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CoreWeave earnings: Data-center operator posts $56 billion in contracted future revenue, but revenue guidance drops amid bubble fears

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CoreWeave needed a lot of things to go right on Monday as it released third-quarter financial results, and one of the most critical was showing that its contracted future revenues could hit a $50 billion target Wall Street had set as a benchmark for the AI data-center and infrastructure operator. 

In its announcement, CoreWeave confirmed it nearly doubled its revenue backlog, which includes “remaining performance obligations” (RPOs) and other amounts it estimates will be recognized as revenue, to $55.6 billion, up from $30 billion the previous quarter. The surging backlog, which represents future revenues from customers, was driven by contracts with Meta, OpenAI, and French AI startup Poolside. Earnings and revenue, meanwhile, both beat analysts’ consensus estimates.

The company also reported an increase in the debt on its balance sheet, however, and it revised its full-year revenue guidance downward. Following its earnings release and call with analysts, the stock dropped 6% in after-hours trading.

Some investors have trained a gimlet eye on CoreWeave as more skeptics kick the tires of the booming AI trade and the concurrent infrastructure buildout. Concerns about CoreWeave, which some see as a potential canary-like indicator of weakness in the AI ramp-up, and about the AI build-out in general have sent the stock on a journey that has seen it tumble more than 30% from mid-August highs.

The downward revision in revenue guidance reflected delays in construction of some of CoreWeave’s data centers. “While we are experiencing relentless demand for our platform, data center developers across the industry are also enduring unprecedented pressure across supply chains,” CEO Michael Intrator said during the analysts’ call. “In our case, we are affected by temporary delays related to a third-party data-center developer who is behind schedule.”

Chief financial officer Nitin Agrawal offered full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion, down slightly from the guidance Intrator offered on the second-quarter earnings call, of between $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion. The customer impacted by the delay agreed to adjust the delivery schedule and extend the expiration date, Intrator said, which means CoreWeave will maintain the total value of the original contract.

Agrawal said the company’s 2025 capex spending would be between $12 billion to $14 billion, down significantly from the $20 billion to $23 billion Intrator forecast last quarter. However, Agrawal said CoreWeave expects 2026 capex to soar.

“Given the significant growth in our backlog and continued insatiable demand for our cloud services, we expect capex in 2026 to be well in excess of double that of 2025,” Agrawal said.

Revenue leaps, losses narrow, debt increases

CoreWeave reported revenues of $1.4 billion for the quarter, up from $584 million in the same quarter last year and beat analysts’ estimates. Profitability, at least by traditional GAAP measures, remains elusive. CoreWeave reported a net loss of $110 million, although it was an improvement over its $359.8 million loss in the third quarter last year and also better than analysts expected.

Adjusted net loss, which shows financial performance without extraordinary items, was $41 million for the quarter compared to the same quarter last year when it was break-even, Agrawal said. Adjusted EBITDA, which shows earnings without certain one-time expenses, were $838 million in the third quarter, compared to $379 million in Q3 2024. 

Operating income, a metric that shows profit from core businesses, fell to $51.9 million, compared to the same quarter last year when it was $117.1 million. Operating margins shrunk to 4% from 20%. 

Meanwhile, adjusted operating income, which shows a different view on core business performance, was $217 million for the third quarter, compared to $125 million in the third quarter of 2024, said Agrawal, the CFO. CoreWeave’s third quarter adjusted operating margin was 16%, due to higher revenues, lower costs, and the timing of data center deliveries from third parties.

 While Monday was just this side of positive for CoreWeave, analysts who are bearish on the AI cloud computing company remain leery of its finances. They see the company as at risk of being overwhelmed by the significant financial commitments it has taken on to build out data centers, which currently look disproportionately large compared to its revenues and cash flow. Based on its latest earnings release, CoreWeave has $9.7 billion in bills due within the next 12 months on its balance sheet, and a total of $14 billion in current and longer-term debt. Last quarter, those figures were $7.6 billion and $11 billion, respectively. 

CoreWeave also has $34 billion in scheduled lease payments on contracts that will commence between now and 2028. Interest expense reached $311 million for the quarter, nearly triple the figure from the year-earlier period, of $104 million. 

CoreWeave bulls, meanwhile, remain confident that revenues from the company’s book of contracts will eventually far outstrip its debt obligations. During the past three months, CoreWeave has announced a spate of significant deals, booking a $14.2 billion deal to provide Meta with computing capacity and an agreement with Poolside for a data center with 40,000 of Nvidia’s coveted GPUs.



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‘Its own research shows they encourage addiction’: Highest court in Mass. hears case about Instagram, Facebook effect on kids

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Massachusetts’ highest court heard oral arguments Friday in the state’s lawsuit arguing that Meta designed features on Facebook and Instagram to make them addictive to young users.

The lawsuit, filed in 2024 by Attorney General Andrea Campbell, alleges that Meta did this to make a profit and that its actions affected hundreds of thousands of teenagers in Massachusetts who use the social media platforms.

“We are making claims based only on the tools that Meta has developed because its own research shows they encourage addiction to the platform in a variety of ways,” said State Solicitor David Kravitz, adding that the state’s claim has nothing to do the company’s algorithms or failure to moderate content.

Meta said Friday that it strongly disagrees with the allegations and is “confident the evidence will show our longstanding commitment to supporting young people.” Its attorney, Mark Mosier, argued in court that the lawsuit “would impose liabilities for performing traditional publishing functions” and that its actions are protected by the First Amendment.

“The Commonwealth would have a better chance of getting around the First Amendment if they alleged that the speech was false or fraudulent,” Mosier said. “But when they acknowledge that its truthful that brings it in the heart of the First Amendment.”

Several of the judges, though, seem to more concerned about Meta’s functions such as notifications than the content on its platforms.

“I didn’t understand the claims to be that Meta is relaying false information vis-a-vis the notifications but that it has created an algorithm of incessant notifications … designed so as to feed into the fear of missing out, fomo, that teenagers generally have,” Justice Dalila Wendland said. “That is the basis of the claim.”

Justice Scott Kafker challenged the notion that this was all about a choose to publish certain information by Meta.

“It’s not how to publish but how to attract you to the information,” he said. “It’s about how to attract the eyeballs. It’s indifferent the content, right. It doesn’t care if it’s Thomas Paine’s ‘Common Sense’ or nonsense. It’s totally focused on getting you to look at it.”

Meta is facing federal and state lawsuits claiming it knowingly designed features — such as constant notifications and the ability to scroll endlessly — that addict children.

In 2023, 33 states filed a joint lawsuit against the Menlo Park, California-based tech giant claiming that Meta routinely collects data on children under 13 without their parents’ consent, in violation of federal law. In addition, states including Massachusetts filed their own lawsuits in state courts over addictive features and other harms to children.

Newspaper reports, first by The Wall Street Journal in the fall of 2021, found that the company knew about the harms Instagram can cause teenagers — especially teen girls — when it comes to mental health and body image issues. One internal study cited 13.5% of teen girls saying Instagram makes thoughts of suicide worse and 17% of teen girls saying it makes eating disorders worse.

Critics say Meta hasn’t done enough to address concerns about teen safety and mental health on its platforms. A report from former employee and whistleblower Arturo Bejar and four nonprofit groups this year said Meta has chosen not to take “real steps” to address safety concerns, “opting instead for splashy headlines about new tools for parents and Instagram Teen Accounts for underage users.”

Meta said the report misrepresented its efforts on teen safety.

___

Associated Press reporter Barbara Ortutay in Oakland, California, contributed to this report.



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Quant who said passive era is ‘worse than Marxism’ doubles down

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Inigo Fraser Jenkins once warned that passive investing was worse for society than Marxism. Now he says even that provocative framing may prove too generous.

In his latest note, the AllianceBernstein strategist argues that the trillions of dollars pouring into index funds aren’t just tracking markets — they are distorting them. Big Tech’s dominance, he says, has been amplified by passive flows that reward size over substance. Investors are funding incumbents by default, steering more capital to the biggest names simply because they already dominate benchmarks.

He calls it a “dystopian symbiosis”: a feedback loop between index funds and platform giants like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. that concentrates power, stifles competition, and gives the illusion of safety. Unlike earlier market cycles driven by fundamentals or active conviction, today’s flows are automatic, often indifferent to risk.

Fraser Jenkins is hardly alone in sounding the alarm. But his latest critique has reignited a debate that’s grown harder to ignore. Just 10 companies now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value, with tech names driving an outsize share of 2025’s gains.

“Platform companies and a lack of active capital allocation both imply a less effective form of capitalism with diminished competition,” he wrote in a Friday note. “A concentrated market and high proportion of flows into cap weighted ‘passive’ indices leads to greater risks should recent trends reverse.” 

While the emergence of behemoth companies might be reflective of more effective uses of technology, it could also be the result of failures of anti-trust policies, among other things, he argues. Artificial intelligence might intensify these issues and could lead to even greater concentrations of power among firms. 

His note, titled “The Dystopian Symbiosis: Passive Investing and Platform Capitalism,” is formatted as a fictional dialog between three people who debate the topic. One of the characters goes as far as to argue that the present situation requires an active policy intervention — drawing comparisons to the breakup of Standard Oil at the start of the 20th century — to restore competition.

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In a provocative note titled “The Silent Road to Serfdom: Why Passive Investing is Worse Than Marxism” and written nearly a decade ago, Fraser Jenkins argued that the rise of index-tracking investing would lead to greater stock correlations, which would impede “the efficient allocation of capital.” His employer, AllianceBernstein, has continued to launch ETFs since the famous research was published, though its launches have been actively managed. 

Other active managers have presented similar viewpoints — managers at Apollo Global Management last year said the hidden costs of the passive-investing juggernaut included higher volatility and lower liquidity. 

There have been strong rebuttals to the critique: a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study showed the role of fundamentals remains an all-powerful driver for stock valuations; Citigroup Inc. found that active managers themselves exert a far bigger influence than their passive rivals on a stock’s performance relative to its industry.

“ETFs don’t ruin capitalism, they exemplify it,” said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst. “The competition and innovation are through the roof. That is capitalism in its finest form and the winner in that is the investor.”

Since Fraser Jenkins’s “Marxism” note, the passive juggernaut has only grown. Index-tracking ETFs, which have grown in popularity thanks to their ease of trading and relatively cheaper management fees, are often cited as one of the primary culprits in this debate. The segment has raked in $842 billion so far this year, compared with the $438 billion hauled in by actively managed funds, even as there are more active products than there are passive ones, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Of the more than $13 trillion that’s in ETFs overall, $11.8 trillion is parked in passive vehicles. The majority of ETF ownership is concentrated in low-cost index funds that have significantly reduced the cost for investors to access financial markets. 

In Fraser Jenkins’s new note, one of his fictitious characters ask another what the “dystopian symbiosis” implies for investors. 

“The passive index is riskier than it has been in the past,” the character answers. “The scale of the flows that have been disproportionately into passive cap-weighted funds with a high exposure to the mega cap companies implies the risk of a significant negative wealth effect if there is an upset to expectations for those large companies.”



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Why the timing was right for Salesforce’s $8 billion acquisition of Informatica — and for the opportunities ahead

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The must-haves for building a market-leading business include vision, talent, culture, product innovation and customer focus. But what’s the secret to success with a merger or acquisition? 

I was asked about this in the wake of Salesforce’s recently completed $8 billion acquisition of Informatica. In part, I believe that people are paying attention because deal-making is up in 2025. M&A volume reached $2.2 trillion in the first half of the year, a 27% increase compared to a year ago, according to JP Morgan. Notably, 72% of that volume involved deals greater than $1 billion. 

There will be thousands of mergers and acquisitions in the United States this year across industries and involving companies of all sizes. It’s not unusual for startups to position themselves to be snapped up. But Informatica, founded in 1993, didn’t fit that mold. We have been building, delivering, supporting and partnering for many years. Much of the value we bring to Salesforce and its customers is our long-earned experience and expertise in enterprise data management. 

Although, in other respects, a “legacy” software company like ours — founded well before cloud computing was mainstream — and early-stage startups aren’t so different. We all must move fast and differentiate. And established vendors and growth-oriented startups have a few things in common when it comes to M&A, as well. 

First and foremost is a need to ensure that the strategies of the two companies involved are in alignment. That seems obvious, but it’s easier said than done. Are their tech stacks based on open protocols and standards? Are they cloud-native by design? And, now more than ever, are they both AI-powered and AI-enabling? All of these came together in the case of Salesforce and Informatica, including our shared belief in agentic AI as the next major breakthrough in business technology.

Don’t take your foot off the gas

In the days after the acquisition was completed, I was asked during a media interview if good luck was a factor in bringing together these two tech industry stalwarts. Replace good luck with good timing, and the answer is a resounding, “Yes!”

As more businesses pursue the productivity and other benefits of agentic AI, they require high-quality data to be successful. These are two areas where Salesforce and Informatica excel, respectively. And the agentic AI opportunity — estimated to grow to $155 billion by 2030 — is here and now. So the timing of the acquisition was perfect. 

Tremendous effort goes into keeping an organization on track, leading up to an acquisition and then seeing it through to a smooth and successful completion. In the few months between the announcement of Salesforce’s intent to acquire Informatica and the close, we announced new partnerships and customer engagements and a fall product release that included autonomous AI agents, MCP servers and more. 

In other words, there’s no easing into the new future. We must maintain the pace of business because the competitive environment and our customers require it. That’s true whether you’re a small, venture-funded organization or, like us, an established firm with thousands of employees and customers. Going forward we plan to keep doing what we do best: help organizations connect, manage and unify their AI data. 

Out with the old, in with the new

It’s wrong to think of an acquisition as an end game. It’s a new chapter. 

Business leaders and employees in many organizations have demonstrated time and again that they are quite good at adapting to an ever-changing competitive landscape. A few years ago, we undertook a company-wide shift from on-premises software to cloud-first. There was short-term disruption but long-term advantage. It’s important to develop an organizational mindset that thrives on change and transformation, so when the time comes, you’re ready for these big steps. 

So, even as we take pride in all that we accomplished to get to this point, we now begin to take on a fresh identity as part of a larger whole. It’s an opportunity to engage new colleagues and flourish professionally. And importantly, customers will be the beneficiaries of these new collaborations and synergies. On the day Informatica was welcomed into the Salesforce family and ecosystem, I shared my feeling that “the best is yet to come.” That’s my North Star and one I recommend to every business leader forging ahead into an M&A evolution — because the truest measure of success ultimately will be what we accomplish next.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.



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