1-3 HOME)
VEGAS ODDS: DALLAS (-3 or -3 ½) ~ TOTAL: (50)
DALLAS (#4) OFFENSE: (121R-258P) vs. VEGAS (#15) DEF: (107R-215P)
VEGAS (#30) OFFENSE: (87R-185P) vs. DALLAS (#31) DEF: (143R/254P)
BAILOUT GAME OF WEEK MORE RUN FOR HILLS GAME OF WEEK!
The NFL usually does good work with the Thursday night and Monday Night Football games but this one they botched pretty good and it’s worse due to they had already punished us with the Jets playing last Thursday night. Now we get lucky again with two of the worst Defenses in the league facing off to close out Week 11. This article will be one of my hardest but let’s give it our best whirl.
DALLAS RETURNS FROM TOUGH BYE WEEK BUT RELOAD ON DEFENSE!
The “Bye” week is supposed to be a time to relax and regroup for the second half of the season but for Dallas it was nothing close to that as one of their top young players M. Kneeland committed suicide. As bad as things have gone for the Cowboys, this hard situation they’ve sadly been forced to endure will now likely happen again Monday night as they will likely regain those soul crushing thoughts once this game gets ready for kickoff. The good news for Cowboys fans is their second worst Defense will get some bigtime reinforcements with 4 very solid players heading into the starting lineup. There is really nowhere to go but up and I fully believe these 4 will at least make them no longer a whipping boy on Defense the rest of this season.
NOTHING HAS GONE RIGHT FOR THIS RAIDERS OFFENSE THIS YEAR!
Every team and their fans have high hopes when the new season starts and when you get a storied new Head Coach (P. Carroll) and a new QB (G. Smith) and then you pick a real bulldozer Running Back (A. Jeanty) with your early first round pick you have to feel like you have made major improvements and the team might just be able to make a Playoff push. You then win your opener on the Road against a very good Patriots team and you think “we got something here finally”! Sadly that was basically the high of this 2025 season as the Raiders have since lost 7 of their last 8 games with the only win over hapless Tennessee in a game they actually were atrocious on Offense (only gained 226 total yards) but were bailed out by the best Defensive effort all season long. Another long season of almost all misery for the Black and Silver fans.
DALLAS HAS BEEN FINE ON OFFENSE & SCORING POINTS NO PROBLEM!
For over a month the Cowboys had the (#1) Offense in the league and until their past 2 games the Offense was clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys have scored (40 or more) points 3x and they have scored 24 points or more 3 more games. By contrast the Raiders Offense has scored over 24 points just once the entire season and it took Overtime to garner those 29 points. Their big trade for QB Smith has turned into a gigantic bust as he leads the NFL in Interceptions with 12 and even with the solid draft pick of stud RB Jeanty they are only averaging (87) rushing yards per game (3rd lowest). The Offensive Line has been really bad as Smith has been sacked (27x) but a lot of those are also on Smith who looks like only a shell of his really solid past few seasons with Seattle. It’s really hard to win in this league when you score less than an unattractive Fat guy in a Night Club on a Saturday night.
BOTH HEAD COACHES VERY FAMILIAR WITH EACH OTHER!
Dallas new HC B. Schottenheimer was the O.C. under Raiders HC P. Carroll so it may be a little harder to fool one or the other here although Shottenheimer has so much more Offensive talent that it won’t matter what tendencies Carroll may be ready for.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF WEEK!
1). COWBOYS: 5 of their last 6 games have gone “OVER” the Total. 2). COWBOYS: Just (1-4) vs. losing teams their past 5 games in that spot. 3). RAIDERS: Have played 5 straight “UNDERS” on Monday Night TV games. 4). COWBOYS: Have gone “OVER” 11 of their L/12 games following their “BYE”.
NOTE: The Raiders will have no Home Field advantage as there will likely be 75% Cowboys fans attending this one in Las Vegas.
GARY’S FINAL PASS:
I won’t be in action for this basement Bowl but I will say a few things as I know most of you reading don’t care if gerbils are playing as you will surely be making a bet on this game. Again stats matter a ton but for Dallas and their second worst Defense this will be a totally different unit as they will be adding 4 players I feel all will definitely give a marked improvement. Dallas also has two WR’s averaging over 80 yards per game (Pickens-85, Lamb-82). Dallas by far has the better QB.
The one thing the Raiders have working for them is they have been very close with a 10 point win and two soul crushing 1 point losses in their last 3 Home games. The Raiders though have only gotten 4 sacks on the opposing QB the past 3 weeks combined and the one thing that would completely keep me off betting them even with those 3 close Home games of late is they have zero running game as they have gained just 68, 25, 57 and 74 rushing yards the past 4 games and they will have to be able to have solid ball control (they have had their Offense on the field only 74 minutes and the Defense on the field 116 minutes the past 2 games) to be able to keep Dak Prescott and his elite weapons off the field.
Lastly, asking a team like the Raiders who have only scored 7, 0, 6 and 20 points their past 4 games to outscore Dallas is delusional. I simply don’t know where the Cowboys heads will be after losing a teammate to suicide of all things and then adding 4 new guys (really 2 brand new but 2 from injury) it’s a lot to expect they come on board and gel immediately. I had a nice winner last night here with my Prop Pick of Eagles AJ Brown “OVER 5 RECEPTIONS” but sadly I couldn’t find anything solid for this game. It’s OK to pass and live to see another day. Please never lose more than you can afford. Have a great new week ahead everybody and if you can please say a prayer for my 87 year old Mom who will have full shoulder replacement surgery on Wednesday. Thanks.
FINAL NOTE: You can follow Vegas Pro Bettor Gary Greene on X at: GARYGREENEWINS — Follow me and DM me any questions you might have.
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.
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