If a student can’t pass Florida’s third grade math test, what chance will they have in fourth grade? And what happens when they’re facing more advanced math? The evidence suggests that early math gaps don’t simply disappear with age—they persist and grow.

According to the latest FAST scores, just 63% of third graders met Florida’s grade-level standards in math. Even fewer reached level 4 or 5, the threshold the state uses to signal a student is “likely to excel” in the next grade or course.

Worse, the percentage of students meeting state standards was higher in third grade than any other grade. By high school, the picture comes into even sharper clarity: only 60% of students passed the state’s Algebra exam last year, and just 55% passed Geometry.

Florida students still look relatively strong compared to their peers nationally. On the most recent NAEP, Florida’s fourth graders scored six points above the national average in math. While that’s encouraging, national comparisons won’t help the thousands of Florida students who fall behind early and never catch up.

Moreover, math skills matter enormously. Early math scores are strongly predictive of high school achievement and graduation. Eventually, students who struggle in math face a narrower set of opportunities in higher education and the workforce. They are also at a disadvantage in subjects like science, technology and economics, which increasingly require strong quantitative reasoning skills. In today’s economy, where data and numeracy shape everything from personal finance to civic participation, math really is a gatekeeper subject.

What explains Florida’s troubling trajectory? One possibility is that the state’s expectations are simply lower in the early grades. If the bar is set too low, then younger students may appear to be doing well, only to stumble later when expectations rise. This would be concerning but also fixable, since it points to a misalignment in the state’s testing and standards system.

A more worrisome explanation, however, is that students who fail to master basic number sense and problem-solving strategies in the early grades face compounding difficulties as math grows more complex. Without mastering a solid foundation of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division, harder skills like fractions and algebraic reasoning become more difficult.

The good news is that these problems are not inevitable. Research points to promising interventions, ranging from expanding access to high-quality curricular materials, providing educators with aligned professional development and leveraging math coaches to help improve day-to-day instruction.

One key variable is simply the amount of time that kids spend learning math. In countries with the highest math scores, students receive an average of 60 minutes per day of math instruction (or 300 per week). In Florida, time on math varies considerably across districts, with Polk Brevard, Seminole and Miami-Dade all requiring at least 300 minutes of math per week. Meanwhile, districts like Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Lee County, Pinellas, Osceola, and Volusia don’t set a time requirement for math.

Schools should also make sure students are mastering the skills they learn in class. Through low-stakes homework assignments, teachers can identify and address gaps before they widen, allowing them to intervene early rather than waiting until a child fails a state test.

Schools must also make sure all students are mastering the skills they’ll need to be successful. In the early 2000s, Florida led the country in raising math scores. But it wasn’t just about the average or gains at the top — its lowest-performing students were making the biggest gains.

That progress has reversed in recent years. On the national tests, Florida’s fourth grade math scores peaked in 2017. The median student lost five points in the wake of COVID-19, only to bounce back a bit from there. Meanwhile, the highest-performing 10% of students are actually doing better than ever. But the scores at the bottom fell by 10 points between 2017 and 2022, only to fall another point by 2024. To regain its national leadership, Florida will have to address these widening skills gaps.

In other words, it’s wishful thinking to assume that early math gaps will magically close on their own. Florida leaders must prioritize early interventions if they want more students to graduate prepared for college, careers and citizenship. By strengthening early instruction and holding itself accountable for steady progress, Florida can ensure that today’s third graders are not tomorrow’s unprepared high schoolers. Florida can lead the way to make sure that all kids are “math kids.”

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Chad Aldeman is a nationally recognized expert on education policy, including school finance; teacher preparation, evaluation and compensation; and state standards, assessment and accountability. Chad has worked at the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University, Bellwether Education and the U.S. Department of Education during the Obama administration. He serves as an adviser to the Collaborative for Student Success, a national nonprofit focused on elevating strong K-12 practices and policies, and writes for its EduProgress.org platform.