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UPS CFO on Amazon pullback and driving a growth strategy

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Good morning. UPS continues to lean into a strategy positioning it for long-term growth—one that required shrinking its decades-long partnership with Amazon.

The package-delivery giant (No. 47 on the Fortune 500) beat Wall Street expectations for the third quarter, reporting on Tuesday $21.4 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $1.74, both well above forecasts. It projects about $24 billion in Q4 revenue, signaling momentum despite a choppy economy. UPS stock was up about 8% at market close.

Refocusing the business

Brian Dykes, CFO of UPS since July 2024, first joined the company as an intern in 1999. I spoke with Dykes about strategy and his front-row perspective on the company’s evolution as a public business.

“We’re transforming our U.S. operations to focus on the market segments where we can add the most value,” Dykes told me. That means shifting away from low-return, capital-intensive volume and doubling down on higher-margin areas like small and midsized businesses, health care logistics, and B2B delivery.

The recent UPS decision to halve its Amazon delivery volume by late 2026—after nearly 30 years of partnership—marks a major strategic shift. “I’ve worked with Amazon for over a decade,” Dykes said. “Over time, our strategies diverged, which caused us to step back and ask where we truly add value.”

Amazon built fulfillment centers optimized for short-haul, last-mile delivery, while the UPS network is designed for long-haul and complex logistics. Amazon will remain a key customer in areas where UPS adds value—like returns and international services, he said.

Even as UPS winds down some Amazon volume, the share it continues to handle has grown, Dykes noted. “Amazon is so large—it’s not like the average customer,” he said.

As part of this realignment, UPS cut about 34,000 operational positions in 2025, largely through attrition and targeted buyouts. Most cuts affected part-time roles, though the company also offered voluntary packages to drivers, Dykes said. As part of its turnaround strategy, the company also closed operations at 93 facilities and eliminated 14,000 management jobs.

Does he think UPS is ready for the holiday season? “Peak season is like our Super Bowl,” Dykes said. Because UPS is handling less of Amazon’s volume, it doesn’t need as much extra capacity or as many seasonal hires, he said. UPS expects a 20% volume increase from Q3 to Q4—roughly 4 million additional packages a day—consistent with recent years, Dykes said.

Health care as a growth engine

In our conversation about strategy, Dykes noted that UPS’s health care focus predates the pandemic. He helped build this vertical through targeted acquisitions, citing cold chain logistics (a temperature-controlled supply chain), quality assurance, and regulatory oversight as differentiators, and leveraging automation and AI for efficiency.
 
“Since 2016, we’ve grown that business from kind of zero to a $10 billion business across UPS,” he said. Health care customers stay longer, grow faster, and the margins are higher, Dykes said, which he believes is a winning formula—even through economic or tariff disruptions.

I asked Dykes about his strategic work partnership with Carol Tomé, who has served as UPS CEO since 2020, and was previously CFO of Home Depot for nearly two decades.

Dykes said he benefits from Tomé’s leadership because “she pushes our entire leadership team to be better.”

“Part of me taking the job,” he added, “was the understanding that sometimes I’d have to be the one to push back—and we have that healthy tension. But at the same time, she’s made me a much better executive than I was when I started.”

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

***Upcoming Event: Join us for our next Emerging CFO webinar, Optimizing for a Human-Machine Workforce, presented in partnership with Workday, on Nov. 13 from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET.

We’ll explore how leading CFOs are rethinking the future of work in the age of agentic AI—including when to deploy AI agents to accelerate automation, how to balance ROI tradeoffs between human and digital talent, and the upskilling strategies CFOs are applying to optimize their workforces for the future.

You can register here. Email us at CFOCollaborative@Fortune.com with any questions.

Leaderboard

Adam S. Elinoff was appointed CFO of Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: A), effective November 17. Elinoff has over two decades of experience in corporate finance, investment relations, and business transformation. He joins the company from Amgen, where he advanced through a series of finance, strategy and transformation leadership roles over a total of 19 years, most recently serving as vice president of finance and treasurer.

Kathryn (Katie) Eskandarian was appointed CFO onPhase, a financial automation and payments provider. Eskandarian brings more than two decades of leadership in finance and operations. Before joining onPhase, Eskandarian served as CFO at Visual Lease, where she built the financial and operational frameworks. Earlier in her career, she held senior finance roles at iCIMS and Geller & Company. 

Big Deal

OpenAI, originally a nonprofit, is moving toward a for-profit structure through recapitalization and an expanded partnership with Microsoft. On Tuesday, OpenAI announced that Microsoft supports the formation of a public benefit corporation (PBC) and the recapitalization plan. 

Following this move, Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI Group PBC valued at about $135 billion, representing all owners including employees, investors, and the OpenAI Foundation. Previously, excluding recent funding rounds, Microsoft’s stake was 32.5% in the for-profit entity. The restructuring converts OpenAI’s for-profit division into a public benefit corporation that can issue equity and provides shareholders a greater voice in governance.

Going deeper

The 2025 Fortune 500 Europe list was released this morning. Europe’s largest company, German automotive manufacturer Volkswagen (founded in 1937), ranks No. 1.

Total revenue for the 500 rose 2.5% to $14.9 trillion, and market capitalization climbed 13.7% to $15.9 trillion. Profits, however, slipped 5.1% to $978.2 billion.

The top three sectors by revenue—finance (107 companies, $3.5 trillion), energy (71 companies, $3 trillion), and motor vehicles and parts (23 companies, $1.4 trillion)—are all being reshaped by digital technology and, in the case of energy, renewables. Yet the dominant players remain well-established incumbents rather than new disruptors.

The highest-ranking newcomer in finance is Italy’s CDP Group (No. 122, founded in 1850). The top pure-play renewables firm, wind-turbine manufacturer Vestas (No. 226), was founded in 1945.

Overheard

“The Hollywood model of work—specialized teams assembling for specific projects, then dissolving and reconfiguring for new ones—is a refreshing alternative to the rigid corporate structures inherited from the industrial era. For decades, this fluid approach seemed impractical for most businesses. Now, it is becoming feasible as AI handles the logistical complexities and knowledge management that once required permanent bureaucracies.”

—Ravi Kumar S, the CEO of Cognizant, writes in a Fortune opinion piece titled, “The Hollywood blueprint holds the key to reshaping organizations in the age of AI.”



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Quant who said passive era is ‘worse than Marxism’ doubles down

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Inigo Fraser Jenkins once warned that passive investing was worse for society than Marxism. Now he says even that provocative framing may prove too generous.

In his latest note, the AllianceBernstein strategist argues that the trillions of dollars pouring into index funds aren’t just tracking markets — they are distorting them. Big Tech’s dominance, he says, has been amplified by passive flows that reward size over substance. Investors are funding incumbents by default, steering more capital to the biggest names simply because they already dominate benchmarks.

He calls it a “dystopian symbiosis”: a feedback loop between index funds and platform giants like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. that concentrates power, stifles competition, and gives the illusion of safety. Unlike earlier market cycles driven by fundamentals or active conviction, today’s flows are automatic, often indifferent to risk.

Fraser Jenkins is hardly alone in sounding the alarm. But his latest critique has reignited a debate that’s grown harder to ignore. Just 10 companies now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value, with tech names driving an outsize share of 2025’s gains.

“Platform companies and a lack of active capital allocation both imply a less effective form of capitalism with diminished competition,” he wrote in a Friday note. “A concentrated market and high proportion of flows into cap weighted ‘passive’ indices leads to greater risks should recent trends reverse.” 

While the emergence of behemoth companies might be reflective of more effective uses of technology, it could also be the result of failures of anti-trust policies, among other things, he argues. Artificial intelligence might intensify these issues and could lead to even greater concentrations of power among firms. 

His note, titled “The Dystopian Symbiosis: Passive Investing and Platform Capitalism,” is formatted as a fictional dialog between three people who debate the topic. One of the characters goes as far as to argue that the present situation requires an active policy intervention — drawing comparisons to the breakup of Standard Oil at the start of the 20th century — to restore competition.

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In a provocative note titled “The Silent Road to Serfdom: Why Passive Investing is Worse Than Marxism” and written nearly a decade ago, Fraser Jenkins argued that the rise of index-tracking investing would lead to greater stock correlations, which would impede “the efficient allocation of capital.” His employer, AllianceBernstein, has continued to launch ETFs since the famous research was published, though its launches have been actively managed. 

Other active managers have presented similar viewpoints — managers at Apollo Global Management last year said the hidden costs of the passive-investing juggernaut included higher volatility and lower liquidity. 

There have been strong rebuttals to the critique: a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study showed the role of fundamentals remains an all-powerful driver for stock valuations; Citigroup Inc. found that active managers themselves exert a far bigger influence than their passive rivals on a stock’s performance relative to its industry.

“ETFs don’t ruin capitalism, they exemplify it,” said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst. “The competition and innovation are through the roof. That is capitalism in its finest form and the winner in that is the investor.”

Since Fraser Jenkins’s “Marxism” note, the passive juggernaut has only grown. Index-tracking ETFs, which have grown in popularity thanks to their ease of trading and relatively cheaper management fees, are often cited as one of the primary culprits in this debate. The segment has raked in $842 billion so far this year, compared with the $438 billion hauled in by actively managed funds, even as there are more active products than there are passive ones, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Of the more than $13 trillion that’s in ETFs overall, $11.8 trillion is parked in passive vehicles. The majority of ETF ownership is concentrated in low-cost index funds that have significantly reduced the cost for investors to access financial markets. 

In Fraser Jenkins’s new note, one of his fictitious characters ask another what the “dystopian symbiosis” implies for investors. 

“The passive index is riskier than it has been in the past,” the character answers. “The scale of the flows that have been disproportionately into passive cap-weighted funds with a high exposure to the mega cap companies implies the risk of a significant negative wealth effect if there is an upset to expectations for those large companies.”



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Why the timing was right for Salesforce’s $8 billion acquisition of Informatica — and for the opportunities ahead

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The must-haves for building a market-leading business include vision, talent, culture, product innovation and customer focus. But what’s the secret to success with a merger or acquisition? 

I was asked about this in the wake of Salesforce’s recently completed $8 billion acquisition of Informatica. In part, I believe that people are paying attention because deal-making is up in 2025. M&A volume reached $2.2 trillion in the first half of the year, a 27% increase compared to a year ago, according to JP Morgan. Notably, 72% of that volume involved deals greater than $1 billion. 

There will be thousands of mergers and acquisitions in the United States this year across industries and involving companies of all sizes. It’s not unusual for startups to position themselves to be snapped up. But Informatica, founded in 1993, didn’t fit that mold. We have been building, delivering, supporting and partnering for many years. Much of the value we bring to Salesforce and its customers is our long-earned experience and expertise in enterprise data management. 

Although, in other respects, a “legacy” software company like ours — founded well before cloud computing was mainstream — and early-stage startups aren’t so different. We all must move fast and differentiate. And established vendors and growth-oriented startups have a few things in common when it comes to M&A, as well. 

First and foremost is a need to ensure that the strategies of the two companies involved are in alignment. That seems obvious, but it’s easier said than done. Are their tech stacks based on open protocols and standards? Are they cloud-native by design? And, now more than ever, are they both AI-powered and AI-enabling? All of these came together in the case of Salesforce and Informatica, including our shared belief in agentic AI as the next major breakthrough in business technology.

Don’t take your foot off the gas

In the days after the acquisition was completed, I was asked during a media interview if good luck was a factor in bringing together these two tech industry stalwarts. Replace good luck with good timing, and the answer is a resounding, “Yes!”

As more businesses pursue the productivity and other benefits of agentic AI, they require high-quality data to be successful. These are two areas where Salesforce and Informatica excel, respectively. And the agentic AI opportunity — estimated to grow to $155 billion by 2030 — is here and now. So the timing of the acquisition was perfect. 

Tremendous effort goes into keeping an organization on track, leading up to an acquisition and then seeing it through to a smooth and successful completion. In the few months between the announcement of Salesforce’s intent to acquire Informatica and the close, we announced new partnerships and customer engagements and a fall product release that included autonomous AI agents, MCP servers and more. 

In other words, there’s no easing into the new future. We must maintain the pace of business because the competitive environment and our customers require it. That’s true whether you’re a small, venture-funded organization or, like us, an established firm with thousands of employees and customers. Going forward we plan to keep doing what we do best: help organizations connect, manage and unify their AI data. 

Out with the old, in with the new

It’s wrong to think of an acquisition as an end game. It’s a new chapter. 

Business leaders and employees in many organizations have demonstrated time and again that they are quite good at adapting to an ever-changing competitive landscape. A few years ago, we undertook a company-wide shift from on-premises software to cloud-first. There was short-term disruption but long-term advantage. It’s important to develop an organizational mindset that thrives on change and transformation, so when the time comes, you’re ready for these big steps. 

So, even as we take pride in all that we accomplished to get to this point, we now begin to take on a fresh identity as part of a larger whole. It’s an opportunity to engage new colleagues and flourish professionally. And importantly, customers will be the beneficiaries of these new collaborations and synergies. On the day Informatica was welcomed into the Salesforce family and ecosystem, I shared my feeling that “the best is yet to come.” That’s my North Star and one I recommend to every business leader forging ahead into an M&A evolution — because the truest measure of success ultimately will be what we accomplish next.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.



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The ‘Great Housing Reset’ is coming: Income growth will outpace home-price growth in 2026

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Homebuyers may experience a reprieve in 2026 as price normalization and an increase in home sales over the next year will take some pressure off the market—but don’t expect homebuying to be affordable in the short run for Gen Z and young families.

The “Great Housing Reset” will start next year, with income growth outpacing home-price growth for a prolonged period for the first time since the Great Recession era, according to a Redfin report released this week. 

The residential real estate brokerage sees mortgage rates in the low-6% range, down from down from the 2025 average of 6.6%; a median home sales price increase of just 1%, down from 2% this year; and monthly housing payments growth that will lag behind wage growth, which will remain steady at 4%.

These trends toward increased affordability will likely bring back some house hunters to the market, but many Gen Zers and young families will opt for nontraditional living situations, according to the report. 

More adult children will be living with their parents, as households continue to shift further away from a nuclear family structure, Redfin predicted.

“Picture a garage that’s converted into a second primary suite for adult children moving back in with their parents,” the report’s authors wrote. “Redfin agents in places like Los Angeles and Nashville say more homeowners are planning to tailor their homes to share with extended family.”

Gen Z and millennial homeownership rates plateaued last year, with no improvement expected. Just over one-quarter of Gen Zers owned their home in 2024, while the rate for millennial owners was 54.9% in the same year.

Meanwhile, about 6% of Americans who struggled to afford housing as of mid-2025 moved back in with their parents, while another 6% moved in with roommates. Both trends are expected to increase in 2026, according to the report.

Obstacles to home affordability 

Despite factors that could increase affordability for prospective homebuyers, C. Scott Schwefel, a real estate attorney at Shipman, Shaiken & Schwefel, LLC, told Fortune that income growth and home-price growth are just a few keys to sustainable homeownership. 

An improved income-to-price ratio is welcome, but unless tax bills stabilize, many households may not experience a net relief, Schwefel said.

“Prospective buyers need to recognize that affordability is not just price versus income…it’s price, mortgage rate and the annual bill for living in a place—and that bill includes property taxes,” he added.

In November, voters—especially young ones—showed lowering housing costs is their priority, the report said. But they also face high sale prices and mortgage rates, inflated insurance premiums, and potential utility costs hikes due to a data center construction boom that’s driving up energy bills. The report’s authors expect there to be a bipartisan push to help remedy the housing affordability crisis.

Still, an affordable housing market for first-time home buyers and young families still may be far away.

“The U.S. housing market should be considered moving from frozen to thawing,” Sergio Altomare, CEO of Hearthfire Holdings, a real estate private equity and development company, told Fortune

“Prices aren’t surging, but they’re no longer falling,” he added. “We are beginning to unlock some activity that’s been trapped for a couple of years.”



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