WASH. offense: (#13) – (149R-196P) vs. Kansas City defense: (#5) – (106R-175P)
Kansas City offense: (#5) – (123R-247P) vs. WASH. defense: (#27) – (126R-238P)
VEGAS ODDS: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-11 ½) ~ TOTAL: (48)
TEAM TOTALS: WASHINGTON (18 ½) ~ KC CHIEFS (30 ½)
MNF MATCHUP OF ONE TEAMS STOCK SOARING & OTHER CRASHING!
Before the season started this game looked like one of the most exciting Monday Night Football games on the schedule. Now it’s looking more like Mismatch City as the Commanders are (1-3) last 4 and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) last 5. One defense (KC) is coming off one of the greatest performances I’ve ever seen and the other (Wash.) can’t seem to stop the kids in the neighborhood.
To add to the prime time spotlight losing some lustre the Commanders star young QB Daniels will miss this game. Being a lifelong Commanders fan the second his team blew an almost lock win 2 weeks ago over the Bears before a terrible missed handoff and fumble that turned into a miracle comeback win for the Bears I sensed the same thing I sensed for the Bears last year when they had the win all but sealed until allowing a miracle “Hail Mary” pass that deflated the team to lose 9 straight games after that loss. Well the loss streak is only 2 right now but I am fearful that it will be 5 after the next 3 games as they face 3 loaded offenses.
CHIEFS offense NOW BACK AT FULL STRENGTH TOUGH TO STOP!
Since speedy WR Worthy returned the offense has soared to (#3) in points scored (31 ½) and (#1) in point per drive, total yards per game (412) and the OL pressure rate allowed to just (22.6%) leading superstar QB Mahomes to a (71%) pass completion rate and (283) passing yards per game and (11 TD’s-1 interception). Add in they returned stud WR Rice back 2 weeks ago from his 6 game suspension and you can see this offense is now clicking on all cylinders and looking like the same blueprint of the Chiefs Super Bowl teams. There are simply too many stars to cover and this will be the flailing Commanders defense toughest test thus far this season.
CAN THE COMMANDERS DEFENSE STOP THIS CHIEFS LOADED “O”?
Nobody can predict injuries but when you come into a season with the oldest roster in the league you should expect that injuries may hit you more than most younger rosters. For the Commanders the ages of the players who have gone down already isn’t just older players but also some young ones too. They lost solid off season pickup DE Wise early on and now the next 2 best defensive line starters are hurt (DE Armstrong – sacks and pressures leader is out) and beast run stuffer DT Payne (likely to miss this game with bad toe) from a defense already dead last in the NFL allowing (7.8) yards per pass attempt.
The Commanders simply can’t cover anyone right now as they’ve allowed an atrocious eight plays of (40) yards or more. I have pulled my hair out watching them be totally out of position and getting burned for big gainers but too many times committing pass interference penalties on pass plays over 15 yards.
WASHINGTON MUST GET THE RUN GAME GOING AGAIN AT ELITE LEVEL!
The Commanders seemed to have found a hidden gem at running back with 7th round pick Croskey-Merritt having some huge games and providing a big spark to their offense. But the past 2 games (both losses) he’s been held in check to just (3.1) yards per rush. If he fails to rush for at least 70 yards here I can’t fathom how they can pull the huge upset. The Commanders run game still leads the league with (5.4) yards per carry and they have been sensational in the red zone (78%) this season.
THE DROPOFF FROM DANIELS TO MARIOTTA ISN’T WHAT YOU’D THINK!
We all know how great young Commanders QB Daniels has been since he was drafted last season with the second pick but longtime veteran QB Mariota will start here and shockingly there is no real dropoff as he’s led the Commanders to (34) points per game whereas Daniels led offense has only been at (22.4) points per game. Mariota also rushed 10x this season for not too shabby 94 rush yards and he should get a huge boost as #1 and #1A wide outs T. McLaurin and Deebo Samuel return to give him more elite weapons to pass the ball to.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT AFFAIR:
1). KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last 4 years at Home = (11 “OVERS – 22 “UNDERS”). 2). KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Just (1-6) ATS last 7 MNF games. 3). WASH. COMMANDERS: (8-0-1) ATS last 9 MNF Road games vs. AFC. 4). KC CHIEFS: Have gone (3 OVERS – 8 UNDERS) on MNF last 11x. 5). NFL FAVORITES OF 6 POINTS OR MORE IN 3RD STRAIGHT HOME GAME: 6 “OVERS” – 0 “UNDERS” – 1 PUSH
FINAL PASS:
Well this is by far the worst matchup possible for the Commanders facing a now clicking on all cylinders Chiefs team that last week held the ball for a stunning (42-18) minutes Time of Possession advantage and an even more dominant (76-29) Total Plays advantage. The Chiefs defense is the most rested defense maybe all time heading to the midway game of the season as they have spent only 90 minutes total on the field the last 4 games combined and overall the Chiefs offense has been on the field (140-100) minutes differential the past 4 weeks as well.
It would be one of the biggest “Upsets” in years for this flatlining Commanders defense (3 turnovers forced all season) and (0) the past 2 games to derail a KC offense that has not lost one fumble the entire season and only 1 Mahomes interception the past 5 games combined and a Chiefs offense that has won 5 straight Time of Possession battles and a Chiefs OL that has allowed Mahomes to be sacked just 5x the past 4 games with a now down 3 likely DL starters and a secondary that simply can’t cover anyone. When the defense is playing badly it puts a ton of extra pressure on the offense to do more and in most cases the only “more” is turning the ball over more. Hence the Commanders have turned the ball over 5x in the last 2 games.
PICK
The only major red flag for the Chiefs is they may be down 2 of their 5 starting offensive linemen but truth be told the backups have more than held their own as they’ve now played meaningful snaps already this season. The Chiefs have too much in their favor right now and with such a rested defense and an offense clicking now at full strength with all their playmakers this is almost a sure KC win. The other red flag is the Chiefs play the Bills next week so a look ahead to that game is very possible knowing Washington comes in reeling and missing so many key starters.
I really never lay double digits in the NFL so I would look to Prop bets. For those who love big paydays you can grab Wash. WR D. Samuel to gain 15 rushing yards or more at (+480). I will be rooting for my boys but fully expect to go to bed in a sad mood. Enjoy the game and have a winning new week ahead.
@GARYGREENEWINS Go to: @GARYWINS for all his NFL stats pages Free!
Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour
Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.
We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.
Saturday Roundup Reminder
Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!
Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt) Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back. Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20
Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park
Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic) Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.
Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)
Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast. Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)
Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.
Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)
Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.
Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)
Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!
Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.
Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs
Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.
Final Notes
Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.
NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era
Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.
NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.
College Conference Dynamics
Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.
Risks for ACC Schools
Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.
Likely Outcomes
Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.
Bottom Line
The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.
The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.
Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction
Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!
Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs
Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.
Race 11 – The Clark Stakes The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.
Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar
Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.
Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.
Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.
Looking Ahead
Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.
Upcoming Coverage
On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.