Business

Global selloff underway as traders sour on U.S. government shutdown and doubts about Fed rate cut schedule grow

Published

2 months ago

October 10, 2025

Stocks sold off in Asia this morning and Europe ticked down as well. U.S. futures were marginally down before the bell following yesterday’s 0.28% decline in the S&P 500. Analysts pointed to the U.S. government shutdown, where a resolution is nowhere in sight. And some no longer see two more rate cuts from the Fed coming this year.

It’s not chaos but it’s not good: The S&P 500 lost 0.28% yesterday and futures this morning are flat—suggesting that traders are unenthusiastic about bidding the market higher. Meanwhile, markets lost ground right across Asia. China’s CSI 300 closed down nearly 2% after the government there announced strict new export controls on rare earth materials. The controls will hobble both the U.S. tech companies that rely on them for semiconductor chips and the Chinese companies that supply them.

The Nikkei 225 was down after Japan’s government lost a coalition partner.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 were both marginally down in early trading.

The backdrop is a negative vibe shift on Wall Street. The government shutdown now looks like it will be long, rather than short. Polymarket odds show more than 90% of traders betting on October 15 or later for an end to the shutdown.

“The mood music hasn’t been helped by the government shutdown, which is now entering its 10th day. And the fear is that the longer it lasts, the worse the economic impact will be, as increasing numbers of workers miss paychecks from here,” Jim Reid and the team at Deutsche Bank said in a note this morning.

The shutdown will marginally increase unemployment, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics: “September’s payroll report likely will be released about three working days after the shutdown ends. October payrolls will be unaffected by the shutdown, but the unemployment rate will be lifted by 0.2pp,” Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen said in a note to clients.

The negativity is compounded by the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, which show that Fed members may not be as keen on delivering two more rate cuts this year as Wall Street had assumed. (Stock traders like interest rate cuts because cheaper money generally inflates stock prices.)

“Fed’s Barr said ‘the FOMC should be cautious about adjusting policy so that we can gather further data […] and better assess the balance of risks’ and suggested that the FOMC should be sceptical about calls to look through tariff induced inflation. Meanwhile, Fed’s Daly struck a different tone saying that the labour market is ‘worrisome’ and calls for ‘risk management’ amidst ‘modestly restrictive’ monetary policy,” RBC’s Peter Schaffrik noted this morning.

Macquarie agreed: “Based on the FOMC Minutes, Fed officials were not very dovish in midSeptember. And since then, non-official inflation indicators don’t point to less inflation, but rather to more inflation. With stocks rallying, gold spiking, and corporate credit spreads remaining tight, the … implied probability of a Fed cut on October 29 – now at 96% – seems to be too high. The right ballpark should be a 50-75% probability,” Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry told clients.

Looking forward, Pantheon noted that when the FOMC members are rotated next year, the new incoming members may be more hawkish on rates than the ones they replace.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

S&P 500 futures were down marginally this morning. The index closed down 0.28% in its last session.
STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.2% in early trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.14% in early trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.01%.
China’s CSI 300 was down 1.97%.
The South Korea KOSPI was up 1.73%.
India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.51% before the end of the session.
Bitcoin held at $121.4K.

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Business

Hinge’s founder and CEO is stepping down to start a new AI-first dating app

Published

19 minutes ago

December 11, 2025

Jace Porter

After more than a decade as CEO of Hinge, Justin McLeod is stepping down to launch another dating app—with an AI twist.

McLeod started Hinge in 2011 and spent more than a decade at the helm, including after Match Group acquired the company in 2019. The company’s president and chief marketing officer, Jackie Jantos, will take over as CEO.

McLeod’s new dating app, Overtone, plans to use “AI and voice tools to help people connect in a more thoughtful and personal way,” according to a press release. Yet, few further details are known about the venture.

“We’re not going to talk a lot about [Overtone] quite yet,” McLeod told Fast Company, “except to say that there’s an opportunity to completely reimagine the dating experience and how technology can help facilitate people finding their partner—that breaks the mold of the way current dating apps are designed.”

Overtone started as a project within Hinge, but is now spinning off to operate independently. Still, it will continue to have ties to Match Group, which will lead the company’s first funding round in 2026 and plans to hold a “substantial ownership position.” Match CEO Spencer Rascoff will also sit on the board of directors, while McLeod serves as chairman of the board.

Match Group did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

The new venture comes as dating apps have struggled to maintain users. A 2024 study from Forbes found more than three quarters of dating-app users experienced some sort of “swipe fatigue,” and many said the burnout they experienced was linked to not being able to make genuine connections.

Some data from the biggest market player, Tinder, dovetails with these sentiments. The app is down more than 1.5 million paying users from its peak in 2022, according to Fast Company. Match Group, which apart from Hinge also owns Tinder, Match.com, and OkCupid, reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase in its latest quarter, yet Tinder’s paying customers dropped by 7%, according to the Wall Street Journal. To be sure, a bright spot in the company’s third quarter was Hinge, whose paying users increased 17%.

Amid potentially stagnating interest in dating apps, Match Group companies, as well as competitors Bumble and even Facebook Dating, have increasingly turned to AI to try to rekindle users’ interest. Earlier this year, Hinge launched a feature called “prompt feedback” that uses AI to help improve users improve the responses they give to public-facing prompts such as “my happy place.”

Bumble and Tinder have also both added tools that use AI to analyze users’ photos and present the most appealing. Yet, it’s unclear if users are actually looking for more AI in their dating lives. In a study of 1,000 dating app users by Bloomberg Intelligence, nearly 50% of respondents said they didn’t have problems making a dating profile on their own, without AI.

While McLeod’s new project, Overtone, started within Match Group, he said it made more sense for the new dating app to be an independent company so it could move at the fastest possible pace. During his tenure, Hinge grew from less than $1 million in revenue in 2017 to roughly $400 million by 2023. He told Fast Company he was eager for a fresh challenge and to take the reins once more.

“I’m a founder and CEO at heart,” he said. “There’s a piece of me that wants to be out there on my own, ultimately steering the ship again.”

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Business

Jobs outlook 2026: ADP’s Nela Richardson doesn’t see Wall Street’s ‘rosy’ picture

Published

50 minutes ago

December 11, 2025

Jace Porter

For all the volatility 2025 has endured, things have actually turned out relatively well: The S&P 500 is up by more than 17%, inflation hasn’t spiked despite an onslaught of tariffs, and the unemployment rate has stayed fairly steady.

Analysts and investors are generally feeling positive about 2026 as a result—after all, the U.S. economy’s performance has been above expectations since the pandemic, so why not take a bullish stance in the face of huge fiscal stimulus?

Well, beneath the relatively robust macroeconomic picture, cracks are beginning to show. Those tremors are already being felt; just look at the Fed’s decision to cut the base rate yesterday despite arguments that, under normal circumstances, there would be no particular reason to. Markets expected the cut based on the labor outlook, which is showing some signs of weakness in what Fed chairman Jerome Powell has called a “low-hire, low-fire” economy.

That weakness looks likely to become something of a fixture in 2026, according to ADP’s chief economist, Dr Nela Richardson. ADP’s take on the economy has grown in prominence this year, partly due to the government shutdown which meant public payroll data wasn’t published. In the void came data from ADP, which shares private payroll data insights.

Unlike her economist peers on Wall Street, Richardson tells Fortune: “We’re tracking changes in real time, it’s as high frequency as payroll data [can] get and we have not seen this rosy picture for 2026 in the data. I think [when people] point to an improved labor market next year, they’re highlighting a couple of things in the macro economy, while we’re looking at this very granular data set of private employment.

“They’re highlighting maybe a couple of rate cuts, they’re highlighting some tax advantages on the fiscal side, and they’re probably highlighting some AI and investment paying off—and certainly they’re probably adding some clarity in terms of trade policy and resolving some of the macro [questions]. All fantastic attributes, but it takes longer for those to trickle to mom and pop.”

Richardson points to the latest jobs reporting from her company: U.S. private employment dropped by 32,000 roles in November, lead by weakness from smaller businesses. Companies with between one and 19 employees axed 46,000 roles, while those with 20 to 49 employees cut 74,000. Conversely, companies with 500-plus employees added 39,000 employees.

“Tiny firms are a big chunk of employment, but the tiny firms are making tiny moves, and they’re moving all in the same direction,” Richardson added. “It could be as small as not hiring two teenagers at the bakery or foregoing that delivery driver over a certain season, it doesn’t mean it’s a big, huge layoff, it’s not replacing a worker here or there, and those changes add up.

“If you’re making those micro moves, micro decisions for mom and pop [businesses], these macro drivers are less likely to influence your patterns.”

A rapidly evolving picture

Once upon a time, a sound work ethic and perseverance were enough to get you a foot on the career ladder. In 2025, that’s no longer the case—just ask the business leaders at the top of some of America’s largest corporations.

And while it’s true Gen Z are facing an entirely different job market to their parents, the rules of engagement are evolving so rapidly that market entrants one year to the next are facing a different set of hoops to jump through—making the picture for 2026 all the more complex.

These shifts have not happened in a vacuum, says Richardson, but are more a culmination of trends over the past five years. The so-called “Great Resignation” and the advancement of hybrid work are chief among them. Hybrid work, for example, means the pool of competition has expanded rapidly with hiring managers no longer constrained to a certain geography.

Likewise, “the Great Resignation meant people were able to demand their own terms,” Richardson added. “That meant hybrid work, that meant higher salaries and bonuses, all kinds of promotions happened during that time. Why leave?”

These factors mean the goalposts are constantly changing for market entrants: “It’s not even generation to generation,” Richardson says. “It’s your older brother and sister who graduated three or four years ago, it’s not even their job market anymore.”

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Business

Business leaders make their 2026 predictions for the Magnificent 7

Published

1 hour ago

December 11, 2025

Jace Porter

Good morning. What do business leaders predict next year for the Magnificent 7? They know all too well how Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have delivered more than half of the S&P 500’s gains in recent years, setting a high bar for everyone else to clear. But things change: One minute, Alphabet is behind the curve on AI and then Google’s latest Gemini launch sparked a ‘Code Red’ from ChatGPT’s Sam Altman.

Earlier this week, while speaking with former Cisco CEO John Chambers about his tech predictions for the year ahead, our discussion turned to his outlook for the Magnificent 7. Having built Cisco from a router manufacturer to the world’s most valuable company in March 2000—and since nurtured a new generation of unicorns through JC2 Ventures—Chambers is a student of market shifts.

He believes 2026 will be a year of divergence within the Magnificent 7. “Two or three do real well, two or three do not do well at all and you have one or two in the middle,” he told me. “If I were betting on momentum today, I would bet Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Nvidia. By the way, Google would not have made that list a year ago.”

I subsequently asked two dozen leaders at the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference and the Fortune CEO Initiative dinner in San Francisco for their views on the Mag 7. Alphabet was also the winner. The primary source of enthusiasm is Gemini 3, its latest AI model. Though as one CEO cautioned: “I’m more confident about the health of the business than the health of the stock.”

Microsoft and Nvidia were more of a toss-up for second among the leaders I polled. A Fortune 100 leader pointed out that Microsoft has “deep relationships in the enterprise and something tangible to offer in AI,” while an enterprise-tech leader pointed to its struggles with Copilot. As for Nvidia: “I’d rather be in Jensen’s seat than anywhere else,” said one AI founder.

The company that prompted most debate: Amazon. Some ranked it top as a growth bet for next year, saying it’s gaining on AI rivals; others said last, arguing it’s “not attracting top talent.” Several were lukewarm for reasons ranging from recession fears to the Netflix-Warner Bros. deal. Meta also got a mixed prognosis, with one entrepreneur telling me “you can’t win with low morale.”

Apple and Tesla attracted the most pessimism. Several leaders pointed to the departure of key leaders at Apple, along with its mature product line and lack of visible leadership in AI. And the word cloud around Tesla included “China,” “distracted,” “policy risk,” “consumers,” and “Elon Musk.” Said one dinner attendee: “Go test drive a BYD.”

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

The Fed’s jobs data fears

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, despite the biggest revolt among policy makers since 2019. In explaining the cut, Chair Jerome Powell suggested that federal jobs data could be inaccurate. Rather than adding 40,000 jobs a month since April, the U.S. could be losing 20,000 jobs a month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ so-called birth-death statistical model has a tendency to juice job numbers; the agency is revamping it in February, which may produce more accurate figures.

What Powell should focus on

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell “risks the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility” if he continues to primarily blame weak demand for the slowdown in hiring rather than AI,” according to a new analysis shared with Fortune by KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk. Cutting rates won’t help declining labor rates if AI and immigration are the true culprits, Swonk argues.

Oracle’s reality check

The Fed decision had boosted markets Wednesday, but Oracle’s disappointing earnings served as a reality check, reigniting concerns about AI overspending. The cloud giant said its capital spending will hit $50 billion next year, up $15 billion from previous estimates, but it missed analysts’ targets for cloud sales and infrastructure business revenue.

DeepMind x U.K.

Google DeepMind, an AI lab, is partnering with the U.K. government to achieve breakthroughs in materials science and clean energy, including nuclear fusion, and to study the societal impacts of AI and ways to make AI decision-making more interpretable and safer. DeepMind will open its first automated research center in the U.K. in 2026 as part of the collaboration.

Circle CEO praises Trump for embracing crypto

In this week’sepisode of Leadership Next, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire credits the Trump administration with creating an “innovation-forward, technology-forward, entrepreneur-forward environment.” Allaire, once a kid who traded baseball cards, went from being a lone wolf in Washington to having one of the most influential IPOs of the year.

Disney nominates former Apple COO to board

Disney nominated Jeff Williams, the former Apple COO who retired last month after 27 years with the company, to its board of directors. In a press release, Disney praised Williams’ “leadership and unique experience at the intersection of technology, global operations, and product design.” Williams will stand for election at Disney’s 2026 annual shareholders meeting.

The markets

S&P 500 futures were down 0.57% this morning. The last session closed up 0.67%. STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.11% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.06% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.9%. China’s CSI 300 was down 0.86%. The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.59%. India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.55%. Bitcoin is down at $90K.