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‘Is AI hurting growth?’ Top analysts say their clients are starting to worry as the 3-year bull market shows its age

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The bull market just celebrated its third anniversary, and top analysts on Wall Street are beginning to voice the previously unthinkable: Is artificial intelligence, the dynamo powering the great rally, actually kind of bad for economic growth? The consensus holds that AI will inevitably deliver large productivity gains, and that’s powered deals worth hundreds of billions of dollars into a throwback, 19th-century-style (or late-1990s-style) infrastructure boom. This has led to fears of bubble formation, with even Jeff Bezos saying recently, “[It’s] kind of an infrastructure bubble,” not one purely driven by financial speculation, and it will pay off for years, even generations.

“It seems you can’t go anywhere without talking about AI,” according to Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Global Research, whose team tackled the subject on Friday. “AI: It’s what everyone is talking about,” they said.

In BofA’s client discussions, according to Bhave’s team, “one of the most frequently discussed topics is AI and what it means for growth, productivity, and the labor market.” They concluded that they have not found evidence of AI usage leading to job losses, especially across white-collar occupations. “The productivity story seems to be winning, at least so far.” Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett and UBS’s Paul Donovan aren’t so sure.

Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, previously told Fortune she was “very concerned” about bubbly conditions around AI, and reiterated in an Oct. 1 research note that the rally is in its “seventh inning.” Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee flagged three concerns on their mind as the ball game nears its end: challenges in free cash flow growth among the so-called hyperscalers, speculative deal-making, and, finally, “slowing growth in key revenue segments.”

Paul Donovan, global chief economist for UBS Wealth Management, wrote on Friday that a simple question is haunting markets: “Is AI hurting growth?” He noted “the exuberance” around it, which “should be based on an expectation that investing today will generate higher economic output in the future,” and in that sense, AI is surely good for long-term growth. The problem, in other words, is closer to home, in those last two innings Shalett has been worrying about.

Growing debate among experts

Donovan’s analysis includes boosts to growth from the now-archetypal data centers leading to economic activity from construction workers, programmers, and so forth, which have helped lift U.S. growth. “But AI potentially lowers current growth by diverting resources,” he said. For example, he cited research by Bloomberg showing that as regional electricity prices are pushed higher by the power needs of data centers, the spiking bill for consumers results in less money to spend elsewhere in the economy. Likewise, energy-intensive businesses will face higher costs, too. This risks “creating a gap in the economic growth story,” Donovan said, because this dynamic could force some currently economically productive businesses to close. In other words, does the local small business have to die so the data center can live?

Morgan Stanley’s Shalett flags a different concern, that even the supposedly dynamic new AI-based businesses just aren’t growing so fast right now. She blames “market saturation or monopolies—as seen in search and digital advertising—and increasing competition,” citing cloud services, where new entrants are competing on price in a battle for market share. She’s also worried about huge amounts of venture capital flocking to fledgling business models, and advised investors to rethink their exposure to small-cap and unprofitable tech firms.​

Bhave’s team is generally more bullish. While allowing that risks aren’t off the table in the medium term, they argue that, for now at least, AI appears to be a “net positive” for growth. Just look at the GDP figures from the first half, which surprised even BofA’s relatively optimistic expectations. The rebound to an annualized rate of 1.6% is “particularly resilient considering the missing imports problem” in the first quarter owing to the Trump tariff shock, which “blurs the picture” a bit. Investment in AI is just a huge force driving the economy forward, they say.

Bhave’s team cited senior analyst Vivek Arya, who covers the semiconductors sector, and his bullish call that despite concerns about the medium term, capital expenditures will still power GDP growth. Arya previously told Fortune in an interview that he thinks jitters have to do with this particular time of year, the fourth-quarter crunch, as most businesses start thinking about what’s around the bend. Economist Owen Lamont calls it “panic season” in markets, and Shalett herself noted the S&P 500 has recently managed to defy the “September curse” of historically poor performance, delivering a nearly 3% gain.

Arya told Fortune that BofA has seen “in prior years right around this time … people get justifiably very nervous about what is going to be the amount of spending next year.” In the start of 2025, he added, clients expected cloud capital expenditures to only grow about 20% or so, but that’s been blown out of the water with 50% to 60% growth instead. “But now it’s the worry again for next year and the year beyond that.”

Another voice is former Obama administration economist Jason Furman, on the faculty at Harvard, who calculated in late September that without data centers, those GDP figures would look a bit different. Subtracting all that capex results in a growth of just 0.1% on an annualized basis for the first half of 2025. To Donovan’s point, some other productive activities would have taken its place, Furman added: “Absent the AI boom we would probably have lower interest rates [and] electricity prices, thus some additional growth in other sectors. In very rough terms that could maybe make up about half of what we got from the AI boom.” Still, the question of AI and growth isn’t a straightforward one.

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Paramount, Netflix spur Wall Street race to win jumbo loan deals

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In the space of less than a week, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. has unleashed two multi-billion debt deals that rank among the largest in the past decade.

The latest came from Paramount Skydance Corp. as it lined up as much as $54 billion of financing from Wall Street’s biggest firms to help support its $108 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros., just days after the company agreed to a deal with Netflix Inc.

Loans of this size have been few and far between over the past couple of years amid subdued acquisition activity. But that’s all changed recently amid a frenzy to fund data-center build outs in the race for artificial intelligence expansion, as well as a pick up in M&A.

Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. are providing the debt commitment to Paramount, according to a statement Monday. Each one of the trio has signed up for about $18 billion, or a third, of the total commitment, according to a filing.

Just late last week, Netflix lined up $59 billion of unsecured financing from Wells Fargo & Co., BNP Paribas SA and HSBC Plc in another bridge loan for its own bid for part of Warner Bros. Such bridge loans, a type of facility that’s usually replaced with permanent financing like bonds, are a crucial step for banks in building relationships with companies to win higher-paying mandates down the road.

Paramount’s bid at $30 a share in cash comes after Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. for $27.75 in cash and stock in a $72 billion deal. Paramount’s bid is for the entirety of Warner Bros., while Netflix is only interested in the Hollywood studios and streaming business. Paramount — which is backed by Larry Ellison, one of the world’s richest people — said its offer gives shareholders $18 billion more in cash than the Netflix bid would.

The Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners are backstopping the $40.7 billion equity financing for the Paramount bid. Affinity Partners, the private equity firm founded by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding Company PJSC and the Qatar Investment Authority are also financing partners. China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd., which had originally been listed as providing a $1 billion commitment, is no longer involved as a financing partner, according to the filing.

Ratings Game

While sizable, the financings for Netflix and Paramount don’t quite match the $75 billion of loans Anheuser-Busch InBev SA obtained to back its acquisition of SABMiller Plc in 2015, which amounted to the largest ever bridge loan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even so, Wall Street is looking to earn lucrative fees tied to a long-awaited revival in acquisitions. One or a small group of banks typically provide the initial bridge loan, and then bring in other banks to spread the risk once the acquisition is publicly announced. After a time, those loans are replaced with bonds sold to institutional investors.

One key difference with Paramount’s bridge loan is that it will be secured by the company’s assets. Netflix’s bridge is unsecured, meaning it’s not backed by specific collateral. That’s likely due to the different credit ratings each company has. 

Netflix, which is rated investment grade, is expected to replace its bridge loan with up to $25 billion of bonds, plus $20 billion of delayed-draw term loans and a $5 billion revolving credit facility, both of which are typically held by banks. Paramount has lower credit scores of a BB+ rating by S&P Global Ratings, which is one level below investment grade, and BBB- by Fitch Ratings, or on the cusp of junk.

The high-grade market typically has a deeper pool of investors and offers cheaper financing, and would be more easily able to absorb a large financing of this size.



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Parents are sacrificing retirement, taking second jobs, and liquidating investments for college

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Parents make countless sacrifices for their children. And now that college is more expensive than ever, they’re jeopardizing their own financial futures to try to secure their kids’. 

According to a survey of 1,000 parents from Citizens Bank, respondents say they are taking on a second job (19%), borrowing against their 401(k) or liquidating personal funds (30%), pausing investing entirely (26%), and cutting back on major purchases or vacations (66%). And more than 60% of parents reported they expect to delay their retirement in order to pay for their kids’ college education.

The cost of college has ballooned: It’s 40 times higher than it was in 1963, according to the Education Data Initiative. And between 2010 and 2023 alone, tuition costs at four-year public universities jumped more than 36%, Education Data Initiative said, with the average cost of college today nearly $40,000 per year.

That’s led more than 60% of parents to need to go “above and beyond” typical financing options like 529 plans and federal loans, according to the Citizens survey data. 

“Compared to just a few years ago, the pressure has increased due to rising tuition, inflation, and greater uncertainty around future costs,” Tony Durkan, vice president and head of 529 college savings at Fidelity, told Fortune. “Many families are still underprepared, often relying on rough estimates rather than clear savings goals.”

Financial sacrifices for a college education are ‘very risky

Pam Krueger, investment advisor and founder of Wealthramp, said the phenomenon of parents taking on side gigs, pulling money out of retirement, and refinancing their homes to pay for college is incredibly common. 

“It’s coming from a place of love and a desire to protect their kids from the burden of student debt—but it’s also very risky,” Krueger warned. “These choices can set parents back in a way that’s really hard to recover from.”

Part of the problem is the disconnect between college admissions and financial planning, according to Citizens. Survey data showed one in five parents admitted they just focused on getting their child into college without thinking about how to pay for it. And it’s such a touchy and embarrassing topic for parents,  almost 50% of survey-takers said they would rather talk to their children about drugs and alcohol. 

How to prepare to pay for college

While pulling money from retirement, taking on another job, or refinancing your home may feel like the only option to come up with enough funding for college, financial advisors say there are other options. 

Of course, a 529 savings plan can help—but that has a longer runway. These tax-advantaged plans can sometimes allow you to pay for tuition ahead of time, but many people save for many, many years to fund these accounts. 

Still, “the earlier you begin saving, the more time your money has to grow through compounding,” Durkan said. “Even small, regular contributions can add up significantly over time.” Plus, any funds that aren’t used can be transferred to a sibling, cousin, or back to yourself, meaning no wasted money—and it stays in the family, Krueger said.

But if it’s too late in the process—like if your kid is already in high school—an alternate strategy is needed. Krueger said this requires open and honest communication with your child about what you can actually afford. 

“Sit down with your child and talk openly about what’s realistic. Explore schools that are generous with merit aid or have transparent pricing,” Krueger said. “And look at the full cost—not just tuition, but room and board, books, travel. Sometimes the ‘big name’ school isn’t the best financial fit—and that’s okay.”

For parents just starting to plan for college while their children are in high school, Brian Safdari, founder and CEO of College Planning Experts, also suggests moving around investments and assets and as well as applying for grants, scholarships, merit-based aid, and institutional aid starting as early as ninth or 10th grade. Even private colleges with sticker prices of $95,000 or more a year could offer generous aid that make the final cost the same as a public school or even less, he told Fortune.

Still, “the expected cost minus savings minus free money will likely still leave a gap,” Safdari said. “Once we have that number, we can start figuring out how to fund it over four years, while minimizing student debt and leaving enough money to retire.”

A version of this story was published on Fortune.com on June 25, 2025.

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Apple won’t be the same in 2026 as these rising stars follow its biggest executive exodus in years

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Apple is experiencing the most extensive leadership transformation since its visionary CEO and cofounder Steve Jobs died in 2011, with a wave of departures across artificial intelligence, design, legal, operations, and financial divisions that will reshape one of the world’s most valuable companies.

The iPhone maker announced last week that Lisa Jackson, its vice president of environment, policy, and social initiatives, will retire in January, while Kate Adams, who has served as general counsel since 2017, will retire late next year. These departures follow a cascade of recent exits including AI chief John Giannandrea, who announced his retirement this month, and Alan Dye, the head of user interface design since 2015, who left to join Meta. Bloomberg also reported that Johny Srouji, Apple’s chief chip architect for Apple Silicon, is mulling an exit, but the 61-year-old executive threw cold water on those rumors Monday, saying “I love my team, I love my job at Apple” in a memo to staffers.

Speaking of Meta, Mark Zuckerberg’s social media empire has been the beneficiary of Apple’s exodus. Billy Sorrentino, another senior design director, chose to leave for Meta with Dye, and Ruoming Pang, who headed Apple’s AI foundation models team, also left for Meta in July, taking approximately 100 engineers with him. Ke Yang, who led AI-driven web search for Siri, and Jian Zhang, Apple’s AI robotics lead, also left for Meta this year.

But perhaps the biggest change at the top this year has been Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams, who decided to retire in July after 27 years with Apple. He was long considered the top candidate to succeed CEO Tim Cook. Also this summer, CFO Luca Maestri stepped back from his role to instead oversee corporate services starting in the new year, while Kevan Parekh took over as CFO.

Succession planning and Tim Cook’s future

The scale of the turnover has been striking, but the timing appears connected to succession planning. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times have reported that Apple is ramping up efforts to prepare for Cook, who turned 65 in November, to potentially retire in 2026. He has led the company since 2011 and grown its market cap from roughly $350 billion to $4 trillion.

John Ternus, Apple’s senior vice president of hardware engineering, has emerged as the leading internal candidate to replace Cook. Ternus, 50, joined Apple’s product design team in 2001 and has overseen hardware engineering for every generation of iPad, the latest iPhone lineup, and AirPods. He played a crucial role in the Mac’s transition to Apple silicon.

The choice of Ternus would mark a departure from Apple’s recent operational focus under Cook. While Cook and Williams both had operational backgrounds with expertise in global supply chains, Ternus brings technical hardware expertise. His selection would signal that Apple is prioritizing product innovation as it faces challenges in new categories like the Vision Pro and competition in artificial intelligence.

Apple’s new AI leadership

Apple is bringing in Amar Subramanya, a veteran of both Google and Microsoft, to lead its AI efforts. Subramanya spent 16 years at Google, eventually becoming head of engineering for Google’s AI assistant Gemini, before a brief stint at Microsoft as corporate vice president of AI. He will oversee Apple Foundation Models, machine learning research, and AI safety, reporting to software chief Craig Federighi.

Subramanya’s hire signals Apple’s determination to accelerate its AI capabilities after falling behind competitors like Google and OpenAI. His experience building large language models at Google positions him to help Apple develop competitive generative AI products, a critical battleground for tech companies in the coming years.

Apple’s new design leadership

On the design front, Stephen Lemay is replacing Dye as the head of user interface design. Lemay has been with Apple since 1999 and played a key role in designing every major Apple interface from the original iPhone to the latest operating systems.

The promotion of Lemay has reportedly been met with enthusiasm inside Apple. Blogger and podcaster John Gruber, who has covered Apple for decades and has deep ties within the company, wrote that employees are borderline “giddy” about Lemay taking over.

“Sources I’ve spoken to who’ve worked with Lemay at Apple speak highly of him, particularly his attention to detail and craftsmanship,” Gruber wrote. “Those things have been sorely lacking in the Dye era.”

This internal promotion contrasts sharply with how Dye’s departure was received. Dye had overseen UI design for a decade but faced internal criticism over design direction and product quality. Lemay’s appointment represents a return to the company’s design-first philosophy that characterized Apple’s earlier innovation phases.

Apple’s new operations and supply chain leadership

Sabih Khan, who has been with Apple for 30 years, took over as chief operating officer in July, succeeding Williams. Khan joined the executive team as senior vice president of operations in 2019 and has overseen Apple’s global supply chain for the past six years. Khan will also now oversee environment and social initiatives, taking on some of Lisa Jackson’s former responsibilities.

Khan’s appointment represents continuity in operations while consolidating responsibilities across the executive suite. His deep knowledge of Apple’s manufacturing and logistics networks positions him to navigate ongoing supply chain challenges, particularly as the company diversifies production beyond China.

Jennifer Newstead, currently Meta’s chief legal officer and a former legal adviser to the U.S. State Department, will become Apple’s general counsel on March 1, 2026. In a consolidation of responsibilities, Newstead will oversee both legal and government affairs, effectively merging the roles previously held by Adams and Jackson.

Newstead brings significant international law and regulatory expertise at a critical time for Apple. The company faces increasing scrutiny from antitrust regulators worldwide, particularly in the European Union and the United States. The Justice Department and 16 attorneys general filed an antitrust suit against Apple last March, alleging the company’s policies hamper competition and make it difficult for consumers to switch phones. A trial date is not yet set, but suffice to say Newstead’s work will be cut out for her once she starts.

Her appointment underscores Apple’s focus on navigating complex regulatory environments while addressing regulatory challenges around AI development and data privacy. Her experience in government affairs at Meta, where she managed relations with policymakers globally, makes her well-suited to handle Apple’s expanding regulatory obligations.

Apple’s new financial leadership

Kevan Parekh assumed the chief financial officer role on January 1, 2025, replacing Luca Maestri, who had held the position since 2014. Parekh brought deep familiarity with Apple’s financial operations, having worked in the company’s finance division previously. His transition to CFO continues Apple’s pattern of promoting experienced insiders to top roles, though his tenure also reflects the company’s need for steady financial stewardship amid market volatility and shifting investor expectations.

Apple’s inflection point

The departures span functions critical to Apple’s competitive position. Beyond the visible departures, Apple has lost significant talent in AI research to its competition in Silicon Valley, namely Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI. Apple is attempting to address this through high-profile hires like Subramanya, but the scale of departures suggests internal friction or strategic shifts that pushed executives to explore opportunities elsewhere.

The consolidation of responsibilities—particularly having Newstead oversee both legal and government affairs, and Khan handling operations and environmental initiatives—suggests Apple is also tightening its executive structure. This could be driven by cost considerations or by a desire to create clearer lines of authority as the company prepares for potential leadership transitions.

Despite the upheaval, Apple is positioning these changes as strategic rather than reactive. The transitions of Williams, Maestri, and others were described as “long-planned successions” in company announcements. Cook has publicly praised the incoming leaders and emphasized continuity, even as Apple assembles what amounts to an entirely new leadership team for its next chapter.

Cook himself remains a question mark. While some reports suggest he could retire in 2026, the executive has been adamant about his plans. In January, Cook told CNBC he would never retire, at least in “the traditional way,” adding he would “always want to work.” Still, all the reliable reporting since that on-air interview points to scenarios in which Cook will step back from day-to-day operations.

Looking ahead

Whether this new generation can maintain Apple’s innovation momentum while navigating AI competition, regulatory pressure, and the eventual departure of Cook himself remains the defining question for the company’s future. The success of Ternus, Newstead, Lemay, Khan, and Subramanya will determine whether Apple can accelerate its AI capabilities, maintain design excellence, navigate regulatory challenges, and sustain the company’s position as one of the world’s leading tech companies.

The changes also reflect a shift in Apple’s strategic priorities. Under Cook, the company has excelled in operational efficiency and global supply chain management. But under Ternus—if he indeed becomes CEO—the company may place greater emphasis on hardware innovation and product differentiation, particularly in emerging categories where AI and design intersect.

The appointment of Subramanya to lead AI, combined with the return of Stephen Lemay to design, suggests Apple is doubling down on what made it successful in the first place: breakthrough products with cutting-edge technology with thoughtful design.

It all suggests 2026 will be a pivotal year for Apple, which is expected to accelerate its AI efforts, roll out new phone designs, and fend off regulators to secure long-term positioning in the rapidly changing landscape.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



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