BRONCOS LOOK TO MAKE IT 7 STRAIGHT WINS OVER HAPLESS VEGAS!
It’s not a pretty matchup for a Prime Time TV game this week as we have one team that has lost 6 of its last 7 games and the other team red-hot on a 6 game winning streak. One team looks like a serious Super Bowl contender and the other is looking at picking in the top 3 in next year’s Draft.
The Raiders Offense is as bad as it gets and now they play their first game since trading their best WR (J.Meyers). It’s clearly not been the season Raiders fans hoped for when bringing in long-time winning HC Pete Carroll.
THE DENVER DEFENSE ARE MAKING HISTORY IN SACK DEPARTMENT!
The Broncos as a team through 9 games are (+31) in Sacks Differential and that is the biggest number through 9 games in NFL History. The Defense is easily (#1) with (40) Sacks thus far and the Offense has allowed QB Bo Nix to be sacked only (9x) which also leads the league.
The strange part about the Broncos’ mega impressive (40) sacks is it hasn’t led them to more turnovers forced, as they have only 3 turnovers forced during this 6 game win streak (all 3 interceptions with a bagel grabbing a fumble recovery).
Meanwhile, Vegas is second worst in the league in pressure rate, and their top Pass Rusher Maxx Crosby is at his lowest pressure rate of his career. The lack of pressure has led the Black and Silver Defense to only (3) interceptions the past 7 games. Six of their 16 sacks this season came in one game vs. the worst OL/Offense in the NFL (Titans). They have 1 sack or no sacks in 5 of their last 6 games.
THE ROAD HAS NOT BEEN KIND TO THE 2025 RAIDERS LAST 3 ROADIES!
Vegas has lost its last 3 Road games by 17, 34 and 31 points. Their last Road game is one of the worst all-time games ever played by any team as they only gained (25) rushing yards and (70) passing yards at Kansas City.
The worst part was the Offense was only on the field for (18) minutes as they got shutout (31-0). Overall, the Raiders are the 3rd worst scoring team in the league, so they almost always need the best game possible from the Defensive side of the ball to have any chance to win.
DENVER IS #3 RUSHING THE BALL & RAIDERS ARE THIRD WORST!
If you can’t run the ball, the opposing Defense can send extra pass rushers having no fear you can beat them in that department, and that has led Vegas QB Geno Smith to throw (11) Interceptions (most in the NFL).
Now he must face the best Pass Rush Defense in the league, so it will take a heroic effort by Smith tonight to pull off a huge road Upset.
Denver runs the ball for a very impressive (134) yards per game, keeping QB Nix in a great spot and rarely pressured thanks to a Top 3 Offensive Line that has allowed Nix to be sacked a league-low (9x).
Nix has been sacked only twice the past 3 games, and the other 6 games he’s been sacked only once or zero times. Nix has thrown only (6) interceptions so far all season.
Again, two teams on total opposite ends of the spectrum in the most important categories.
COULD “TIRED LEGS” FINALLY CATCH UP TO THE BRONCOS TONITE?
The schedule makers weren’t overly kind to the Broncos as they will be playing a 10th straight game without a “Bye” week thus far and, of course, now playing this 10th game on a short week.
What makes this worse is the past two weeks the Broncos Defense has been on the field a much too high (69) total minutes, so I’d be a little extra worried that the Defense could be a bit tired here and also without its top Defensive player CB Patrick Surtain, that leaves them a little shorthanded.
The good news would be the Raiders Defense could also be facing the “Tired Legs” syndrome as they have been on the field a staggering (85) minutes the past 2 games and now travel to the hardest place they will play all season in the high altitude of Denver.
The whole world is screaming bet the “UNDER” but over my 36 year betting career I’ve learned you must always be wary with the “Tired Legs” stat.
TOP TRENDS TO WATCH FOR THIS GAME:
1). DENVER BRONCOS: (8-2) ATS last 10 games as a Home Favorite. 2). VEGAS RAIDERS: (1-4) ATS last 5 games vs. winning teams. 3). DENVER-VEGAS COMBINED THIS YEAR: (6 “OVERS” – 11 “UNDERS”).
TOP FANTASY PROP BETS TO WATCH IN THIS PRIME TV MATCHUP:
1). VEGAS TIGHT END BROCK BOWERS: TOTAL CATCHES: (7 or more) = (+$103)
Note: Last week Bowers had (12) catches for (127) yards and (3) TD’s. It was his first game back after missing (3) games with a knee injury. Clearly his knee is fine now and what a gigantic difference he makes to the lineup as the Raiders average (126) total yards per game more with Bowers in the lineup.
Last week vs. Man to Man coverage Bowers scored 3 TD’s on just (4) targets. When he faced zone coverage he crushed the Jaguars there too with 8 catches in just 9 targets and (81) receiving yards.
Denver will be forced to use their LB’s to cover Bowers with stud CB Surtain (he played Bowers last year in both matchups) out for this contest.
BOWERS TO SCORE A TD: YES (+165) Note: With top WR Meyers now gone, the #1 target for Raiders QB Smith will be Bowers, and he likely will get force fed the ball inside the 10 yard line.
2). DENVER BRONCOS QB BO NIX: TOTAL YARDS RUSHING: (20 ½) Note: Nix has rushed for over 20 ½ yards 5 of his last 7 games.
GARY’S FINAL PASS/PREDICTION PREVIEW OF THIS GAME:
So far this season we have seen more teams win by 11 points or more than we’ve seen teams win by 1-7 points. The Vegas Betting Line is (-9) and would look on paper and also the way both come into this game like another blowout win this year over any type of close game decided by a TD or less.
I understand the Raiders going for 2 points to win in Overtime last week as a Tie did them no good. It’s a huge carry-over lift when you go for 2 and make it and win the game. It’s a huge letdown when you miss and now you know your Playoff chances are toast.
It’s hard to gauge this Broncos team as they sputter along for 3 quarters every week before becoming The Hulk and scoring a league best (96) fourth quarter points (overall 43% of all their scoring this season). Broncos QB Nix has (7) TD’s and only (1) interception and a rock solid (105.3) QB Rating in the fourth quarter.
The huge hope for Raiders fans is one of the few things they do excel at is holding opponents down in the scoring department in the 4th quarter. So far they’ve allowed only (46) fourth quarter points (3rd fewest) and must be dominant here tonight to slow the Broncos Late Game MAGIC.
Denver swept the Raiders last season winning by double digits both games (16 and 10 point wins). Denver sits atop the AFC West in first place for the first time in 11 years this far into a season. They have a 2 game lead on KC and to me are the most underrated team outside Seattle in the league.
They don’t have many superstars but the overall roster talent is loaded. The Raiders overall roster is garbage and this team is 10 good draft picks from sniffing being a contender.
The Raiders drafted stud RB A. Jeanty but so far he’s made no difference at all to the running game. The Broncos Defense is (#2) allowing the fewest yards after contact (0.6 yards) so they simply do Not allow any big rushing plays to occur.
The Raiders were expecting tons of Jeanty carries to be big gainers as he is tough to bring down and gets huge yards after first contact. It’s hard to side with any struggling team as you will go broke doing that and I’ve seen nothing of this Raiders team to warrant a bet with my money.
I normally would side with Denver in this spot as the high altitude is always a huge factor in the 4th quarter (when their Magic seems to happen as well this season), but this is their 10th game with no “Bye” and their Defense has been on the field way too much for my liking the past 2 games and now a short week won’t help their tired legs one bit. Hence the huge advantage is lost this time around.
I will PASS this game and leave it to the folks who MUST bet every game and see if this Broncos team can actually light the fire before the fourth quarter arrives, as they won’t play many worse Defenses the rest of this season.
Enjoy the game and please Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. It’s ok to pass betting on national TV games and wait to place bets where your wager actually has solid value on your side.
Note: You can get all Gary’s Football Betting Magazine stats at GARYWINS.COM — they have everything you need to handicap the NFL card and save you hours of research.
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.
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