Rep. Josie Tomkow has officially thrown her name into the hat for the Senate District 14 Special Election to replace former Sen. Jay Collins, who is now serving as Lieutenant Governor.
She enters the race with prominent backing from U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee; state Reps. Lawrence McClure, the House budget chief, Danny Alvarez, Traci Koster and Michael Owen; Sheriffs Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, Grady Judd of Polk County and Chris Nocco of Pasco County; and Hillsborough County Commissioner Christine Miller.
Tomkow also begins her Senate campaign with $3 million cash on hand, sources tell Florida Politics.
Tomkow is the second prominent Republican to join the race, following Department of Business and Professional Regulation Secretary Melanie Griffin entering the race earlier Friday.
A third Republican, Amaro Lionheart, is also filed, though is not expected to present a threat to the more notable GOP officials now in the race. The Special Primary is set for Jan. 13.
As of right now there will be a Special General Election, to be held March 24. One Democrat, Brian Nathan, has also filed for the race.
The seat became open after Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped Collins to be his Lieutenant Governor in August.
Tomkow had been rumored to be among the GOP’s top picks to replace Collins. She’s currently facing term limits in her House District 51 seat, making a bid for the upper chamber a logical next step in her political career.
Over the past several years, Tomkow has proven herself to be a quiet force in the House. As a cattle rancher, she has provided strong representation for agriculture communities and she remains a key member of Speaker Daniel Perez’s leadership team, helping shape numerous legislative packages beyond just her own bills.
With Perez still holding another year in his leadership tenure, his backing would all but guarantee plenty of cash to keep the seat for the GOP, and friends in high places to help with other campaign needs.
SD 14 favors Republicans slightly, with Republicans controlling nearly 39% of the electorate. Democrats account for just under 32% of district voters, while independents make up more than 29% of the electorate.
However, SD 14 has historically been a swing district.
Collins was first elected to the Senate in 2022, flipping the seat red after former Sen. Janet Cruz had flipped it blue just four years before.
But even without a registration advantage, political winds in Florida have been blowing to the right for some time, with historic gains in races even in areas, such as Hillsborough County, that had been trending more to the left.
The year Cruz lost to Collins, the vote margin was about 10 percentage points. Worse, at the time, Democrats had a voter registration advantage, albeit slight at just 2 percentage points.
Still, Democrats may now be emboldened following election results across the country this week that overwhelmingly favored their party. Democrats won Governor’s races in both Virginia and New Jersey, while two Democrats were victorious and posted big overperformances in statewide races in Georgia, among other races.
A competitive Primary, paired with Democrats itching for a legislative flip, likely means an expensive and high-profile race over the Winter holidays.