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The AI investing boom gets its posterboy: Meet Leopold Aschenbrenner

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Leopold Aschenbrenner begins his monograph Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead with one striking line: “You can see the future first in San Francisco.” 

What follows are 165 pages about what the future of AI will look like, drawn with clarity and theoretical forcefulness. The essay went viral and a new Silicon Valley wunderkind was born.

The fresh-faced 23-year-old—who had been fired from OpenAI and who began his career at FTX’s doomed philanthropy arm—was catapulted to new heights: He now runs a hedge fund managing more than $1.5 billion.

It’s a remarkable story in its own right. And as my colleague Sharon Goldman reported in a recent profile of the German-born Aschenbrenner, the story is all the more notable for the ways in which it’s clearly a sign of the times, and the divisive reactions the young AI researcher attracted. 

As Goldman writes: 

To some, Aschenbrenner is a rare genius who saw the moment—the coming of humanlike artificial general intelligence, China’s accelerating AI race, and the vast fortunes awaiting those who move first—more clearly than anyone else. To others, including several former OpenAI colleagues, he’s a lucky novice with no finance track record, repackaging hype into a hedge fund pitch. 

But why a hedge fund, and not a VC firm (this is Silicon Valley, not Greenwich, Connecticut, after all)? That was my first question, and I’m not the only one. Goldman garnered some insight from an LP who spoke on the condition of anonymity: 

Another investor in Situational Awareness LP, who manages a leading hedge fund, told Fortune that he was struck by Aschenbrenner’s answer when asked why he was starting a hedge fund focused on AI rather than a VC fund, which seemed like the most obvious choice.

“He said that AGI was going to be so impactful to the global economy that the only way to fully capitalize on it was to express investment ideas in the most liquid markets in the world,” he said. “I am a bit stunned by how fast they have come up the learning curve … They are way more sophisticated on AI investing than anyone else I speak to in the public markets.“ 

It’s a story worth reading, not only for its uncommonly interesting central figure—even for AI—but for the ways in which it touches on the intellectual subcultures surrounding tech, from effective altruism to rationalists. Read the whole story here.

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

Venture Deals

Starship Technologies, a San Francisco-based autonomous delivery company, raised $50 million in Series C funding. Plural led the round and was joined by Karma.vc, Latitude, and others.

Campfire, a San Francisco-based AI-native ERP, raised $65 million in Series B funding. Accel and Ribit co-led the round and were joined by Foundation Capital and Y Combinator.

Wild Bioscience, an Oxford, U.K.-based crop resilience company, raised $60 million in Series A funding. The Ellison Institute of Technology led the round and was joined by existing investors Oxford Science Enterprises, Braavos Capital, and the University of Oxford.

Viven, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of digital AI twins for employees, raised $35 million in seed funding from Khosla Ventures, Foundation Capital, FPV Ventures, Operator Collective, and others.

Prisma Photonics, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based large-scale infrastructure monitoring company, raised $30 million in Series D funding. Protego Ventures led the round and was joined by Adara Ventures and others.

MatrixSpace, a Burlington, Mass.-based developer of portable AI-enhanced radar counter drone sensing technology, raised $20 million in Series B funding. The Raptor Group and OTB Ventures led the round and were joined by L3Harris and others.

Aboon, a New York City-based AI-powered 401k platform for financial advisors, raised $17.5 million in seed funding. Bain Capital Ventures led the round and was joined by Altai Ventures, Runyon, and others.

LuxQuanta, a Barcelona, Spain-based quantum security company, raised €8 million ($9.3 million) in Series A funding. Big Sur Ventures led the round and was joined by others.

Trove AI, a San Francisco, Calif.-based developer of an AI teammate for private equity, raised $7.1 million in seed funding. Menlo Ventures led the round and was joined by Khosla Ventures.

Provision, a Toronto, Ontario-based developer of an AI copilot for construction estimators, raised $7 million in seed funding. Cercano Management led the round and was joined by Y Combinator, One Way Ventures, and others.

Matters.AI, a Wilmington, Del. and Bangalore, India-based developer of an AI security engineer for data, raised $6.3 million in funding across seed and pre-seed rounds. Kaalari Capital and Endiya Partners led the seed round and were joined by Better Capital, Carya Venture Partners, and others. Better Capital and Carya Venture Partners led the pre-seed round.

Woz, a San Francisco-based AI-powered app-building platform, raised $6 million in seed funding. Cervin Ventures led the round and was joined by Burst Capital, Y Combinator, Untapped Ventures, and others.

cto.new, a London, U.K.-based AI code agent, raised $5.7 million in pre-seed and seed funding from Kindred Ventures, PROfounders Capital, Wonder Ventures, and Entrepreneurs First

Aragorn AI, a Plano, Texas-based employee data platform, raised $4.3 million in seed funding. LiveOak Ventures led the round and was joined by Dallas Venture Capital.

SLNG, a London, U.K.-based global speech AI infrastructure platform, raised $3.9 million in pre-seed funding. Earlybird VC led the round.

Ploy, a London, U.K.-based cybersecurity startup, raised £2.5 million ($3.4 million) in funding. Osney Capital led the round and was joined by others.

Private Equity

Lone Star Funds agreed to take Hillenbrand, a Batesville, Ind.-based processing equipment and systems provider, private for approximately $3.8 billion.

Accel-KKR acquired a majority stake in Phocas Software, a Sydney, Australia-based business intelligence and financial planning & analysis company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

ARCHIMED acquired DermaPharm, a Fårup, Denmark-based developer of suncare, skincare, and haircare products. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Bonterra, backed by Apax Partners, acquired OneCause, a Carmel, Ind.-based developer of fundraising software. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Learning Pool, a portfolio company of Marlin Equity Partners, acquired WorkRamp, a San Francisco-based learning management system for mid-market companies. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Northrim Horizon acquired a majority stake in Solutions360 USA, a Mesa, Ariz.-based business management software provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Exits

S&P Global agreed to acquire With Intelligence, a London, U.K.-based investment intelligence platform, from Motive Partners, for $1.8 billion in cash.

Funds + Funds of Funds

AAF Management, a Washington, D.C. and Abu Dhabi-based venture capital firm, raised $55 million for a new fund focused on pre-seed, seed, and Series A technology companies.



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Google DeepMind agrees to sweeping partnership with the U.K. government

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AI lab GoogleDeepMind announced a major new partnership with the U.K. government Wednesday, pledging to accelerate breakthroughs in materials science and clean energy, including nuclear fusion, as well as conducting joint research on the societal impacts of AI and on ways to make AI decision-making more interpretable and safer.

As part of the partnership, Google DeepMind said it would open its first automated research laboratory in the U.K. in 2026. That lab will focus on discovering advanced materials including superconductors that can carry electricity with zero resistance. The facility will be fully integrated with Google’s Gemini AI models. Gemini will serve as a kind of scientific brain for the lab, which will also use robotics to synthesize and characterize hundreds of materials per day, significantly accelerating the timeline for transformative discoveries.

The company will also work with the U.K. government and other U.K.-based scientists on trying to make breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, potentially paving the way for cheaper, cleaner energy. Fusion reactions should produce abundant power while producing little to no nuclear waste, but such reactions have proved to be very difficult to sustain or scale up.

Additionally, Google DeepMind is expanding its research alliance with the government-run U.K. AI Security Institute to explore methods for discovering how large language models and other complex neural network-based AI models arrive at decisions. The partnership will also involve joint research into the societal impacts of AI, such as the effect AI deployment is likely to have on the labor market and the impact increased use of AI chatbots may have on mental health.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement that the partnership would “make sure we harness developments in AI for public good so that everyone feels the benefits.”

“That means using AI to tackle everyday challenges like cutting energy bills thanks to cheaper, greener energy and making our public services more efficient so that taxpayers’ money is spent on what matters most to people,” Starmer said.

Google DeepMind cofounder and CEO Demis Hassabis said in a statement that AI has “incredible potential to drive a new era of scientific discovery and improve everyday life.”

As part of the partnership, British scientists will receive priority access to Google DeepMind’s advanced AI tools, including AlphaGenome for DNA sequencing; AlphaEvolve for designing algorithms; DeepMind’s WeatherNext weather forecasting models; and its new AI co-scientist, a multi-agent system that acts as a virtual research collaborator.

DeepMind was founded in London in 2010 and is still headquartered there; it was acquired by Google in 2014.

Gemini’s U.K. footprint expands

The collaboration also includes potential development of AI systems for education and government services. Google DeepMind will explore creating a version of Gemini tailored to England’s national curriculum to help teachers reduce administrative workloads. A pilot program in Northern Ireland showed that Gemini helped save teachers an average of 10 hours per week, according to the U.K. government.

For public services, the U.K. government’s AI Incubator team is trialing Extract, a Gemini-powered tool that converts old planning documents into digital data in 40 seconds, compared to the current two-hour process.

The expanded research partnership with the U.K. AI Security Institute will focus on three areas, the government and DeepMind said: developing techniques to monitor AI systems’ so-called “chain of thought”—the reasoning steps an AI model takes to arrive at an answer; studying the social and emotional impacts of AI systems; and exploring how AI will affect employment.

U.K. AISI currently tests the safety of frontier AI models, including those from Google DeepMind and a number of other AI labs, under voluntary agreements. But the new research collaboration could potentially raise concerns about whether the U.K. AISI will remain objective in its testing of its now-partner’s models.

In response to a question on this from Fortune, William Isaac, principal scientist and director of responsibility at Google DeepMind, did not directly address the issue of how the partnership might affect the U.K. AISI’s objectivity. But he said the new research agreement puts in place “a separate kind of relationship from other points of interaction.” He also said the new partnership was focused on “question on the horizon” rather than present models, and that the researchers would publish the results of their work for anyone to review.

Isaac said there is no financial or commercial exchange as part of the research partnership, with both sides contributing people and research resources.

“We’re excited to announce that we’re going to be deepening our partnership with the U.K. AISI to really focus on exploring, really the frontier research questions that we believe are going to be important for ensuring that we have safe and responsible development,” he said.

He said the partnership will produce publicly accessible research focused on foundational questions—such as how AI impacts jobs or how talking to chatbots effects mental health—rather than policy-specific recommendations, though the findings could influence how businesses and policymakers think about AI and how to regulate it.

“We want the research to be meaningful and provide insights,” Isaac said.

Isaac described the U.K. AISI as “the crown jewel of all of the safety institutes” globally and said deepening the partnership “sends a really strong signal” about the importance of engaging responsibly as AI systems become more widely adopted.

The partnership also includes expanded collaboration on AI-enhanced approaches to cybersecurity. This will include the U.K. government exploring the sue of tools like Big Sleep, an AI agent developed by Google that autonomously hunts for previously unknown “Zero Day” cybersecurity exploits, and CodeMender, another AI agent that can search for and then automatically patch security vulnerabilities in open source software.

British Technology Secretary Liz Kendall is visiting San Francisco this week to further the U.K.-U.S. Tech Prosperity Deal, which was agreed to during U.S. President Trump’s state visit to the U.K. in September. In November alone, the British government said the pact helped secure more than $32.4 billion of private investment committed to the U.K tech sector.

The Google-U.K. partnership builds on a £5 billion ($6.7 billion) investment commitment from Google made earlier this year to support U.K. AI infrastructure and research, and to help modernize government IT systems.

The British government also said collaboration supports its AI Opportunities Action Plan and its £137 million AI for Science Strategy, which aims to position the UK as a global leader in AI-driven research.



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49-year-old Democrat who owns a gourmet olive oil store swipes another historically Republican district from Trump and Republicans

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Democrat Eric Gisler claimed an upset victory Tuesday in a special election in a historically Republican Georgia state House district.

Gisler said he was the winner of the contest, in which he was leading Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest by about 200 votes out of more than 11,000 in final unofficial returns.

Robert Sinners, a spokesperson with the secretary of state’s office, said there could be a few provisional ballots left before the tally is finalized.

“I think we had the right message for the time,” Gisler told The Associated Press in a phone interview. He credited his win to Democratic enthusiasm but also said some Republicans were looking for a change.

“A lot of what I would call traditional conservatives held their nose and voted Republican last year on the promise of low prices and whatever else they were selling,” Gisler said. “But they hadn’t received that.”

Guest did not immediately respond to a text message seeking comment late Tuesday.

Democrats have seen a number of electoral successes in 2025 as the party’s voters have been eager to express dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump.

In Georgia in November, they romped to two blowouts in statewide special elections for the Public Service Commission, unseating two incumbent Republicans in campaigns driven by discontent over rising electricity costs.

Nationwide, Democrats won governor’s races by broad margins in Virginia and New Jersey. On Tuesday a Democrat defeated a Trump-endorsed Republican in the officially nonpartisan race for Miami mayor, becoming the first from his party to win the post in nearly 30 years.

Democrats have also performed strongly in some races they lost, such as a Tennessee U.S. House race last week and a Georgia state Senate race in September.

Republicans remain firmly in control of the Georgia House, but their majority is likely fall to 99-81 when lawmakers return in January. Also Tuesday, voters in a second, heavily Republican district in Atlanta’s northwest suburbs sent Republican Bill Fincher and Democrat Scott Sanders to a Jan. 6 runoff to fill a vacancy created when Rep. Mandi Ballinger died.

The GOP majority is down from 119 Republicans in 2015. It would be the first time the GOP holds fewer than 100 seats in the lower chamber since 2005, when they won control for the first time since Reconstruction.

The race between Gisler and Guest in House District 121 in the Athens area northeast of Atlanta was held to replace Republican Marcus Wiedower, who was in the seat since 2018 but resigned in the middle of this term to focus on business interests.

Most of the district is in Oconee County, a Republican suburb of Athens, reaching into heavily Democratic Athens-Clarke County. Republicans gerrymandered Athens-Clarke to include one strongly Democratic district, parceling out the rest of the county into three seats intended to be Republican.

Gisler ran against Wiedower in 2024, losing 61% to 39%. This year was Guest’s first time running for office.

A Democrat briefly won control of the district in a 2017 special election but lost to Wiedower in 2018.

Gisler, a 49-year-old Watkinsville resident, works for an insurance technology company and owns a gourmet olive oil store. He campaigned on improving health care, increasing affordability and reinvesting Georgia’s surplus funds

Guest is the president of a trucking company and touted his community ties, promising to improve public safety and cut taxes. He was endorsed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, an Athens native, and raised far more in campaign contributions than Gisler.



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Rivian CEO says it’s a misconception EVs are politicized, with a 50-50 party split among R1 buyers

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If Rivian’s sales are any indication, owning an electric vehicle isn’t such a partisan issue, despite President Donald Trump’s rollbacks of mandates, incentives, and targets for EVs.

At the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said it’s a misconception that electrification is politicized, explaining that most customers buy a product based on how it fits their needs, not their ideology. The questions car buyers ask, he said, are the same whether they’re purchasing one with an internal-combustion engine or a battery: “Is it exciting? Are you attracted to the product? Does it draw you in? Does the brand positioning resonate with you? Do the features answer needs that you have?”

Buyers of Rivian’s R1 electric SUV are split roughly 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, Scaringe told Fortune’s Andrew Nusca. “I think that’s extraordinarily powerful news for us to recognize—that this isn’t just left-leaning buyers,” he added. “These are people that are saying, ‘I like the idea of this product, I’m excited about it.’ And this is thousands and thousands of customers. This is statistically relevant information.”

Buying an EV was once an indication of left-leaning politics, but the politics got scrambled after Tesla CEO Elon Musk became the top Republican donor and a close adviser to Trump. That drew some new customers to Tesla, and turned off a lot of progressive EV buyers, with many existing owners putting bumper stickers on their Teslas explaining that they bought their cars before Musk’s hard-right turn. Trump and Musk later had a stunning public feud, in part over the administration’s elimination of EV and solar tax credits.

But Scaringe said he started Rivian with a long-term view, independent of any policy framework or political trends. He also insisted that if Americans have more EV choices, sales would follow. Right now, Tesla dominates a key corner of the market, namely EVs in the $50,000 price range. Rivian’s forthcoming R2 mid-size SUV will represent a new choice in that market, with a starting price of $45,000 versus the R1’s $70,000.

Ten years from now, Scaringe said he hopes—and believes—that EV adoption in the U.S. will be meaningfully higher than it is today across the board, explaining that the main constraint isn’t on the demand side. Instead, it’s on the supply side, which suffers from “a shocking lack of choice,” especially compared to Europe and China, he added. EV options in the U.S. are limited by the fact that Chinese brands are shut out of the market.

More choices for U.S. EV buyers would presumably create more competition for Rivian—and indeed, the flood of low-priced Chinese EVs in other auto markets has created a backlash, with countries such as Canada imposing steep tariffs on them. But Scaringe appears to view more competition as positive for the market overall.

“I do think that the existence of choice will help drive more penetration, and it actually creates a unique opportunity in the United States,” he said.



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