It might be too bold to definitively declare a blue wave is coming to Florida this election cycle. But writing on the wall suggests, at the very least, it’s a strong possibility.

Examples abound.

Broadly, there have been 25 Democratic pickups across the nation this year. That’s not just the gross number either, it’s the net. Republicans haven’t flipped a single seat, according to The Downballot.

The crystal ball was already throwing sparks after stronger-than-expected results in Virginia and New Jersey in November. Also last month, Democrats in Georgia crushed Republicans in two statewide races for the state’s public service commission.

On Tuesday night, Georgia Democrats celebrated victory again, flipping a solidly Republican Georgia House seat in a Special Election. It wasn’t a blowout, but it wasn’t a nail-biter either — Eric Gisler defeated Republican Mack Guest IV by 2 percentage points.

But those 2 percentage points look positively huge when considering President Donald Trump won the district just last year by a staggering 12 percentage points.

Sure, you might say, those are other states. Florida is not like other states. After all, when Democrats overperformed in the 2022 Midterms across the U.S., Florida Republicans rode what amounted to a red tsunami that year.

But here’s the thing: For now at least, Florida is following suit.

I present to you exhibit A: Eileen Higgins. Not only did she flip the Miami Mayor’s Office, she will be the first registered Democrat to serve as Miami Mayor in 27 years.

And in a Special Election to replace the late Joe Casello, Democrat Rob Long landed 63% of the vote, outperforming Kamala Harris in House District 90 by 17 points.

Democrats also significantly improved on their 2024 performance in this Spring’s Special Elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, and enjoyed lopsided wins in two legislative Special Elections in September. Strategists on both sides of the aisle say the pattern reflects a real shift in enthusiasm, not a one-off fluke.

So what does this mean for 2026? It by no means guarantees victories at the top of the ticket, but it signals a potentially more competitive slate of statewide races than what we saw four years ago. And the Democratic Party is taking notice. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has added Florida to its “Target Map of 2026,” an announcement that came just after Higgins’ and Long’s victories.

DLCC President Heather Williams called this moment “a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally transform state legislative power.”

Democrats may be able to most reap the benefits in the place now responsible for creating the Florida-specific buzz: South Florida.

Last year, Republicans made Palm Beach County competitive for the first time in years, narrowing Harris’ margin of victory to just 0.7 percentage points. But subsequent election results have shown a strong reversion toward the county’s traditionally Democratic lean.

Republican state Rep. Anne Gerwig won House District 93 last year by just 356 votes — a razor-thin margin in what was otherwise a strong GOP year. Now, Democrat August Mangeney is looking to flip the seat, citing what he calls a “realignment of energy” among voters.

“Over the past few months, I’ve seen a clear shift in Democratic energy on the ground,” Mangeney said. “People who sat out in 2024 or felt disillusioned are showing up again, ready to fight for fair representation and a government that actually works for them.”

Democrats view HD 93 as one of their top pickup opportunities in 2026, especially if recent overperformance continues.

In nearby House District 101, Democrat Todd Delmay is challenging state Rep. Hillary Cassel, who won the seat in 2024 as a Democrat before switching parties shortly thereafter. The district is politically complex — while Trump narrowly carried it with 50.56% of the vote, the Democratic Senate candidate beat Rick Scott there by 2 points, and Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 11,000 registered voters.

Delmay argues that Cassel’s party switch has triggered widespread frustration, offering another opening for Democrats who are still, well, Democrats.

“I’m talking to voters every day who are not only furious at what the Trump and DeSantis administrations are doing, but at Cassel for flipping parties,” Delmay said. “People here voted for a Democratic representative to defend their rights and fight for affordability — and instead, Cassel turned on them.”

Democrats believe that anger, combined with national and local overperformance, could make HD 101 one of the marquee contests of 2026.

This doesn’t just represent an opportunity to claw back seats in the Legislature. Democrats also have opportunities in local races.

Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed former state Rep. Mike Caruso, a Republican, to serve as Palm Beach County Clerk of Court. He replaced Democrat Joe Abruzzo, who left the post to become Palm Beach County Administrator. Democrat Yvette Drucker is already running to challenge Caruso if he runs in 2026, or Republican Sam Thompson, who has already filed for the race.

A renewed Democratic surge would put Drucker in a strong position.

Whether these trends hold remains to be seen — a lot can change in a little less than a year — but operatives in both parties agree on one thing: South Florida is suddenly back on the map, and Democrats head into 2026 with more wind at their backs than they’ve felt in years.

A House committee advanced a constitutional amendment for property tax relief despite Democrats and government advocates voicing their objections about potential devastating major budget shortfalls for local communities.

The House Ways and Means Committee passed the resolution (JR 209) with a 10-5 vote. That means it is ready to go before the full House after the House’s State Affairs Committee and Select Committee on Property Taxes already OK’d it.

HJR 209 is one of several plans prioritized by the House to tackle the property tax issue.

This particular proposed constitutional amendment for the November 2026 ballot would create an exemption from non-school property taxes for $200,000 of a homestead property’s assessed value as long as the property is insured. 

The House committee adopted an amendment Wednesday that adds firefighters and first responders to law enforcement in a class that would be protected from budget cuts. First responders’ budgets would be required to be at the 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 level, whichever was higher, when property tax revenue decreases if HJR 209 takes effect.

Some Democrats voiced concerns that 911 dispatchers might not be protected from potential budget cuts. 

Rep. Demi Busatta, the bill sponsor, said those details who would be considered first responders would be worked out later on in implementing legislation, if voters passed it.

Busatta argued some local governments are spending unwisely, pointing to one rural county of only 15,000 residents — she didn’t say which one — where the County Administrator is paid $177,000 annually.

“Some cities need to take a hard look at how they structure their budgets and what they’re spending their money on,” the Coral Gables Republican said. “It’s not fair that the governments continue to fund their political wants on the backs of hardworking Floridians.”

But critics argued property taxes are the backbone for funding local government and HJR 209’s multibillion-dollar impact would devastate services. 

“We’re the great state of Florida, we don’t want to be Mississippi,” challenged Jeff Scala, a lobbyist for the Florida Association of Counties.

For instance, Port St. Lucie would face an 80% cut from the homestead property tax base and a 41% total assessed taxable value reduction, said Charles Chapman, a lobbyist for the Florida League of Cities. Deland in Volusia County would lose 85% in the homestead property tax base and a 35% drop in total taxable value, he said.

Chapman also argued property tax relief like this wouldn’t save taxpayers money since, in return, fees would skyrocket to cover local government services.

Scala compared property tax and the general fund revenue to a bucket with water. In his metaphor, the water was the local governments’ essential services.

“These proposals take a shotgun to that bucket,” he said. “The local governments, county governments, are expected to carry that water.”

But Republicans, unmoved, said they are hearing from residents demanding for their property tax bills to get lowered. Rep. Wyman Duggan, the committee’s Chair, told opponents to talk to local constituents instead of state lawmakers.

“You should be relishing the opportunity, rubbing your hands to get in front of your voters and make the case as to why your city should continue to exist,” the Jacksonville Republican said to those “who think this is bad policy.”

“A fiscally constrained county, that if it were a private enterprise and came to us for state grant funding or other types of funding, we wouldn’t fund because you’re economically unsustainable. But you may have a compelling argument as to why a county of 7,500 people should still exist and support the superstructure of local government. Make that case.”

One lawmaker asked Busatta why her proposal should be considered out of the eight different House options.

Busatta said she couldn’t speak to the others,though she said lightly, “I’ve heard overwhelmingly from many people that they think mine is the best” since her proposal doesn’t affect taxes paying for schools.

“Our voters are capable of deciding how they want their property taxes to be assessed,” Busatta said.

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Following Rob Long’s landslide win in House District 90 yesterday and better-than-expected showings in other 2025 elections, Democrats say they have the momentum to break GOP supermajorities in the state Legislature.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the national party’s state legislative campaign arm, announced it is adding both chambers to its national target list, framing the cycle as a “once-in-a-generation” opening to chip away at Republican dominance.

While Long’s win in HD 90 wasn’t a flip, his 28-point thrashing of Republican lobbyist Maria Zack represents a massive swing from last year, when Democratic former Rep. Joe Casello, who died in July, defeated his Republican opponent 56%-44%.

Florida Democrats have also celebrated stronger showings in the Special Elections for Senate District 15 and House District 40 — which were also keeps, not flips — as well as a pair of congressional contests earlier this year. The Democratic nominees lost those races, but the margins narrowed significantly compared with the 2024 General Election.

Overall, DLCC says its internal data shows a 4.5-point overperformance in state legislative races nationwide. If the party can replicate that in 2026, they argue, it would notch its most significant legislative gains in two decades.

With Florida’s addition, the party’s “2026 Target Map” now includes 42 state legislative chambers that run the gamut from preserving narrow majorities to breaking GOP dominance. Florida joins statehouse chambers in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and South Carolina, where Democrats are aiming to do the latter.

“The favorable political environment taking shape for Democrats is on a scale that only comes once in a generation, and the DLCC is poised to meet this moment through the largest target map and political budget ever. We aren’t wasting a moment to execute on our winning strategy by electing more state Democrats in Florida,” DLCC President Heather Williams said in a news release.

Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee Caucus Director Cassidy Whitaker is also projecting confidence, saying that the “Affordability Agenda” messaging from incumbents is resonating with voters and that “strong and serious challengers (are) stepping up” to run in Republican-held districts.

Florida Senate Victory’s Jena Kingery added that with DLCC in the mix, Democrats “are ready to reach every voter to turn the tide and make lasting inroads in legislative districts across the state.”

Evening Reads

—“The 53 utterly nuts lines from Donald Trump’s big Pennsylvania speech 🥜” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”At the first stop on his affordability tour, Trump mocks affordability” via Matt Viser of The Washington Post

—“Inside the Pentagon’s scramble to deal with boat strike survivors” via Damien CaveEdward Wong and Maria Abi-Habib of The New York Times

—”The concept of a plan (to sabotage Obamacare)” via Judd Legum, Rebecca Crosby and Noel Sims of Popular Information

—“Gov. Ron DeSantis releases $117B budget, prioritizing teacher and police raises” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—“Did immigration turn Miami blue?” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics

—”Older voters are gaining power. Young people are paying the price.” via Eric Levitz of Vox

—”Gov. DeSantis now says poorer counties will ‘eventually’ be on their own to deal without property taxes” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”State lawmakers greenlight sweeping audit of Miami Beach after request by Fabián Basabe” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—”Scientists thought Parkinson’s was in our genes. It might be in the water” via David Ferry of WIRED

Quote of the Day

“Eventually they’re going to have to figure it out.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on state funding to backfill rural counties if voters slash property taxes.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Gov. Ron DeSantis says fiscally constrained counties could ultimately get served a Snip Snip if the property tax cuts he’s seeking are approved. Meanwhile, his 2026-27 budget proposal nets a 117.

When Rep. Fabián Basabe’s call for an audit got the green light, Miami Beach officials were handed a Red Ledger.

Sen. Alexis Calatayud, Rep. Robin Bartleman and Rep. Chase Tramont each get a Champion Spritz for working to bring early learning priorities across the finish line last Session.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Panthers open 4-game road trip on winning streak

The Florida Panthers look to extend a winning streak as they travel to Utah to face the Mammoth tonight (9 p.m. ET, Scripps).

Florida (12-12-2, 30 points) is in sixth place in the NHL’s Atlantic Division, and only the Buffalo Sabres have earned fewer points in the Eastern Conference this season. It is an unusual position for the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champions to be in.

Florida has struggled on the road, losing six of 10 games away from home ice. The last two wins were at home and featured 11 goals across victories over Columbus and the New York Islanders.

The Panthers have been led this season by left winger Brad Marchand, who has scored more goals (16) and added more assists (15) than any player on the team. 

It is the third time the Panthers and Mammoth have faced each other. Last season, Florida won a pair of games, including a 4-1 win at Utah.

The Mammoth (14-14-2, 31 points) has lost consecutive games, including a 4-2 home loss to the Kings last time out. Utah ranks fourth in the Central Division and eighth in the Western Conference.

After tonight’s game, the Panthers continue on the road for three more games, including Monday at the Tampa Bay Lightning.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.